What a way to end the NFL regular season. The Minnesota Vikings (14-2, 12-4 ATS) travel to play the Detroit Lions (14-2, 10-5 ATS) to decide who will win the NFC North title and secure the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs.
The loser will drop to the No. 5 seed and will have to start the postseason on the road.
The Lions won the first game between these two teams in Week 7, with a score of 31-29.
Sunday’s final game of the regular season will be held at 8:20 p.m. ET, broadcast on NBC/Peacock.
The latest odds are as follows, from ESPN BET:
Game lines
- Spread: Lions -3 (opened Lions -3)
- Moneyline: Lions -150, Vikings +130
- Over/Under: 56.5 (opened 51.5)
First-half spread:
- Lions -1.5 (-105), Vikings +1.5 (-115)
- Vikings first-half points: 13.5 (Over -105/Under -125)
- Lions first-half points: 14.5 (Over -105/Under -125)
Player props
Passing
- Sam Darnold total passing yards: 274.5 (Over -135/Under +105)
- Darnold total passing TDs: 1.5 (Over -210/Under +160)
- Jared Goff total passing yards: 274.5 (Over -140/Under +110)
- Goff total passing TDs: 1.5 (Over -190/Under +150)
Rushing
- Jahmyr Gibbs total rushing yards: 89.5 (Over -105/Under -125)
- Aaron Jones total rushing yards: 59.5 (Over -105/Under -125)
Receiving
- Justin Jefferson total receiving yards: 99.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
- Amon-Ra St. Brown total receiving yards: 79.5 (Over -Even/Under -130)
- Jordan Addison total receiving yards: 59.5 (Over -135/Under +105)
- Jameson Williams total receiving yards: 59.5 (Over -105/Under -125)
- Sam LaPorta total receiving yards: 49.5 (Over -130/Under -Even)
- T.J. Hockenson total receiving yards: 44.5 (Over -130/Under -Even)
- Gibbs total receiving yards: 34.5 (Over -105/Under -125)
Ben Solak’s pick
Vikings +3 (-120)
In one of the few games where both teams are expected to be competitive, the situation is predictable, so it’s easier to find advantages.
While I do see the Lions as a small favorite in this game, I only have them as a 1-point favorite, considering their current defensive situation. Getting the key number of three with the Vikings at the time of this bet, even with the juice, is the side we’d like to take.
Jameson Williams OVER 59.5 receiving yards (-110), Williams anytime TD (+125)
Liz Loza: With the Lions not having a strong pass rush and Sam Darnold’s impressive performance in Week 17, a lot of money is being placed on Minnesota. The Vikings’ defense might be the key to securing the No. 1 seed in the NFC. But that doesn’t mean the Lions won’t fight hard. Detroit never gives up. It will be interesting to see how Ben Johnson uses his playmakers.
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Though Sam LaPorta has been dominant lately (scoring a touchdown or surpassing 100 receiving yards in three straight games), I don’t trust another big game for him in Week 18. Not with linebacker Ivan Pace Jr. back for Minnesota.
With Pace strengthening the middle of the field, quarterback Jared Goff is likely to focus on the outside. The Vikings have allowed the second-most receiving yards to outside wide receivers (115.5 per game), so it’s a smart move.
Jameson Williams stumbled in his first game against Minnesota, but he wasn’t as involved in the offense back then. Since returning from his two-game suspension in Week 10, he has averaged 1.6 more targets per game than he did earlier in the season.
He’s averaged almost 76 receiving yards and scored four touchdowns (including three in his last three games). Given the high stakes, Williams should have a strong performance.
Jordan Addison OVER 69.5 receiving yards and 5+ receptions (+125)
Daniel Dopp: I’ll stick with the same pick one last time to end the regular season. The Lions have struggled against wide receivers, giving up the most yards and the second-most receptions in the NFL. In the past three games, they’ve allowed over 1,085 passing yards, the most in the league by almost 200 yards.
Addison has been hitting his reception line easily in the second half of the season, though his yardage is a bit higher than usual. He has only surpassed 70 yards three times this season, but this matchup against the Lions’ weak secondary could help him hit this mark.
With the high total of 56.5 points for the game and two of the worst pass defenses in the NFL facing off, there are many reasons to believe this bet could work out. If you also want to add in an Addison anytime TD, the odds would turn into +280.
Betting trends and more
Courtesy ESPN Research
- The Lions are 7-0 ATS against the Vikings under Dan Campbell and have covered in eight straight matchups.
- Six straight Vikings-Lions games have gone over the total.
- The Vikings have covered in four straight games and are 12-4 ATS this season, tied for the best record in the NFL.
- The Vikings are 4-0 ATS as underdogs this season.
- The Vikings have won 14 games after starting with a win total of 6.5, which is tied for the most wins over their win total in the last 35 seasons.
- The Lions are 0-3 ATS in their last three home games.
- Under Campbell, the Lions are 46-21 ATS, the second-best ATS record over a four-year period in the Super Bowl era (2004-07 Chargers: 42-19-3).
