NFC Divisional Round
(4) Los Angeles Rams at (3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
One downside of the Rams losing in Week 18 is having to travel to Tampa to face the Bucs instead of playing this game at home. It’s also a fun reunion between Sean McVay and Baker Mayfield, who revived his career with the Rams after struggling in Carolina.
Mayfield started only four games for the Rams and was playing behind backup players because of injuries, but he did enough in two wins to catch the attention of the Buccaneers, who signed him the next year. His offensive coordinator in L.A. was Liam Coen, who left for Kentucky after the season but returned to the NFL in 2024 to be the Buccaneers’ offensive coordinator.
Mayfield could have some success if he plays against the Rams again. The Bucs use a lot of screen passes — only the Dolphins and Bears completed more screens than they did this season. The Rams struggle against screen passes, ranking 31st in EPA per play allowed against them. The Bucs, by the way, are one of the top two teams in screen defense, along with the Chargers.
L.A. also tries to confuse opposing quarterbacks with different post-snap looks, running disguised coverages at the highest rate in the league. This is not a problem for Mayfield. He leads the league in completion percentage (75%) and ranks third in QBR against disguised coverages this season.
Tampa Bay might also feel good about running the ball against the Rams. The Rams are 29th in success rate against gap-scheme runs (such as power or trap runs) this season. The Bucs are the best in the league at running these plays, averaging 5.8 yards per carry, and they ranked fourth in rushing yards per game. They’re not great at zone runs, but they don’t need to use them much against L.A.
Meanwhile, L.A. has improved its run game by getting away from the zone-running style McVay used earlier in his career, but that plays into Tampa Bay’s strengths. The Bucs have the second-best run defense against gap runs, limiting teams to just 3.1 yards per carry, the lowest in the league.
They’ve also faced fewer gap runs than any other team, which could be because of a small sample size or because they have the huge Vita Vea at defensive tackle.
I mentioned earlier that Tampa Bay uses a lot of zone defense, which will be a problem for Matthew Stafford. He ranks sixth in QBR against zone coverage this season, and his QBR jumps to fourth when Puka Nacua is on the field. The Bucs don’t have many good answers for Nacua and Cooper Kupp, and not many teams do. The Rams also use play-action passes more than most teams, which is concerning for the Bucs, who are 24th in QBR allowed and EPA per dropback against play-action passes.
This game could turn into a shootout, and it might come down to which team is healthier. Tampa Bay is already missing Chris Godwin, and they’re waiting to see about tight end Cade Otton. They also have injuries in their secondary. L.A. has also dealt with injuries, but this might be the healthiest McVay’s team has been all season, as they expect safety John Johnson to return from injured reserve this week. If the playoffs come down to injuries, that favors the Rams.
Prediction: Rams 31, Buccaneers 24
(7) Green Bay Packers at (1) Detroit Lions
Detroit should have running back David Montgomery (knee) available for the divisional round, but this might actually be a slight negative. Jahmyr Gibbs has been great in an every-down role, and the Lions performed better without Montgomery on the field this season. They averaged 0.16 EPA per snap with Montgomery on the field and 0.14 EPA per snap with him off the field. While having Montgomery back could be useful, the Lions averaged 35 points per game without him in the final three weeks of the season.
Montgomery led the Lions in yards from scrimmage during their December win over the Packers, which gave the Lions a sweep of their rivals. It was also a big game for Christian Watson, who gained 114 yards against cornerback Carlton Davis, although he lost an important fumble in the second quarter. Watson won’t play in this rematch due to an ACL injury, and Davis is also out after suffering a jaw injury last month.
While the Lions easily beat the Packers in their first game, Green Bay might feel good about how much closer the second game was. That game came down to third and fourth downs, with the Packers converting just 1 of 5 third downs and not attempting a fourth-down conversion. The Lions, on the other hand, went 4-for-5 on fourth downs, with two touchdown passes and a run that set up the game-winning field goal without allowing the Packers a chance to respond.
But even that version of the Lions from December is different from what we’ll see in two weeks. Defensive tackle Alim McNeill got hurt in the Packers game, returned the next week, and then tore his ACL. Davis played every snap, and cornerback Terrion Arnold was carted off in Week 18 with a foot injury, although reports about his chances of playing in the postseason are positive.
Defensive end Pat O’Connor, also filling in due to injuries, left the Vikings game hurt, and his calf injury could keep him out. By the time the Vikings game ended, the Lions were missing their top four pass rushers, a starting linebacker, and their top two cornerbacks. While they won the game, there were plenty of plays that could’ve been made against them. This defense allowed 31 points to the Packers, 48 points to the Bills, and 34 points to the 49ers over the last five weeks.
Can Jordan Love take advantage? He should be well-positioned to do so. The Lions have used a lot of man coverage and blitzed the most in the league since losing Aidan Hutchinson, and they did even more of this in their win over the Vikings.
Love has been good against man coverage, ranking seventh in Total QBR this season against man-to-man defense. He hasn’t been as good against the blitz, but the Lions blitzed him over 62% of the time in their last meeting, and he went 9-of-14 for 160 yards, a touchdown, and just one sack.
I also have concerns about the Lions’ ability to stop the Packers’ run game. Detroit ranked 22nd in success rate against gap runs, and that was with more depth on the defensive line. Green Bay averages the fifth-most yards per carry on gap runs, gaining even more than the Lions. The Lions’ defensive starters have had to do more as the season has gone on, which might tire them out later in the game.
I have serious doubts about Detroit’s defense. The Packers will need to find a way to pressure Jared Goff. In their two games this season, Goff was 9-of-16 for 61 yards when Green Bay pressured him, but he was nearly perfect — 41-of-47 for 367 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception — when they didn’t get pressure. Every quarterback struggles when pressured, but Goff is particularly vulnerable in those situations.
Green Bay ranked 22nd in pressure rate this season, so it seems unlikely they’ll be able to pressure Goff the way they did in their Thanksgiving Day victory.
The Packers also struggle to defend the middle of the field, which is where Goff excels. Green Bay ranked 24th in QBR allowed on throws to the middle, and Goff went 38-of-45 for 363 yards with a 10.1 completion percentage above expectation when targeting the middle against the Packers. Green Bay did get one interception, but they generally struggled against Goff’s strengths.
The Packers have been better with rookie Edgerrin Cooper at inside linebacker. After not playing much early in the season, he became an every-down player in the past two weeks after Quay Walker got injured. Cooper has been playing at a Pro Bowl level, with 13 tackles for loss, even though he’s only been on the field for about 55% of defensive snaps. Walker returned to practice this week, but I expect the Packers to use Cooper heavily in the postseason because he’s been too good to leave off the field.
Despite all these concerns, the Packers have one of the best pass defenses in the league. They ranked third in EPA per play allowed against the pass, first in QBR allowed, and they’ve forced the fourth-most turnovers. They’re also a very healthy defense, especially now that Walker and Evan Williams are back at practice. Even with two starters on injured reserve, the Packers are in good shape defensively.
It’s hard to say if the Packers can slow down the Lions, but I have even less confidence in Detroit’s ability to stop Green Bay, given their injuries.
Prediction: Packers 38, Lions 34
