The latest College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings are anticipated to see some significant changes following unexpected losses by teams like Georgia and Miami. Five CFP-ranked teams were defeated over the weekend, with Alabama’s victory over LSU as the sole game that wasn’t considered an upset. Indiana has emerged as an intriguing team, performing well above expectations in the initial rankings and continuing its momentum with a competitive win.
Many are curious about where the committee will position Indiana in this week’s rankings, given that they’ve already shown a willingness to rank Indiana higher than predicted. This week’s rankings will reflect both the recent outcomes and the committee’s balancing act of prioritizing head-to-head matchups, which could become harder as more games lead to upsets.
The CFP committee’s ranking criteria include a combination of factors such as conference championships, head-to-head results, and strength of schedule, in addition to games against common opponents and records against ranked teams. The committee’s definition of “ranked opponents” is based on the previous week’s CFP rankings rather than the more traditional AP Top 25 or Coaches Poll, which have preseason starting points. By using only its own rankings, the committee’s assessment can often diverge from conventional rankings, causing surprise or confusion for fans accustomed to seeing teams placed based on traditional polls.
A significant challenge this season lies in evaluating teams’ strength of schedule (SOS), particularly as major conferences like the Big Ten have expanded to 16 teams. This has created varied schedules within conferences, where some teams face far more competitive opponents than others. For example, Indiana’s remaining schedule includes only one ranked opponent, Ohio State, while Purdue has already played several highly ranked teams, with more to come. This disparity in scheduling requires the committee to carefully evaluate each team’s SOS on a deeper level, which could impact their final rankings considerably.
While “game control” and scoring margins aren’t officially listed as factors, they still tend to influence the committee’s decisions. Though “game control” is an unofficial term, it is frequently mentioned by the committee chairman when explaining why certain teams rank where they do. Teams that dominate their opponents and dictate the flow of play are often viewed favorably, as it implies a level of consistency and strength that goes beyond the final score. This subjective element of the ranking process is balanced with objective data, making each committee member’s assessment slightly unique.
Ultimately, the CFP rankings remain a subjective mix of data-driven analysis and individual judgment from the 13 committee members, each of whom might weigh criteria differently. This season, the rankings are likely to lean heavily in favor of SEC and Big Ten teams, given the strength of these conferences.
Fans should expect this dominance from top-tier conferences, and as these conferences continue to pull ahead, the CFP selection process may become more challenging to balance. The increasing divide between top conferences and others could have a lasting impact on the college football playoff rankings in the years to come.
Here’s a table summarizing the predicted College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings for the teams, including brief notes on each team’s recent performance and upcoming games:
| Rank | Team | Summary | Previous Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oregon | Oregon remains undefeated among the Power Four teams after a win over Maryland. They’re favored against Wisconsin this week. | 1 |
| 2 | Ohio State | Ohio State had a decisive win over Purdue and has one more game against Northwestern before facing Indiana. | 2 |
| 3 | Texas | Texas dominated Florida, keeping them tied with Texas A&M and Tennessee in the SEC. They’re vying for the SEC title in their first season. | 5 |
| 4 | Penn State | The Nittany Lions continue to handle their schedule and face Purdue this week, which has struggled recently. | 6 |
| 5 | Tennessee | Despite an injury scare, QB Nico Iamaleava is expected to play in a crucial game at Georgia this week. | 7 |
| 6 | Miami (Fla.) | Miami was upset by Georgia Tech in a close game, marking their ceiling for this week’s rankings. | 4 |
| 7 | Indiana | Indiana narrowly beat Michigan 20-15, with a bye week before facing Ohio State in a key matchup. | 8 |
| 8 | BYU | BYU barely defeated Utah after a controversial call and now prepares to face an improving Kansas team. | 9 |
| 9 | Alabama | Alabama defeated LSU in a 42-13 blowout, keeping their CFP hopes alive. | 11 |
| 10 | Notre Dame | Notre Dame defeated Florida State but saw little impact on their strength of schedule. | 10 |
| 11 | Ole Miss | Ole Miss overpowered Georgia defensively with a 28-10 win and remains in SEC title contention. | 16 |
| 12 | Georgia | Georgia has lost twice but faces must-win games ahead, starting with a big game against Tennessee. | 3 |
| 13 | Boise State | Boise State drops a spot despite a win over Nevada, facing their last opponent with a winning record, San Jose State, this week. | 12 |
| 14 | SMU | After Miami’s loss, SMU leads the ACC standings and has a chance for a CFP bye if they continue their strong season. | 13 |
| 15 | Texas A&M | Texas A&M had a bye to prepare for New Mexico State, hoping for an easy win. | 14 |
| 16 | Kansas State | Kansas State needs assistance to stay in the Big 12 title race, being part of a five-team tie at 4-2. | 19 |
| 17 | Colorado | Colorado narrowly defeated Texas Tech to maintain its position in the Big 12 title race. | 20 |
| 18 | Louisville | Louisville requires significant help to reach the ACC title game but remains a strong bowl contender. | 22 |
| 19 | LSU | LSU’s CFP hopes are slim, but with two conference losses, they still have a shot at the SEC title. | 15 |
| 20 | Washington St. | Washington State is on track for a high-tier Pac-12 bowl if they can finish strong at 11-1. | 21 |
| 21 | Clemson | Clemson returned to form with a win over Virginia Tech and seeks more notable wins, starting with Pitt this week. | 23 |
| 22 | South Carolina | South Carolina defeated Vanderbilt and enters the rankings with some tough games remaining, including Clemson. | NR |
| 23 | Iowa State | Iowa State has suffered two losses in a row, most recently to Kansas, with a longshot chance at the Big 12 title. | 17 |
| 24 | Missouri | Missouri needs a quality win but has no high-profile opponents left on the schedule. | 24 |
| 25 | Army | Army prepares for Notre Dame, hoping to avoid the fate Navy experienced in a recent blowout loss to them. | 25 |
