While the recent trade involving the Padres and the White Sox has undoubtedly sparked excitement among baseball enthusiasts, particularly fans of the Padres, its impact on the fantasy baseball realm is somewhat limited.
Unless you’re part of the increasingly rare breed still engaged in AL- or NL-only formats – and if you’ve already conducted your draft in such leagues, brace yourself for potential surprises.
My apprehension regarding Cease never hinged on the jersey he wears. Sure, one could argue that moving to a better ballpark might favor him, and in terms of win-loss statistics, it’s worth noting that the Padres possess a glimmer of hope compared to the White Sox’s bleak outlook.
However, home runs weren’t Cease’s primary concern. His performance could swing drastically regardless of his supporting cast.
What exactly do I mean by this? Let me illustrate with this graphic:
One season, he’s a runner-up for AL Cy Young. The next, he’s wreaking havoc on your ERA and WHIP. And then there are the strikeouts – oh, the strikeouts.
They’re the reason hope persists, the reason Cease was one of the most talked-about trade assets this offseason. They’re why the Padres, a team that already parted ways with Juan Soto earlier, decided to double down for 2024 (including a piece they acquired in the Soto deal).
But can he consistently throw strikes?
That’s the perennial question for Cease, whose pitching prowess is undeniably awe-inspiring. Just take a look at some of his spring training highlights:
For what it’s worth, he’s delivered 83.1% of his pitches for strikes this spring, tallying 14 strikeouts in 8 1/3 innings. Granted, it’s a small sample size – a pitcher typically leading the league with 70% accuracy – but given Cease’s history of inconsistency (he only managed 61.8% last year), it’s noteworthy.
I couldn’t help but notice the renewed buzz surrounding him as he garnered attention with his performance. Yet, it’s somewhat unfortunate that much of the focus this spring has been on his trade potential rather than any adjustments he might have made following a disappointing season.
However, we’re all aware of the potential outcomes, the more probable scenarios. Even in his near-Cy Young season, Cease topped the majors in walks, only managing to throw 62.2% of his pitches for strikes. His low .260 BABIP likely contributed to his WHIP, but it probably wasn’t sustainable. Conversely, his .330 BABIP last year might not be sustainable either.
A middle ground, like his .309 BABIP in 2021, where he achieved a 13-7 record, 3.91 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 226 strikeouts, is what I anticipate for Cease in 2024. Assessing the risk versus reward, he remains a top-25 starting pitcher in my book, just as he was before the trade.
Am I eager to draft him at this point? I’m warming up to the idea. Even with his potential downsides (assuming good health), he still ranks among the league leaders in strikeouts, and unlike last year, he’s going late enough in drafts to accommodate potential ERA and WHIP contingencies.
However, if the increased attention elevates him in the starting pitcher rankings, surpassing names like Justin Steele and Zach Eflin, I might reconsider. I’ll need more assurances at that stage of the draft.
So, that’s the state of affairs with Cease. But what about the ripple effects of this deal?
Among the prospects heading back to the White Sox, Drew Thorpe stands out, particularly considering the Padres acquired him from the Yankees in the Soto deal. The 23-year-old led the minors with 182 strikeouts last year and showcased remarkable durability, often pitching deep into games.
While his fastball is solid, it’s his changeup that truly shines, although some talent evaluators have reservations about his profile. Nonetheless, the White Sox may call upon him sooner rather than later, much like the Padres would have.
Jairo Iriarte is another noteworthy pitching prospect, boasting a more conventional power profile with expected control challenges. He lags behind Thorpe in Dynasty leagues and is also a step behind on the minor-league ladder.
Cease’s departure from the rotation opens up a spot for left-hander Garrett Crochet, a former prospect who’s been impressing with his velocity this spring. Drafted 11th overall in 2020, Crochet has primarily pitched in relief (albeit with some injury struggles), but his upside warrants consideration in later rounds, especially in leagues where his relief pitcher eligibility can be exploited.
