Baseball is grappling with historically low batting averages and record-breaking pitching speeds. “It’s tough to score runs. It’s getting harder,” remarked Minnesota manager Rocco Baldelli. “Pitchers are improving with each game.”
The MLB batting average stood at .240 in April and .239 in May, marking the lowest since 1968’s “Year of the Pitcher” when it hit .237. As temperatures rose from spring to summer, it edged up to .246 in June and .250 in July, per the Elias Sports Bureau.
Yet, the overall season average of .243 heading into the All-Star break remains among the lowest since the end of the dead-ball era in 1920, comparable to figures from 2022 and 1968.
Commissioner Rob Manfred noted concerns about the decline in batting average, highlighting its impact on the game’s pace and excitement.
The trend isn’t confined to the majors; minor league batting averages have also dropped from .256 in 2019 to .243 this year.
Dave Roberts, manager of the Los Angeles Dodgers, noted the significant rise in pitching velocities since his playing days ended in 2008, with the average four-seam fastball now clocking in at 94.2 mph.
Last year saw a surge in pitches exceeding 100 mph, reaching 3,880 compared to just 214 in 2008, with 461 such pitches recorded in Triple-A this year alone.
“You can feel it as a hitter. Pitchers are using high fastballs more,” said Dylan Crews, a top draft pick now playing in Washington’s Triple-A team.
In response to shorter attention spans, MLB has introduced limits on defensive shifts since 2023 and a pitch clock to reduce downtime. This has helped trim the average nine-inning game time from 3 hours and 4 minutes in 2022 to 2 hours and 36 minutes this season.
However, scoring remains low at 4.39 runs per team per game, slightly down from 4.62 last year and up from 4.28 in 2022. Despite this, hitters have slightly reduced their strikeout rates to 8.36 per team per game this season, the lowest since 2017.
“There’s more spin rate. There’s harder throwers,” noted San Diego star third baseman Manny Machado. “There’s just so much information and I think that’s what makes hitting a little bit harder.”
The percentage of fastballs — four-seamers, sinkers, and cutters — is 55.5% this year, slightly higher than last season’s 55.4%. It was 62.5% in 2015.
Spin rates on sliders, sweepers, and slurves have risen from 2,106 revolutions per minute in 2015 to 2,475 this year, with their usage climbing from 10.9% to 22.5%. Teams meticulously analyze video and data to give pitchers guidance and provide hitters with strategies.
The Dodgers have several roles dedicated to baseball systems applications, platforms, strategy, quantitative analysis, product development, integrative baseball performance, performance innovation lab, and baseball innovation.
Through constant analysis, pitchers are instructed on what, when, and how to pitch. Atlanta’s Max Fried employs seven pitches: four-seamer, sinker, cutter, slider, sweeper, curveball, and change-up.
“The information is so widespread that there are no secrets,” Fried explained. “Baseball still relies on changing speeds and varying looks. If you can keep hitters off balance, you increase your chances of success.”
The New York Yankees constructed a pitching lab named the “Gas Station” at their minor league complex in Tampa, Florida, ahead of the 2020 season, a type of facility that is now becoming more widespread.
Pitchers from professionals down to high schoolers have visited Driveline in Kent, Washington, to enhance their pitching arsenals. The term “pitch shape” has become commonplace.
“You could go long periods, months maybe, where teams were not adding new pitches,” Baldelli said. “And now you see almost every series, you run in against a team and someone’s doing something completely different.
I think the fear has kind of left the major league clubhouses when it comes to making adjustments.”
