Houston Astros shortstop Jeremy Peña showed promise as a rookie, but his performance last season raised some concerns. According to MLB data from BrooksGate, Peña ended up among the bottom 30 players in the league when ranked by Win Probability Added (WPA), with a negative value of -2.20.
For context, this was the same number as Washington Nationals pitcher Patrick Corbin, who finished with a 5.62 ERA, the worst in baseball last season.
So, what went wrong for Peña last year?
To start, Peña posted a career-low .266/.308/.394 slash line with 15 home runs and 70 RBIs. He struggled significantly in the final month of the season, finishing with a poor .231/.271/.319 line. While Peña has never been an exceptional hitter, this was still a noticeable drop.
His OPS+ was exactly at 100, which is league average, meaning he wasn’t helping his team much offensively. WPA measures how a player’s performance helps or hurts a team’s chances of winning, so Peña’s lack of impact at the plate contributed to his low ranking.
His defense also took a hit. Peña had won a Gold Glove in his rookie year with a Fielding Runs Value (FRV) of five, but that number dropped to -2 last season, showing a significant decline.
Despite these struggles, it’s important to remember that Peña is still a young player, entering his fourth professional season at 27 years old. While his offense and defense weren’t up to par last season, it’s reasonable to expect improvement. His WPA was actually better than in 2023 when he posted a -3.23. His rookie year remains his best with a WPA of 1.23.
The Astros also had a bright spot in the form of superstar Yordan Alvarez, who finished with the 14th-best WPA in MLB at +3.96, showing that while Peña struggled, Houston still had standout performances on the roster.
In short, while Peña’s numbers last season were disappointing, it’s too soon to give up on the young shortstop. There’s still plenty of potential for him to bounce back in 2025.
