With its unprecedented path through the very warm waters of the southeastern Caribbean, Beryl has confirmed meteorologists’ fears of an intense hurricane season. Now, Texas is next in line.
Beryl made landfall on Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula as a Category 2 hurricane on Friday, then weakened to a tropical storm. It’s expected to reach southern Texas by Sunday night or Monday morning, possibly strengthening back into a hurricane as it moves over the warm Gulf of Mexico.
Jack Beven, a senior specialist at the National Hurricane Center, anticipates Beryl will hit somewhere between Brownsville and just north of Corpus Christi on Monday. The forecast suggests it will be a strong Category 1 storm, but the center acknowledged that the storm could become stronger if it remains over water longer than expected.
The Gulf’s warm waters provide favorable conditions for Beryl to intensify quickly, a pattern observed several times already.
“We should prepare for the possibility that Beryl will intensify rapidly before making landfall, possibly becoming a major hurricane,” said Jeff Masters, co-founder of Weather Underground and a former government hurricane meteorologist.
He noted that while a Category 2 storm is likely, a Category 3 cannot be ruled out.
Beven mentioned that the official forecast predicts Beryl could increase its wind speed by 17 to 23 mph within 24 hours, although earlier in the Caribbean, the storm intensified more rapidly than expected.
“People in southern Texas need to closely monitor Beryl’s progress,” Beven emphasized.
Both Masters and Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami, praised the hurricane center for its accurate tracking of Beryl’s path so far.
Beryl has undergone rapid intensification three times in its short lifespan of one week, defined as a gain of 35 mph in wind speed within 24 hours according to official weather service criteria.
The storm quickly increased from 35 mph to 75 mph on June 28. It then surged from 80 mph to 115 mph overnight from June 29 to June 30, and on July 1, it ramped up from 120 mph to 155 mph in just 15 hours, according to records from the hurricane center.
Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University who uses a different tracking system, identified eight instances when Beryl underwent rapid intensification—a rare event in the Atlantic during July, happening only twice before.
MIT meteorology professor Kerry Emanuel isn’t optimistic about Beryl experiencing another 35 mph wind speed jump in the Gulf of Mexico, though he noted that such predictions are challenging.
Beryl’s rapid and unprecedented growth into a powerful storm early in the season underscores the warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic and Caribbean. Experts warn that this could set the stage for more active hurricane activity throughout the season.
Even before reaching major hurricane strength, Beryl broke several records, including becoming the earliest Category 4 storm in June with winds of at least 130 mph (209 kilometers per hour).
It also achieved the earliest rapid intensification, with wind speeds increasing by 63 mph (102 kph) in just 24 hours, transitioning from an unnamed depression to a Category 4 storm within 48 hours.
According to Klotzbach from Colorado State University, Beryl is seen as a sign of things to come.
Forecasters had predicted months ago that this would be a severe year, drawing comparisons to the historically busy 1933 and deadly 2005 hurricane seasons, which included storms like Katrina, Rita, Wilma, and Dennis.
