The Kansas City Chiefs are very familiar with the challenge of facing an exceptional quarterback. Their defense practices against Patrick Mahomes every day, which could be useful as they prepare for the AFC Championship game this weekend.
Josh Allen is currently the closest quarterback to Mahomes in the NFL. Like Mahomes, Allen can extend plays, avoid sacks, and take over games when needed. Even though the Chiefs were able to limit Allen’s performance in their Week 11 matchup by holding him to a modest 83.5 passer rating, they still saw his talent shine through during key moments of the game.
As the rematch approaches, the Chiefs are looking for ways to make it harder for the Bills’ offense. Head coach Andy Reid spoke to the media on Monday and highlighted third-down performance as an area the defense is focusing on.
“Yeah, so one of the things we’ll keep working on is you’ve got to be able to get off the field on third downs,” Reid said. “We keep stressing that, [defensive coordinator] Steve [Spagnuolo] does, so you’ve got to be able to take care of those third downs, especially when you’ve worked so hard to put yourselves in a good position.
Listen, the Bills do a heck of a job with that. They’re a really good football team, offensively.”
In their previous game in November, the Bills were exceptional on third downs. They converted one fourth down and finished 9-for-15 (60%) on third down attempts. They also succeeded on two of their three third-down tries in the fourth quarter, keeping their drive alive and leading to an Allen rushing touchdown that effectively ended the game.
Advanced stats also show how well the Bills performed in these situations. According to rbsdm.com, the Bills had a remarkable 0.61 EPA/play average on late downs. This included an 80% success rate on their five rushing attempts and a 0.76 EPA/play on 14 passing attempts.
In contrast, Buffalo’s offense was much less efficient on early-down plays, with a 23% success rate and no net gain. The game was decided when the pressure was highest on each of those drives.
Although the Chiefs are focusing on improving their defense in these situations, it’s unclear if they can find a solution. During the regular season, the Bills ranked seventh in third-down conversion rate, while the Chiefs’ defense was ranked 26th at preventing third-down conversions. In the playoffs, Kansas City allowed the Houston Texans to convert 10 out of 17 third downs (59%), while Buffalo managed to convert 5 out of 11 (45%) against the Baltimore Ravens.
Something will have to change this Sunday. This game is shaping up to be a critical battle, and whichever team can win the third-down battle may very well be the one to advance to Super Bowl LIX.
