As Spring Training approaches, major speculation looms: Which starters will be in the rotation, and who will be out?
“We’re not going to have a nine-man rotation, so there’s going to be guys that are going to be in Triple-A. There’s going to be guys that are going to go to the bullpen,” Reds president of baseball operations Nick Krall said on Jan. 2. “And there are going to be some competitions.”
Here is an alphabetical look at who the Reds will have in the mix for their rotation:
Andrew Abbott
The lefty put everyone on notice as he went 6-2 with a 1.90 ERA over his first 10 starts while setting a club record by beginning his big league career with 17 2/3 scoreless innings. Over the next 11 starts, he had a 6.42 ERA with only one outing lasting a full six innings.
Graham Ashcraft
Ashcraft led the club with 26 starts and 145 2/3 innings last year but also endured an up-and-down season and injuries. He had a 2.00 ERA over his first six starts, a 12.82 ERA over the next eight starts, and a 2.58 ERA over his final 12 games. He missed most of September to have right foot surgery that repaired two broken toes but is expected to be fully ready for camp.
Hunter Greene
Greene has something none of the other young starters currently have: a multiyear contract. He signed a six-year, $53 million deal in April and will earn $3 million in 2024. Injuries and inconsistency have dragged Greene’s electric ability during his first two seasons. He’s 9-20 with a 4.62 ERA over 46 career starts.
Nick Lodolo
A lefty with an elite curveball that helped him post a 3.66 ERA in 19 starts as a rookie in 2022, Lodolo’s first two big league seasons have also been marred by injuries. He was limited to seven starts with a 6.29 ERA last year and was done in May because of a stress reaction in his left tibia. Proving he can be both effective and healthy will be paramount for Lodolo.
Nick Martinez
When the Reds signed Martinez to a two-year, $26 million contract in December, they considered him a “rotation candidate.” The right-hander lacks a track record as a full-time starter. He has been a swingman in both starting and relief roles for the Rangers (2014-17) and Padres (2022-23). In between were four seasons of pitching in Japan. His 2.32 ERA in nine starts for San Diego last year has the Reds feeling bullish.
Frankie Montas
This was a one-year, $16 million signing with a big risk-reward component. Montas was limited to 1 1/3 innings of relief near the end of the 2023 season with the Yankees because he had to recover from right shoulder surgery. His last full season was in 2021 with the A’s, but it was a good one. He was 13-9 with a 3.37 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 207 strikeouts in 187 innings across 32 starts. If the Reds get that version of Montas, their rotation immediately looks intimidating.
Connor Phillips
Ranked No. 4 in the organization and No. 68 overall by MLB Pipeline, Phillips turns 23 in May and has an exciting fastball and slider. His five big league starts were uneven. He had only 11 Triple-A appearances before getting his big league promotion in September.
Lyon Richardson
Another prospect (No. 14 in the organization) who took some lumps during four big league starts last season, Richardson, is a power arm the organization is so high on it wouldn’t part with him in talks during last summer’s Trade Deadline.
Brandon Williamson
The big left-hander was struggling at Triple-A Louisville before his May big league callup, but Williamson made the most of his opportunity and never went back. He had a 4.46 ERA in 23 starts for Cincinnati.
Somehow, the Reds believe all of these starting pitchers can play a role at different points in 2024. Attrition from injuries could play a key factor.
“Everybody’s going to come in and compete for a spot,” Krall said. “We hope everyone’s healthy. But the fact is the average team used about 15 16 starters last year. So you’re going to have some guys that are going to end up being delayed into the season. That’s reality.”
The bar to exceed last year’s results isn’t high. Reds starters ranked 28th in the Majors with a 5.43 ERA, and their 787 innings were the eighth fewest in MLB. Cincinnati tied a club record by using 17 starters last season, which also tied two clubs for most in the National League.
For the Reds to overtake their NL Central foes, their rotation will need to be elite. They will find out in a couple of months what combination of five starters best achieves that mission.
