NFL playoff forecast: Predicted scores and AFC Championship Game

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Kansas City Chiefs players celebrates after a touchdown

AFC Championship Game

(3) Baltimore Ravens at (1) Kansas City Chiefs
What a great piece of symmetry! The AFC Championship Game is a rematch of the first game of the season, when the Ravens probably played better than the Chiefs but lost after failing to score in the red zone. In that game, they went 1-for-4 in the red zone, and the last missed chance came down to Isaiah Likely’s shoe size on the final play.

This is also a repeat of last season’s AFC Championship Game, where the Ravens only got into the red zone once and didn’t score after Zay Flowers fumbled at the 1-yard line.

In two games, the Ravens have scored just one touchdown on five trips to the red zone. What makes this so strange is that the Ravens have had the best red zone offense in the league over the last two seasons, converting nearly 70% of their opportunities against all other teams.

There’s only a 3% chance that a team with such a high red zone success rate would go 1-for-5, showing how good Kansas City is and how random small samples can be. If Likely’s foot were one size smaller and Flowers had jumped just a little higher into the end zone, the Ravens would’ve been 3-for-5, and maybe they would’ve won both of those games.

It’s hard to believe the Ravens will keep failing so much in the red zone against Kansas City, especially with a full season of Derrick Henry added to the team. And although Likely didn’t have a breakout season after his career-high 111 receiving yards in Week 1, the Chiefs gave up the most yards (1,191) and the highest yards per attempt (8.8) to tight ends in 2024.

Baltimore Ravens players in the 1st half

The Ravens used a lot of 12-personnel (two tight ends) and had a 55% success rate, compared to 43% when using 11-personnel (one tight end). It’s fair to say Kansas City could have trouble stopping Likely and Mark Andrews together.

In the season opener, it felt like Lamar Jackson had the weight of the AFC Championship loss from last year on his shoulders. The reigning MVP ran the ball on 16 designed runs and scrambles, his biggest rushing workload of the season by far. That led to 122 rushing yards and seven first downs, and the Ravens could take a similar approach in the playoffs. Only two teams allowed more yards on scrambles than the blitz-happy Chiefs this season.

The biggest challenge for the Ravens is that the Chiefs are very good at preventing passes in Jackson’s usual range. He’s been great throughout his career at hitting intermediate throws (between 11 to 20 yards), especially on digs and crossers. Kansas City knows how to stop those passes, as they allowed only 93 attempts in that range, the third fewest of any defense.

Another advantage for Kansas City is defensive tackle Chris Jones, who will likely cause problems for the Ravens’ guards, Patrick Mekari and Daniel Faalele.

These are the weakest spots on Baltimore’s offensive line. Jackson is great at moving around the pocket and escaping pressure, but Jones, with 80.5 career sacks, is not an average pass rusher. He has taken over playoff games before, and he’s someone the Ravens have to watch out for.

On the other side, I’m not sure if the Ravens can stop Patrick Mahomes. They didn’t blitz often this season, instead using sim pressures (where they drop seven players into coverage and try to create an overload on one side). Baltimore used sim pressures on a league-high 3.1% of snaps and blitzed the sixth-lowest amount. Mahomes has been the NFL’s best quarterback against the blitz, which discourages teams from sending extra rushers his way.

But I’m not sure if sim pressures will work either. Mahomes is too good at recognizing these types of defenses, and he’s hard to sack when there’s a free rusher. Plus, these pressures can open up opportunities for him to escape and run.

Patrick Mahomes
Patrick Mahomes (NFL)

The place where teams can attack the Ravens is the middle of the field, where they allowed an 87.1 QBR, ranked 30th in the league this season. That’s where Mahomes goes to move the ball. Jared Goff was the only quarterback who threw for more first downs in that area than Mahomes did in the regular season.

It’s also where Travis Kelce finds soft spots in defenses, where DeAndre Hopkins can get open on slants, and where Mahomes finds his best solutions as a scrambler. While the Ravens improved after changes at linebacker and safety, the Chiefs can still attack them in the middle.

Baltimore does match up well on offense against things Kansas City doesn’t do well, and the Ravens have been much better on defense in the past month, making them a scary complete team. They also likely won’t struggle as much in the red zone going forward. But the Chiefs have home-field advantage, and they have Mahomes and Jones. The Ravens may not have the right defenders to keep the Chiefs from scoring.

Prediction: Chiefs 24, Ravens 20

By Ritik

Ritik Katiyar is pursuing a post-graduate degree in Pharmaceutics. Currently, he lives in Srinagar, Uttarakhand, India. You can find him writing about all sorts of listicle topics. A pharmaceutical postgrad by day, and a content writer by night. You can write to him at [email protected]

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