AFC Divisional Round
(3) Baltimore Ravens at (2) Buffalo Bills
After three first-time matchups in the wild-card round, the AFC playoffs will have rematches. The Ravens easily beat the Bills in Buffalo in September, with Lamar Jackson completing 13-of-18 passes for 156 yards and three touchdowns, including one on the ground. Derrick Henry was the star, running for 199 yards, including an 87-yard touchdown in the first quarter.
While Henry is an elite running back, it would be surprising if he could do the same against the Bills, who are fifth in success rate against the run. They’ll have better personnel to stop him, especially at linebacker. In the September game, the Bills’ linebackers were Baylon Spector, Dorian Williams, and Nicholas Morrow. Spector spent most of the second half of the season on injured reserve, Williams has been used part-time in recent weeks, and Morrow was cut and then rejoined the Bills after Spector’s injury.
The linebackers in this divisional round matchup should be Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard, which is a big upgrade for Buffalo. However, Milano is still recovering from a broken leg and biceps tear and missed a lot of time. Though Milano has played two full games this season, he’s been inconsistent, with a missed tackle rate of 33.3%. That might be a problem against Henry and Jackson.
Another issue for the Bills is that they don’t blitz much. Buffalo blitzes at the fifth-lowest rate in the league, but opposing defenses often blitz Jackson out of necessity. Jackson has been blitzed the second-highest rate of any quarterback this season. When defenses don’t blitz, Jackson often picks them apart, throwing 25 touchdown passes and only one interception against teams that drop into coverage.
In the September game, the Bills blitzed Jackson only three times on 18 pass plays, and he went 12-of-15 for 139 yards and two touchdowns against four-man rushes. The Bills can’t afford to play their usual defensive style against this version of the Ravens.
The Ravens’ win over the Bills was one of Josh Allen’s worst games of the season, but it’s not typical for him. Allen, who was sacked 14 times all season, was sacked three times in that game, including twice on exotic blitzes. The Bills went 3-for-13 on third down, their second-worst performance of the season. The Ravens’ defense was aggressive with blitzes and unique coverages, which threw Allen off. Though Allen can often escape pressure or find quick solutions, he couldn’t do either against the Ravens.
The Ravens have also been strong against scrambling quarterbacks, allowing only 10 scramble yards per game, the fourth-best in the league. Allen had just seven scramble yards in the September game, the second-lowest of his season. He’s talented enough to perform without scrambling, but if the Ravens can limit his ability to run, it takes away an important way for the Bills to gain easy yardage.
While Allen is still excellent, he might not be able to take advantage of the Ravens’ weakness in defending passes to the middle of the field. The Ravens are ranked 30th in QBR allowed on throws to the middle of the field, and although their defense has improved, this remains a problem. Allen ranks 19th in QBR on throws to the middle and fourth on throws to the outside, which is where the Ravens are strongest with cornerbacks Marlon Humphrey and rookie Nate Wiggins.
The Ravens may not have the same success they had earlier this season against Allen, but they are a tough matchup for him, and their defense has been strong lately. If Milano can’t return to form and Henry is still a force, Buffalo could be in serious trouble.
Prediction: Ravens 23, Bills 20
(5) Los Angeles Chargers at (1) Kansas City Chiefs
No team led by Jim Harbaugh will be afraid of any opponent, and the Chargers believe they can beat the Chiefs. In their first game against each other in September, the Chargers took a 10-0 lead before giving up 17 unanswered points. In the December rematch, the Chargers led late until a field goal by backup kicker Matthew Wright bounced off the uprights and in.
Could the Chiefs be rusty? Maybe. Most of their star players won’t have played for 24 days when they play in the divisional round. It didn’t seem to bother the Ravens last season, when they rested Lamar Jackson and other key players for 20 days before winning 34-10 against the Texans.
The Chiefs made it to Super Bowl LV in 2020 after resting their stars during the final week of the regular season and having a bye in the wild-card round.
One concern for L.A. is Kansas City’s new additions late in the season. Coach Andy Reid got Hollywood Brown back from a preseason shoulder injury, and he was quickly targeted eight times on 14 routes in his first game.
Then, after trying out Kingsley Suamataia and Wanya Morris at left tackle, the Chiefs moved Joe Thuney from guard and signed D.J. Humphries, who made one start before a hamstring injury.
Getting rid of the young, struggling tackles protecting Patrick Mahomes’ blind side may actually be an improvement. It’s no coincidence that Kansas City had two of its highest-scoring games this season when Brown played and Morris was benched (he did play a few snaps at right tackle when Jawaan Taylor left the Texans game).
The Chiefs will use the time off to get their replacement players more in sync. Humphries should be healthier at left tackle, and Taylor will be back at right tackle. Running back Isiah Pacheco, who has shared playing time with Kareem Hunt, should get more carries. Brown will take more snaps away from JuJu Smith-Schuster and Justin Watson. Rookie first-round pick Xavier Worthy has had two of his best games after Brown joined the team.
This isn’t great news for the Chargers, who have ranked fifth in EPA per play against three or more wide receivers but 10th when teams use only two wideouts and play bigger, something the Chiefs like to do with Travis Kelce and Noah Gray.
The Chargers’ defensive coordinator Jesse Minter uses two-high shell coverages at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL, but no team has had more success beating those looks than Mahomes. He has become very good at taking safe completions against defenses afraid of his deep throws.
The Chargers will also struggle against Kansas City coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s blitzes. Justin Herbert was great against blitzes in the regular season, ranking fourth in the NFL in QBR (89.3) when teams sent extra rushers. However, he didn’t do as well against the Chiefs. His QBR was 89.3 when blitzed by teams other than the Chiefs, but it dropped to 46.1 when Spagnuolo sent pressure.
The Chargers didn’t have Ladd McConkey for their second game against the Chiefs, but Herbert actually struggled more in the first matchup when the rookie second-rounder had five catches for 67 yards and a touchdown.
Unfortunately for the Chargers, their top receiver likes to play in the slot, and Kansas City’s top cornerback, Trent McDuffie, is good at covering that position. Most of McConkey’s success in Week 4 came when he wasn’t lined up against McDuffie. It’s likely McDuffie will cover McConkey in this rematch.
The way to attack the Chiefs is to throw deep up the sidelines against their weaker cornerbacks. This means the game could come down to Quentin Johnston or Joshua Palmer, who is dealing with a foot injury and may not play. Although Johnston had his best game ever in Week 18 with 13 catches for 186 yards, this feels like a game where one key drop could cost the Chargers the win.
Prediction: Chiefs 27, Chargers 21
