NFC Championship Game
(7) Green Bay Packers at (4) Los Angeles Rams
The Rams probably didn’t expect to host the NFC Championship Game, but all three top seeds have been eliminated, which puts them in this situation. This seems unlikely, but the Rams were in a similar spot in the 2021 NFC Championship Game, when they were the 4-seed. They ended up hosting the 6-seed 49ers, who had beaten the 1-seed Packers and the 3-seed Cowboys in the first two rounds.
These teams played in Week 5, and the Packers won 24-19. However, the Rams didn’t have star wide receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp for that game. One of their starting guards was Logan Bruss, who finished the season with the Titans. They also didn’t have tight end Tyler Higbee, who returned to the team later in the season. For the Packers, they didn’t have wide receiver Christian Watson or cornerback Jaire Alexander available, and Romeo Doubs was suspended, meaning Malik Heath had to start at receiver.
Even without Kupp and Nacua, Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford tried his best against the league’s best downfield pass defense. He went 1-of-7 for 24 yards with an interception. Running back Kyren Williams did well, turning 22 carries into 102 yards and a touchdown, with a 59% success rate, but the Rams only had two scoring drives. A pick-six on a Jordan Love throw to avoid a safety made the score closer, but it’s fair to say the Rams will expect to do more on offense with Kupp and Nacua this time.
Will the Rams change up their personnel? Even without Kupp and Nacua in the first game, they stuck with 11 personnel (one tight end, one running back) for almost 95% of their offensive plays, where coach Sean McVay has typically felt comfortable. He had tried using more 12 personnel (two tight ends) earlier in the season, but it didn’t last. They returned to 11 personnel in games against the Vikings and Patriots, and in the last seven games, they used 11 personnel about 87% of the time.
McVay’s offense was more successful in 11 personnel than in 12, so changing things just for the sake of it might not help. However, the Packers had the best defense against 11 personnel and ranked 25th against 12 personnel. So, with Higbee back, using more 12 personnel against Green Bay might be a good idea.
On defense, Rams defensive coordinator Chris Shula might want to use more blitzes against quarterback Jordan Love in the rematch. Love was 11-of-15 for 217 yards with two touchdowns when not blitzed, but he was only 4-of-11 for 7 yards with a pick and seven pressures when the Rams blitzed him. Los Angeles already blitzed him at its second-highest rate of the season, so it’s unlikely they could blitz more, but because Love struggled against the blitz, it might be worth trying again to see if he can improve.
If the blitz doesn’t work, the Rams may have a tough time. They’ve managed to survive on defense by being lucky with their red zone performance. They rank 30th in EPA per snap outside the red zone, but that improves to fifth when teams are inside the 20. They’ve allowed touchdowns on 50% of opposing trips inside the 20, which is the fifth-best rate in the league.
It’s hard to rely on that in the postseason. Take the 2023 Buccaneers, for example, who were 22nd in EPA per play outside the red zone and second inside the 20 during the regular season.
The Lions went 3-for-4 in the red zone against them in the divisional round and knocked them out. A defense that bends but doesn’t break isn’t sustainable. If a defense isn’t good outside the red zone but performs well inside it, it gets figured out eventually.
While I’ll give the Rams some credit for being better with Kupp and Nacua, this is not a close matchup by advanced metrics. DVOA ranked the Packers as the third-best team in the league on a play-by-play basis, just ahead of the Bills and Eagles.
The Rams were ranked 17th, behind the Cardinals and Bengals. Even if the Rams are better with their two star wideouts, the Packers are the more talented team. And although the Rams are at home, it’s easy to imagine many Packers fans traveling to Los Angeles for this game. They won’t regret the trip.
Prediction: Packers 27, Rams 16
