Roki Sasaki, the 23-year-old Japanese pitcher, has chosen the Los Angeles Dodgers as his Major League Baseball team. He’s widely regarded as one of the most exciting young pitchers to come from Japan in years, boasting an impressive fastball that can reach triple digits, a devastating splitter, and a potential that has had scouts and analysts eagerly awaiting his move to MLB.
With a career ERA of 2.10 and 505 strikeouts over 394⅔ innings with the Chiba Lotte Marines, Sasaki has already achieved plenty in Japan, including two perfect games in 2022. Now, he’ll try to follow in the footsteps of other successful Japanese pitchers like Yu Darvish and Kodai Senga in Major League Baseball.
However, despite his incredible talent, Sasaki is not yet considered a finished product. Scouts and evaluators who have watched him closely in Japan warn that while his potential is vast, there are areas where he still needs to develop before reaching the top of MLB pitching. Below are five major takeaways from experts on Sasaki’s transition to Major League Baseball.
Sasaki Won’t Be an Ace – Yet
One of the most telling signs of Sasaki’s maturity is his self-awareness. Before meeting with MLB teams, he gave each team a homework assignment, asking them to explain why his fastball velocity had dropped in the previous season and how they would help him avoid such a drop in the future.
This shows that he is confident and forward-thinking, even at such a young age. Although his potential to be an ace is clear, scouts caution that he won’t be one immediately. Sasaki could start his MLB journey in the minors, or even as a back-of-the-rotation option to begin with. His decision to enter the MLB early instead of waiting a few years for a bigger payday shows his drive, but it also reflects that he still has room to grow.
His Splitter Is Unhittable
Sasaki’s splitter has been described in terms like “devastating” and “f—ing nasty,” with some scouts rating it as an 80-grade pitch. His splitter, which mirrors his fastball in appearance, travels at 88-92 mph and drops dramatically, often fooling hitters. Scouts believe his splitter might be the best secondary pitch in baseball.
Even Japanese hitters, who are known for handling splitters better than MLB hitters, struggle to hit Sasaki’s version. Though some say his splitter took a slight step back in 2024, it is still an elite pitch and will likely be one of the most feared weapons in MLB.
His Fastball Needs Improvement
While Sasaki’s fastball is certainly fast, hitting triple digits at times, some scouts have criticized its quality, with some calling it flat. This could be a problem in MLB, where hitters are more accustomed to high velocities. In Japan, Sasaki got away with it more often, but major league hitters might time up his fastball more easily.
The good news is that Sasaki is aware of this and has worked on diversifying his pitches. His goal is to improve his fastball, especially with better command on inside pitches, while also utilizing his slider and two-seam fastball more. If he can refine these aspects, his fastball will become a much more effective weapon.
His Workload Will Be a Concern
Sasaki has shown he can handle the spotlight, having starred in Japan’s prestigious high school baseball tournament and earned a No. 1 draft pick in 2019. However, his career in Japan has seen relatively light workloads, with his highest innings total in a season being just 129⅓.
Scouts believe Sasaki will need to be eased into a major league rotation, with a six-man staff potentially helping to limit his innings. While durability concerns exist due to his build and the heavy workload of his delivery, many believe Sasaki can adjust, especially as he gains more experience in MLB. Some experts predict that he will eventually add weight, which could help him handle the physical demands of pitching in the majors.
There Will Be Growing Pains, but He Can Handle Them
Sasaki’s journey to MLB will not be without its challenges. He will have to adjust to a new ball, mound, and culture, and he will be facing a completely different type of competition. But Sasaki has proven to be a deep thinker and someone who is always working to improve.
Even in 2024, when MLB scouts were watching his every move, Sasaki focused more on development than immediate results. This maturity and analytical mindset suggest that he can handle the transition, even though there will be inevitable growing pains. Sasaki is someone who holds himself accountable and is willing to take a step back when necessary to make long-term improvements.
While Sasaki might not immediately dominate Major League Baseball, his skill set and determination make him one of the most intriguing young pitchers in recent memory. If he can refine his fastball, improve his command, and adjust to the demands of the MLB schedule, he could very well develop into one of the game’s elite pitchers. For now, fans can expect to see flashes of brilliance from Sasaki, but also some bumps along the way as he adjusts to his new league.
