Since 2010, the NFL draft has been punctuated by surprising picks, often occurring in the early rounds. These picks typically fall into two categories: players chosen much higher than expected or selections at positions where there seems to be minimal need, such as quarterbacks.
One notable example is Tyson Alualu, who, despite low first-round projections, was selected 10th overall by the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2010. Alualu went on to have a successful NFL career, showcasing the unpredictability of draft day decisions.
Another surprising pick was Tim Tebow in 2010, chosen by the Denver Broncos with the 25th pick after concerns about his throwing motion caused him to slide down the draft board. While Tebow had a memorable season in 2011, his time as a primary starter was short-lived, highlighting the uncertainty of draft outcomes.
Bruce Irvin’s selection by the Seattle Seahawks with the 15th pick in 2012 was unexpected, as he was projected to be a Day 2 pick. Despite initial surprise, Irvin had a respectable career, spending over a decade in the NFL and winning a Super Bowl with the Seahawks.
The Buffalo Bills’ decision to draft EJ Manuel in 2013 over more touted prospects like Ryan Nassib and Geno Smith was a shock to many. Unfortunately, Manuel’s tenure with the Bills was marked by disappointment, illustrating the risks associated with unexpected draft choices.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ selection of kicker Roberto Aguayo in the second round of the 2016 draft was widely criticized, as specialists are typically not considered early-round prospects. Aguayo’s brief stint in Tampa underscored the importance of prioritizing positions of greater value in the draft.
In 2020, the Green Bay Packers surprised many by trading up to select Jordan Love as a potential successor to longtime starter Aaron Rodgers. Similarly, the Philadelphia Eagles drafted Jalen Hurts in the second round despite Carson Wentz’s presence as the starting quarterback.
While these decisions raised eyebrows initially, both Love and Hurts have shown promise in their respective roles, demonstrating that surprising draft picks can sometimes pay off.
