The College Football Playoff (CFP) committee faces a pivotal question in the next three weeks: Should it favor a 4-4 split or a 5-3 breakdown?
No, this isn’t about defensive formations—it’s about the distribution of teams between the Big Ten and SEC.
As of the third CFP rankings, each of these Power 2 conferences has four teams in the mix, with the SEC aiming to secure a fifth slot and the Big Ten looking to retain its four.
This debate could persist unless Notre Dame, an independent, falters in one of its final two games against Army or USC, potentially reshuffling the dynamic.
Conference Battles and Brand Perceptions
If Ohio State secures a win against Indiana on Saturday, the discussion will center on the Hoosiers and the interplay between “brand bias” and “brand-new” appeal.
Brand Bias
Yes, “brand bias” exists, but it’s not just about the logo on the helmet. Programs like Ohio State, Alabama, Georgia, Penn State, Notre Dame, Oregon, and even Ole Miss have earned credibility with multiple New Year’s Six appearances.
Their track records matter. For example, despite two losses, Georgia has faced five top-25 opponents this season—a testament to its strength of schedule.
Brand-New Bias
On the flip side, there’s undeniable excitement surrounding upstart programs like Indiana. First-year head coach Curt Cignetti has injected energy into the Hoosiers, making them a fan favorite.
Should Indiana defeat Ohio State, it could topple the Big Ten hierarchy, appealing to those drawn to fresh narratives.
The last time Indiana beat Ohio State, Bobby McFerrin’s “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” topped the charts—a reflection of how rare such moments are.
How the CFP committee balances these contrasting perspectives will be critical. With Big Ten and SEC fans fiercely invested in the 4-4 vs. 5-3 split, tensions are high.
Would Tennessee or Ole Miss fans accept being edged out by a one-loss Indiana team? Unlikely.
A Look at the CFP Bubble
With the stakes this high, here’s an analysis of teams on the bubble, including the final two currently in the projected 12-team field and those striving to make the cut.
CFP Bubble Teams: Last Two In (Week 13)
1. No. 7 Alabama (8-2)
The Crimson Tide boast wins over Georgia, Oklahoma, and Auburn but carry a blemish from their loss to Tennessee, currently outside the field.
Despite this, their strong conference-winning percentage keeps them in contention.
2. No. 10 Georgia (8-2)
Georgia has clawed back into the mix but needs help to secure anything beyond a first-round playoff game.
Their performance hinges on limiting turnovers; when committing fewer than two in FBS games, they’ve won by an average of 16 points. However, they’re just 3-2 in games with two or more turnovers.
Teams Still Fighting for CFP Berths
3. No. 9 Ole Miss (8-2)
Ole Miss remains a wildcard, with its win over Georgia offset by a disappointing loss to Kentucky—the Wildcats’ lone SEC victory. Rebels fans face scrutiny from Tennessee supporters as both vie for relevance.
4. No. 13 SMU (9-1)
As the only undefeated team in ACC play, SMU controls its fate. Ranked sixth nationally in scoring (39.9 points per game), the Mustangs face Virginia in Week 13. However, they remain a “win-or-else” bubble team.
5. No. 11 Tennessee (8-2)
Despite defeating Alabama and being the only SEC contender to face both the Crimson Tide and Georgia, Tennessee’s résumé has not impressed the CFP committee enough to move them into the field.
6. No. 15 Texas A&M (8-2)
The Aggies, ranked sixth among SEC teams, still have a shot at the SEC Championship but must go throuygh a challenging road test at Auburn before facing in-state rival Texas. There’s zero room for error.
7. No. 16 Colorado (8-2)
Colorado continues to rise in the rankings, driven by an impressive offense led by Heisman hopefuls Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter.
With games against Kansas and Oklahoma State looming, the Buffaloes are a threat to disrupt the Big 12 championship race.
Their current four-game win streak, marked by a 19.3-point margin of victory, underscores their momentum.
As the playoff picture evolves, the drama surrounding the Power 2’s dominance, emerging contenders, and committee decisions will only intensify.
For fans, the question remains: Can the right balance be struck between tradition and innovation?
