With the NFL playoffs finally here, it’s time for my yearly preview. If you don’t have time to watch the postseason this month and the Super Bowl in February, this article will make it simple: I will explain who will win each of the 13 playoff games and why. You won’t need to tune in.
That’s a small exaggeration. Just one wrong prediction can mess up the whole bracket, and I will consider myself lucky if I go 3-for-3 on the first Saturday of wild-card weekend.
No amount of preparation or research matters if something unexpected happens, like a quarterback injuring his UCL in the first half, like Brock Purdy did in the NFC Championship Game two years ago, or if the weather causes trouble for a team, like it did for the Dolphins in Kansas City last year. One bad call or some bad luck with fumbles can affect a game more than a team’s actual performance.
Instead, think of this as a guide to the factors that could decide games, based on how the teams played during the regular season. What were their strengths and weaknesses? How do they match up? If they already played each other earlier in 2024, what parts of that game might show up again? Is there something about their team or strategy that might be different now?
For example, last season, the Texans played the Browns just three weeks after Cleveland won 36-22. Despite struggling with a lot of interceptions by Joe Flacco, the Browns were doing well, but their defense got weaker after Myles Garrett got hurt, and their high turnover rate covered it up. When they played again, the Texans won 45-14 in January.
Here’s the problem: I tend to stick to my predictions too much. Before last season, I said the Chiefs would beat the Cowboys in the Super Bowl, and when both teams made the playoffs, I stuck with that prediction. You probably know how that turned out, both good and bad.
Both of the teams from my preseason Super Bowl prediction are in the 2024 playoffs, and I might just stick with them again in this preview. It’s just going to take a few upsets along the way. Let’s start with the AFC before moving to what seems like a wide-open NFC:
AFC Wild-Card Weekend
(7) Denver Broncos at (2) Buffalo Bills
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on CBS
Spread: BUF -8.5 (46.5)
Broncos fans are excited about rookie quarterback Bo Nix after a nearly perfect game against the Chiefs. Kansas City benched its top seven defenders, and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo only blitzed Nix six times. But when a quarterback goes 26-of-29 for 321 yards with four touchdowns and runs seven times for 47 yards, it’s hard to find many flaws in his performance. Nix’s game was the seventh-best of the season by Total QBR (97.3).
Nix won’t have that kind of game against the Bills, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he succeeds with some early throws. The Broncos use screens and short passes to make things easier for Nix, and the Bills have struggled to stop those types of plays.
Buffalo has allowed 49.8% of passes within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage to be successful, the seventh-worst rate in the league. The Bills are good at taking away big plays and forcing offenses to slowly move down the field, which Broncos coach Sean Payton is happy to do with his quarterback.
However, I’m not sure the Broncos’ strong defense will be enough against Josh Allen and the Bills. Denver plays man-to-man defense the second-most in the league (56.3%), and that plays right into Allen’s strength.
Twenty-two of his 28 touchdown passes have come against man coverage this season, and when defensive backs are matched up with receivers, they can’t help out if Allen takes off running. While Pat Surtain II is great at covering any receiver, the Bills don’t have one main wide receiver for Surtain to focus on. They set an NFL record this season with 13 players catching touchdowns.
The Broncos rely on their pass rush, ranking 17th in QBR allowed when their pressure doesn’t reach the quarterback. But Allen is great at dealing with pressure, taking sacks at the lowest rate in the league. Most quarterbacks see their QBR drop nearly 34 points when pressured, but Allen’s QBR is more than 12 points higher when he faces pressure. He finished with the highest QBR under pressure in a season since ESPN started tracking the stat in 2009 (85.3).
The Lions’ defense is very similar to the Broncos’ defense in style, and Allen destroyed Detroit in mid-December by making them play zone coverage and extending plays to find open receivers. When the Lions tried to blitz, Allen hurt them with his legs. I expect more of the same here, with Allen targeting Riley Moss, P.J. Locke, and Justin Strnad. It will be tough for Nix to keep up with Allen, who could be the MVP.
Prediction: Bills 34, Broncos 21
(6) Pittsburgh Steelers at (3) Baltimore Ravens
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET on Prime Video
Spread: BAL -9.5 (43.5)
The Pittsburgh offense has been struggling. Over the last month, the Steelers rank 31st in expected points added (EPA) per play and 29th in QBR. The running game has been okay, ranking eighth in success rate on the ground, but the big plays they had earlier in the season are no longer happening. They had chances to make deep passes against the Bengals in Week 18, but George Pickens had drops that ruined those opportunities.
During this same time, the Ravens have become the best defense in the league. They have the number-one EPA per play allowed in the last month of the season, after switching out safety Marcus Williams and linebacker Trenton Simpson for Ar’Darius Washington and Malik Harrison. Despite blitzing less than most teams, the Ravens’ pass rush ranks tied for fourth in sack rate (7.7%). This is not a good matchup for Pittsburgh.
The change from Williams to Washington has strengthened Baltimore’s pass defense, especially against deep passes, where Russell Wilson is trying to find success in his career. With Williams on the field, the Ravens allowed a 96.0 QBR on deep passes, ranking 28th. With Washington, that has improved by 30 points, now ranking fifth in the league.
The Steelers will likely not win if they need to score 28 points. They’ll need their defense and special teams to help out, but their defense has not created many big plays in recent weeks.
During their 10-3 start, the Steelers averaged 2.2 takeaways per game, with seven games forcing three turnovers. During their four-game losing streak, they’ve only forced five takeaways, with two of those coming on special teams. For Pittsburgh to win, they need to force at least two turnovers, which is possible because of playmakers like T.J. Watt.
The Ravens won’t have their top receiver, Zay Flowers, on Saturday due to a knee injury. Lamar Jackson has posted a 75.2 QBR on almost 100 dropbacks without Flowers this season, and I wonder if his absence will help the offense against Pittsburgh. Baltimore has shifted away from using three wide receivers (11 personnel) and used more groupings with two tight ends or two running backs this season. They were in three-wide sets 28% of the time in 2024, down from 47% last year.
With Flowers out, there is even less reason to use three wideouts, and the Steelers have struggled more against heavier sets. Pittsburgh is good at rushing the passer, but when teams use three or more wideouts, the Steelers rank second in the NFL in EPA per snap on defense. With two or fewer wide receivers, they drop to 19th.
The Steelers have been tough for Jackson over the years, with the two-time MVP posting a 28.9 QBR against them, compared to a 70.6 QBR against other teams. Jackson’s playoff struggles are well-known, but this time he has Derrick Henry to help take pressure off. Henry ran for 162 yards when the Ravens beat the Steelers in Week 16 to take control of the AFC North. I expect Henry to be the main focus again in a tough Baltimore win.
Prediction: Ravens 20, Steelers 9
(5) Los Angeles Chargers at (4) Houston Texans
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET on CBS
Spread: LAC -3 (42.5)
Even though the Texans are division champions and will host the Chargers, Jim Harbaugh’s team is a three-point favorite. Houston went 1-5 against playoff teams and was outscored by an average of 11 points in those games. Their only win against a playoff team was against Buffalo. Los Angeles, on the other hand, faced what ESPN’s Football Power Index considers the easiest regular-season schedule of any team.
This isn’t a good matchup for either team on offense. Starting with the Texans, they have struggled all season and are likely the most disappointing offense in the league. Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik has had trouble getting the offense going on early downs, which has left C.J. Stroud in long third-down situations. The Texans have faced third-and-9 or longer 91 times this season, the second-most in the league. The NFL converts just over 20% of those situations.
Relying on third-down conversions is not a good plan against any team, especially not against Los Angeles, which leads the league in defensive success rate on third downs this season. The Texans have also struggled in the red zone, ranking 26th in touchdown rate. The Chargers have prevented touchdowns on 55% of their red zone possessions, the best rate in the NFL.
The Chargers’ defense, under new coordinator Jesse Minter, relies heavily on zone coverages, using them at the fourth-highest rate in the league. Stroud has struggled against zone defenses this season, ranking 27th in QBR against them, the worst of any starting quarterback in the playoffs.
Stroud does better against man coverage, but Los Angeles is less likely to use man coverage after losing Elijah Molden to injured reserve. Asante Samuel Jr. (shoulder) has also missed most of the season, but the Chargers have managed with contributions from Tarheeb Still and Cam Hart. They also recently got back safety Alohi Gilman from injured reserve. Stroud will need to hit big plays against zone coverage if he wants to make this game competitive.
On the Chargers’ side, Justin Herbert has been good at protecting the football this season, but his lower interception rate has led to more sacks. He has been sacked 7.7% of the time on dropbacks and 24.1% of the time when pressured, both below the league average.
The Texans have strong edge rushers in Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr., but the Chargers’ offensive tackles, Rashawn Slater and rookie Joe Alt, have been excellent. The middle of the line could be the key, as Denico Autry has not looked like his usual self after serving a PED suspension and missing Week 18 with a knee injury.
Herbert has had the most success throwing to slot receivers, with a QBR of 89.4, ranking fourth. Houston has had the best defense against slot receivers this season, but their top two defenders, Jalen Pitre and Jimmie Ward, are both injured and out for the postseason. The logical matchup would be to put Derek Stingley Jr. on Los Angeles’ top wideout Ladd McConkey, but Stingley has only played 12 snaps in the slot this season. He has two interceptions in those snaps, both against the Dolphins, but he is more comfortable outside.
McConkey’s play in the slot could make the difference in this game. The Texans rely heavily on their stars, like Nico Collins, but they don’t match up as well with the Chargers outside of him. If the Chargers’ tackles can hold their ground against Hunter and Anderson, it might be enough for Los Angeles to win.
Prediction: Chargers 23, Texans 17
Super Bowl LIX
(7) Green Bay Packers vs. (1) Kansas City Chiefs
This game has a lot of interesting storylines. Kansas City is aiming for its third straight title. It’s also a rematch from the very first Super Bowl. Andy Reid, who might be in his last game as a head coach, is facing the team where he started his coaching career in the 1990s as a tight ends coach.
Jordan Love will get a chance to get revenge on the team that beat him in his first career start, where he went 19-of-34 for 190 yards in a 13-7 loss in 2021. The Chiefs are the higher seed and have the better record, but according to metrics like DVOA and ESPN’s FPI, the Packers were the better team during the season.
Even so, I believe the Chiefs will win easily. This is a tough matchup for the Packers because their weaknesses match the Chiefs’ strengths, and the Chiefs’ weaknesses match the Packers’ strengths.
I’ve mentioned Love’s struggles with the blitz this season. Well, guess who likes to blitz? Chiefs coordinator Steve Spagnuolo loves bringing heavy blitzes, and he will have two weeks to prepare new pressures for Love and head coach Matt LaFleur. Love is a talented player, and the Chiefs don’t have the same level of defense as they did last year with L’Jarius Sneed, but the best way to attack Kansas City is by throwing deep down the sidelines. The player best suited for that role, Christian Watson, tore his ACL in Week 18.
Another way to attack the Chiefs is through the run game. The Packers do run the ball a lot, but Josh Jacobs hasn’t been as effective as some might think. He’s great at breaking tackles, and some of his best runs stand out in memory, but he has fumbled four times and often gets stopped for losses or minimal gains, which puts the Packers in difficult situations.
His success rate is below average, and he ranked 25th out of 31 running backs by EPA per rush attempt. The Packers actually performed better when Jacobs was off the field (0.10) compared to when he was on it (0.06). If they can’t get Jacobs going on early downs, they’ll end up in third-and-long situations, which is where Spagnuolo can really pressure Love with blitzes.
On the other hand, while the Packers are excellent at preventing big plays, teams that are patient and can steadily move the ball down the field tend to succeed against them. Even though Green Bay ranks fourth in EPA per play allowed, they are 21st in success rate on defense. The type of team the Packers don’t want to face is one that can stay on schedule, take what’s available, and avoid trying to make big, explosive plays.
That’s the kind of offense the Chiefs run, which ranks sixth in success rate and 11th in EPA per play. The Packers can limit big plays and are good at handling scramble situations, which should slow down Patrick Mahomes’ ability to improvise, but Mahomes is still very capable of picking apart a defense by moving the chains on third downs and throwing short passes for six yards at a time. What might seem like an unsustainable way of moving the ball for other teams is a regular trend for the Chiefs.
There are ways the Packers could win, of course. They have the best defense in the league when they can pressure the quarterback, and even with D.J. Humphries at left tackle, the Chiefs might not feel fully comfortable with Mahomes’ blindside. Jacobs is a talented player and could break off some big runs.
The Packers have enough skilled receivers to create mismatches against Christian Roland-Wallace or Joshua Williams in the Chiefs’ secondary, and Love is capable of identifying and attacking those mismatches. Also, while Andy Reid is a great game planner, LaFleur might be just as good. What LaFleur did to adjust the offense after Love’s early-season knee injury was some of the best coaching all season.
All of this is true, but I’ve picked the Chiefs to win the past two seasons. I’m not stopping now.
Prediction: Chiefs 27, Packers 13
