NFC wild-card weekend
(7) Green Bay Packers at (2) Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET on Fox
Spread: PHI -4.5 (44.5)
The main question for this game is which quarterbacks will play? As I write this, it’s not clear whether Jalen Hurts (concussion) or Jordan Love (elbow) will be ready to play. Even if one or both do play, there are still concerns about their performance. Will Hurts run the ball or use tush pushes like usual? Will Love’s sore elbow affect his accuracy? Any problems with either quarterback could be the key factor in deciding the outcome.
Let’s assume that both Hurts and Love play at close to their usual level. Eagles fans would likely see that as a positive. These two teams faced off in Brazil to open the season, with Philadelphia winning 34-29. Saquon Barkley showed signs of his great season to come by scoring three touchdowns, while free agent Zack Baun sealed the win with a sack of Malik Willis on a Hail Mary attempt.
The Eagles turned the ball over three times in that game, including twice in the first quarter, but that was the last time they had such issues. After committing eight turnovers in the first four weeks, they had just seven in their final 13 games. Their turnover margin went from minus-6 during the 2-2 start to plus-17 over the next 13 games, which played a big part in them winning 13 of their last 14 games.
Another reason for Philadelphia fans to be hopeful is that the defense improved a lot after a shaky start to the season. The big change came during the Eagles’ bye week when they switched out Avonte Maddox for rookie Cooper DeJean at slot cornerback. DeJean played like a Pro Bowler from that point, and rookie corner Quinyon Mitchell was also very strong.
With the defense staying mostly healthy, except for the loss of veteran edge rusher Brandon Graham to a triceps injury, Philadelphia enters the postseason as one of the best defenses in the league.
But Green Bay is right up there too. The Packers’ defense has been outstanding in Jeff Hafley’s first season as coordinator. They lead the league in Total QBR allowed this season. The Eagles rank third in EPA per play allowed, but Green Bay is just behind them, not far off. Both teams have great defenses.
The Packers excel in one key area, and it’s something that could cause problems for the Eagles. In Week 1, Hurts connected with A.J. Brown for a 67-yard touchdown, but that was the last time all season Green Bay allowed a gain of 40 yards or more. Since then, they haven’t given up a single 40-yard play, while every other team has allowed at least six 40-yard gains. Philadelphia, a team known for explosive plays, has allowed seven such plays this season. No defense since 2000 has gone a full season without allowing a 40-yard gain.
The Eagles rely on big plays to power their offense, where they ranked second with 19 gains of 40 or more yards, just behind the Ravens. But even with all their talent, the Eagles ranked just 16th in success rate on offense, showing that they can be inconsistent at times. Hurts sometimes takes too many sacks, and Barkley had 59 runs that went for no gain or a loss. These are issues that teams can work around if they are hitting big plays regularly. If Green Bay can shut down those big plays, Philadelphia may struggle to adjust.
And while the Eagles have grown into one of the best teams since their bye, the Packers have also improved. Since Week 10, there have been only two quarterbacks in the league with a Total QBR of 80 or more: Josh Allen, a top MVP candidate, and Love, who posted an 82.8 QBR, the highest among any quarterback in the playoffs except for Allen. Love finished the season fifth in QBR, ahead of Jared Goff and five spots ahead of Hurts.
The strategy to slow down Love this season has been to blitz him. In the game against the Eagles in Brazil, Love went 6-of-12 for 38 yards against the Philly blitz, and his QBR dropped from 6th to 19th when facing extra pressure. Defenses have noticed this, and Love has been the most-blitzed quarterback in the league.
However, the Eagles don’t blitz much. They send extra rushers only 20% of the time, the fifth-lowest rate in the league. Their front four is very good, which allows them to control the line of scrimmage with their pass rush, but defensive coordinator Vic Fangio prefers to drop into coverage and trust his defensive line to win. While that strategy works well, it may not be the best way to beat Green Bay.
The first game between these two teams was a high-scoring affair, but I expect the rematch to be more focused on defense, especially with both quarterbacks potentially playing hurt. This game might come down to a field goal, and with kickers Jake Elliott and Brandon McManus both having strong seasons, that could give the underdog Packers a slight edge.
Prediction: Packers 19, Eagles 17
(6) Washington Commanders at (3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, 8 p.m. ET on NBC
Spread: TB -3 (50.5)
This is another rematch from Week 1. In that game, the Buccaneers easily defeated the Commanders, going up 37-14 before a late score from Jayden Daniels made the final score 37-24. The Commanders were lucky that the final margin wasn’t even bigger, as they recovered all three fumbles in that game but still got blown out.
Daniels ran the ball 16 times for 88 yards and two touchdowns in that game, which was the kind of rushing performance Washington would try to avoid as the season went on, especially with their rookie quarterback. He has improved since then. The Bucs won’t have Chris Godwin, who led all receivers in Week 1 with 83 yards and a touchdown, but they’ll have a bigger role for Bucky Irving, who was a backup to Rachaad White back in September.
What’s uncertain for the Buccaneers is who will play in the secondary. They didn’t have safeties Antoine Winfield Jr. and Jordan Whitehead, or starting corner Jamel Dean, for the crucial Week 18 game against the Saints. Second-year safety Christian Izien is on injured reserve, and late-season addition Mike Edwards got injured in the fourth quarter and didn’t return. By the end of that game, the Bucs were down to Kaevon Merriweather and Ryan Neal at safety, with Neal having played just eight defensive snaps all season before that game.
The injuries in the secondary, which have been an issue for most of the season, have led Tampa Bay to be more cautious than usual. They rank 13th in blitz rate and last in man-to-man coverage rate. Daniels has been very good attacking zone coverage this season, ranking fourth in EPA per play against zone. The Bucs don’t have enough healthy defensive backs to switch to more man-to-man coverage.
Tampa Bay can still throw the ball well. But the cornerback Washington traded for at the deadline might not be available to cover longtime rival Mike Evans. Marshon Lattimore has only played two games for the Commanders because of a hamstring injury that kept him out for a while, and it flared up again, causing him to miss the last two games. The Commanders are hopeful he can play in the postseason, but they weren’t expecting their new corner to miss so much of the second half of the season after the trade.
Evans could be a big problem for Washington if Lattimore isn’t healthy. Benjamin St-Juste has struggled with consistency, and though rookie Mike Sainristil has impressed after moving out of the slot, it’s a tough challenge for a rookie to go up against a future Hall of Famer like Evans.
On the other hand, the Commanders’ defense is solid and good at dealing with extended plays, which is where Baker Mayfield tends to excel. Washington ranks second in QBR allowed on throws where the quarterback holds the ball for four or more seconds. They are also fourth on throws made outside the pocket, an area where Mayfield often shines, as he ranks third in QBR when he gets outside, especially when plays break down. Mayfield may have to create plays from within the pocket in this game. But if Lattimore can’t play, Tampa Bay should be able to find Evans with ease.
This game will likely be close, and the deciding factor could be who plays in the secondary for either team. With the Buccaneers playing at home, I slightly lean toward them.
Prediction: Buccaneers 27, Commanders 24
Minnesota Vikings (5) at Los Angeles Rams (4)
Monday, 8 p.m. ET on ESPN/ABC/ESPN+
Spread: MIN -1 (47.5)
The Vikings could be the best wild-card team in NFL history. They are the first team to win 14 games and still end up as a wild card. While this is partly because of the 17-game schedule, they have a slightly better winning percentage than other teams with a 13-3 record as a wild card. One example is the 1999 Titans, who used the famous Music City Miracle to beat the Bills before making it to Super Bowl XXXIV and nearly defeating the Rams. (Those Titans had a home wild-card game, so the play is not called the Lake Erie Lateral.)
The Rams aren’t worried. Coach Sean McVay could have secured the 3-seed in Week 18 with a win over the Seahawks, which would have meant avoiding the Lions or Vikings in the wild-card round. However, he rested most of his first-team offense and played defensive stars like Jared Verse and Braden Fiske only in clear passing situations. The Rams came close to winning anyway, but the loss means they now have to play the Vikings instead of the Commanders.
McVay might not be too concerned because the Rams went 10-7 and won the NFC West despite facing the second-toughest schedule in the league, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index. They played the Lions tough in Week 1, with Detroit needing a last-second field goal to send the game into overtime before beating the Rams. McVay’s team then beat the Vikings in October, with Matthew Stafford throwing for 279 yards and four touchdowns.
In that game, it was also Puka Nacua’s first game back after missing six weeks with a sprained PCL, and his return has had a big impact on the Rams’ offense. He averaged 3.7 yards per route run this season, the best in the league, with only A.J. Brown and Nico Collins surpassing 3.0.
Although his absence coincided with offensive line injuries that have since been fixed, the Rams averaged 0.11 EPA per play with Nacua on the field and 0.00 EPA without him. That difference is the same as being as good as the Bucs or Eagles with Nacua, versus as bad as the Jets without him.
While Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores’ pressures can cause trouble for every team, the Rams might be able to handle those pressures well. They’re one of the best teams at blocking on the edge for screens, which can counter the Vikings’ blitzes. Stafford was the best at throwing against Cover 0 (man coverage) this season, which is important because the Vikings often use that type of defense.
The Vikings are also good at hiding their coverages, showing blitzes before the snap and then dropping into zones. Stafford is good at reading and diagnosing those coverages. He ranks second in completion percentage and sixth in EPA per play when facing disguised coverages.
One person who hasn’t handled the blitz well recently is Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold. He didn’t throw an interception in the Week 18 loss to the Lions, but it was possibly his worst performance of the season. He missed key third-down throws to T.J. Hockenson and failed to complete what looked like four different touchdowns inside the 10-yard line.
Some were overthrows, and Darnold didn’t seem willing to throw touchdowns to Jordan Addison, even when he was open. Darnold also struggled with an off-target rate of 34.2%, his second-worst rate of his career. He was hit on nearly 30% of his dropbacks and was limping by the end of the game.
Although elevating Daniel Jones to the active roster may not make a difference for the Vikings this postseason, Darnold’s performance is concerning. Any quarterback can miss a throw, but Darnold missed several big opportunities last week, and he looked different from the guy who had been playing well in December. If the Rams see this too, they could take advantage of it.
Prediction: Rams 27, Vikings 17
