The wild-card playoff round for the 2024 NFL season features some exciting games, and we have everything you need to prepare.
Our NFL Nation reporters share the key points for all six matchups, and analytics writer Seth Walder gives a bold prediction for each game. NFL analyst Matt Bowen highlights a key player to watch, while staff writer Kevin Seifert provides insight into officiating.
The ESPN Research team shares an important stat and betting info for each game, and our Football Power Index (FPI) offers game projections. Finally, analysts Kalyn Kahler, Eric Moody, and Walder share their predictions for the final scores of each game.
Everything you need to know is in one place to get ready for a weekend filled with NFL playoff action. Let’s take a look at the wild-card games:
Byes: DET, KC
(7) Broncos at (2) Bills
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET | CBS/Paramount+ | ESPN BET: BUF -8 (47.5 O/U)
Broncos storyline to watch: After ending an eight-year playoff drought, the Broncos now face one of the AFC’s top quarterbacks. They didn’t beat Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes (who didn’t start last week’s game), Joe Burrow, or Justin Herbert this season. Now, they face Josh Allen, who has as many rushing touchdowns (12) as the Broncos’ entire team. The Broncos need to limit Allen’s “second act” plays—his completions and runs after the initial reads are gone. — Jeff Legwold
Bills storyline to watch: The Bills have been successful in the wild-card round, with a 4-1 record when Allen starts. However, the big question is whether their defense can get off the field. The Bills’ defense ranks fourth worst in third-down conversion percentage allowed (43.8%), and they’ve struggled with sacks (39, tied for 18th). On the other hand, rookie quarterback Bo Nix has been difficult to sack (24 sacks, tied for third fewest). “Nix seems extremely poised for a young quarterback, and I’ve been very impressed with his mobility and ability to extend plays,” said Bills coach Sean McDermott. — Alaina Getzenberg
Stat to know: The Bills turned the ball over only eight times in the regular season, tied with the 2019 Saints for the fewest turnovers since turnovers were first tracked in 1933. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Allen will convert at least five first downs or score a touchdown with his legs. While cornerback Pat Surtain II may shut down a receiver, Allen has many ways to hurt a defense. I expect him to scramble a lot on Sunday, even though the Broncos allow the third-least rushing yards per game (96.4). — Walder
Matchup X factor: Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton. The Broncos can create open lanes for Sutton to run deep routes against a Bills defense that played zone coverage on over 68% of opponent dropbacks. Sutton had 32 receptions of 15 or more yards this season, and the Broncos will need those types of plays to upset the Bills. — Bowen
Injuries: Broncos | Bills
Betting nugget: Rookie quarterbacks are 0-5 outright and 1-4 against the spread (ATS) in road playoff games over the past 10 seasons. — ESPN Research
Officiating nugget: Referee Bill Vinovich’s crew threw the fewest flags per game in the NFL this season, with 12.9 flags per game. This benefits both teams, as the Bills (18th) and Broncos (21st) ranked in the upper half of the NFL in total flags this season. — Seifert
Kahler’s pick: Bills 28, Broncos 21
Moody’s pick: Broncos 27, Bills 24
Walder’s pick: Bills 28, Broncos 17
FPI prediction: BUF, 68.1% (by an average of 7.1 points)
(7) Packers at (2) Eagles
Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: PHI -4.5 (45.5 O/U)
Packers storyline to watch: The Packers have their highest defensive ranking (fifth) since their Super Bowl-winning season in 2010, but they have struggled with Eagles running back Saquon Barkley. Barkley has rushed for at least 100 scrimmage yards and a touchdown in each of the last three games against the Packers, including the 2024 season opener. — Rob Demovsky
Eagles storyline to watch: Quarterback Jalen Hurts is progressing through concussion protocol and is expected to play unless there is a setback. The challenge will be whether the passing offense can get into rhythm early in his first game since Dec. 22. Slow starts were common for the Eagles this season, and they failed to score in the first quarter 10 times.
Their progress will be tested against a team that has allowed just 19.9 points per game, the sixth-best mark in the NFL. — Tim McManus
Stat to know: The Packers scored 30 or more points in five of their final seven games, including five straight in Weeks 12 through 16. That’s the second-longest streak in franchise history, after a seven-game streak in 1963. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Eagles defensive tackle Jalen Carter will bat a pass, which will then be intercepted. Carter recorded six batted passes this season, the second most in the NFL, and he’ll face an average pass-blocking guard in Sean Rhyan. Expect him to get a hand on one of Jordan Love’s throws. — Walder
Matchup X factor: Packers linebacker Edgerrin Cooper. Cooper can track the ball carrier on the edges and patrol intermediate coverage windows. If the Packers want to win in Philly, he’ll need to limit Barkley and clog the middle of the field in the pass game. — Bowen
Injuries: Packers | Eagles
Betting nugget: The Eagles are 9-3 against the spread in their past 12 games and have covered in three straight home games. — ESPN Research
Officiating nugget: Referee Brad Allen’s crew threw the third-fewest flags per game (13.4) but called 10 penalties for roughing the passer, the second most in the league. This benefits the protection of Hurts and Love, who were the beneficiaries of three roughing the passer penalties during the regular season. — Seifert
Kahler’s pick: Eagles 34, Packers 28
Moody’s pick: Eagles 31, Packers 21
Walder’s pick: Eagles 24, Packers 21
FPI prediction: PHI, 51.2% (by an average of 0.4 points)
(6) Commanders at (3) Buccaneers
Sunday, 8 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | ESPN BET: TB -3 (50.5 O/U)
Commanders storyline to watch: Washington’s defense has improved since facing Tampa Bay in the season opener. After three games, the Commanders ranked 29th in points allowed per game (29.3). From Week 4 through 18, they ranked 12th in scoring (21.6 points per game) and fourth in total yards (316.1).
The Bucs will be a challenge because of their improved run game with rookie Bucky Irving. Tampa Bay ranks second in rushing yards per game over the last seven weeks (183.3), while Washington’s defense ranks 30th against the run, allowing 137.5 rushing yards per game. — John Keim
Buccaneers storyline to watch: The Bucs have seen quarterback Jayden Daniels grow since their Week 1 victory, where he rushed for two touchdowns. However, they now feel better equipped to stop Daniels. “Early in the season, we were falling short on containment and not being able to handle quarterbacks who scramble,” said cornerback Zyon McCollum.
“We’ve focused on that, and from the D-line to the DBs, we’ve improved in containing those quarterbacks.” In the first half of the season, they allowed 5.0 yards per rush to opposing quarterbacks, but that number dropped to 3.2 in the second half of the season. — Jenna Laine
Stat to know: Since the wild card was introduced in 1978, this will be the fourth instance of two teams meeting in the wild-card round after averaging 28-plus points per game during the regular season. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Daniels will rush for 70 or more yards. Coach Todd Bowles and the Buccaneers love to blitz, sending extra pressure 36% of the time. That gives them advantages, but Daniels scrambles more often against the blitz than anyone else. His average yardage on scrambles jumps from 7.2 on regular plays to 10.7 against the blitz. — Walder
Matchup X factor: Buccaneers wide receiver Jalen McMillan. He has seen an increase in target volume and more touchdowns down the stretch. McMillan has at least one touchdown in his last five games, bringing a deep threat to the offense. Working opposite Mike Evans, McMillan can win his matchups against Washington’s secondary. — Bowen
Injuries: Commanders | Buccaneers
Betting nugget: Four straight Buccaneers games have gone over the total, and overs are 12-5 in their games this season, including 11-3 in their last 14. — ESPN Research
Officiating nugget: Referee Craig Wrolstad’s crew threw the second-most flags per game in the NFL (18). However, he called only four penalties for roughing the passer, which benefits both teams in this game, as they each committed six roughing the passer fouls, tied for third most in the NFL. — Seifert
Kahler’s pick: Commanders 33, Buccaneers 30
Moody’s pick: Commanders 34, Buccaneers 29
Walder’s pick: Commanders 31, Buccaneers 26
FPI prediction: TB, 58.3% (by an average of 3.3 points)
Vikings at (4) Rams
Monday, 8 p.m. ET | ESPN/ABC/ESPN+ | ESPN BET: MIN -2.5 (47.5 O/U)
Location change: The NFL has decided to move this game to Arizona because of the wildfires in Southern California. It was originally scheduled to take place at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California, but now will be held at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, home of the Arizona Cardinals, at the same time on Monday.
Vikings storyline to watch: When these teams played in Week 8, the Rams surprised the Vikings by activating receiver Puka Nacua from injured reserve. The Vikings were caught off guard by Nacua’s involvement, which caused some confusion.
Nacua was targeted three times on the Rams’ opening drive, finishing the game with seven catches for 106 yards, helping the Rams score a season-high 30 points. Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores said, “They are a very different team with Puka out there,” and added that the team will be better prepared for him this time.
Rams storyline to watch: Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford had the highest Total QBR of any quarterback against the Vikings this season in Week 8, with a 87.7. Stafford was only pressured 8.8% of the time in that game, the lowest rate the Vikings allowed all year. Now, Stafford heads into the playoffs with the highest career postseason passing yards per game average (307.9).
Stat to know: Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold is aiming to become the sixth starting quarterback since 1966 to win his first career playoff game while playing for his fourth team or more. Of the five who did this before, three went on to reach the Super Bowl that same season.
Bold prediction: Coach Sean McVay will try to kick a field goal in a situation where he shouldn’t, according to ESPN’s Analytics model. This is expected to be one of the closest games in the wild-card round, and this decision could cost the Rams dearly in a close loss by three points or less.
Matchup X factor: Rams defensive tackle Braden Fiske, a rookie, has the ability to disrupt the Vikings’ quarterback and impact the pocket. Fiske had 8.5 sacks and 32 pressures during the regular season and is well-suited to take on a Vikings offensive line that struggled with power on the interior.
Injuries: Vikings | Rams
Betting nugget: The Vikings are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games and 5-1 against the spread in their last six as favorites.
Officiating nugget: The Rams were flagged the fewest times of any playoff team this season, averaging 6.2 flags per game, ranked fifth in the NFL. Referee John Hussey’s crew also threw the second-fewest flags (13.4 per game), which is good for the Rams since the Vikings drew the most flags in the league (8.3 per game).
Kahler’s pick: Rams 28, Vikings 26
Moody’s pick: Rams 30, Vikings 26
Walder’s pick: Vikings 24, Rams 23
FPI prediction: MIN, 53.9% (by an average of 1.2 points)
Chargers at (4) Texans
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET | CBS/Paramount+ | ESPN BET: LAC -3 (42.5 O/U)
The Texans won 32-12.
Chargers storyline to watch: Quarterback Justin Herbert has only thrown three interceptions this season, the fewest in the NFL, while the Texans’ defense has recorded the second-most interceptions (19). This will be the third playoff game since 2000 between an offense with the fewest interceptions and a defense with the most or second-most interceptions. Will the Texans be able to force Herbert into mistakes and turnovers?
Texans storyline to watch: Both teams have strong defenses when it comes to pressuring quarterbacks. The Texans have the lowest completion percentage allowed (58.8%), while the Chargers sit at 65% (11th). Both quarterbacks, C.J. Stroud and Herbert, are vulnerable to being pressured, with both ranking in the top four for unblocked pressures. The winner will be whichever team can generate consistent pressure.
Stat to know: With a win, Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh would become the second head coach in NFL history to win a playoff game in his first season with two different teams. Pete Carroll did this with the 2010 Seahawks and 1997 Patriots.
Bold prediction: The Texans will fail to score a touchdown. After losing wide receiver Stefon Diggs to an ACL injury in Week 9 and Tank Dell to a knee injury late in the season, the Texans have struggled. They ranked 27th in offensive EPA per play since Week 9 and now face the league’s No. 1 scoring defense.
Matchup X factor: Chargers safety Derwin James Jr., who led all defensive backs with 5.5 sacks and 15 pressures, will be key. James can disrupt the Texans’ zone run game and can blitz to create pressure on their quarterbacks.
Injuries: Chargers | Texans
Betting nugget: 11 of the Texans’ 17 games this season went under the total, tied for the highest under rate in the NFL. 7-1 in home games this season, the Texans have hit the under consistently.
Officiating nugget: Referee Land Clark’s crew threw the fifth-fewest flags in the NFL (13.8 per game), especially for defensive holding (five, the fewest). The Chargers, who were flagged for the second-most defensive holding penalties in the league, will appreciate this.
Kahler’s pick: Chargers 28, Texans 20
Moody’s pick: Chargers 27, Texans 23
Walder’s pick: Chargers 20, Texans 9
FPI prediction: LAC, 52.8% (by an average of 0.9 points)
Steelers at (3) Ravens
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET | Prime Video | ESPN BET: BAL -9.5 (43.5 O/U)
The Ravens won 28-14.
Steelers storyline to watch: The Steelers’ offense has been struggling, averaging just 14 points and 258.8 yards per game during a four-game losing streak. Offensive coordinator Arthur Smith said they need to mix things up, including using quarterback Justin Fields, who has been sidelined since an abdominal injury in Week 15. Fields said he is healthy and ready to contribute however needed. The offense has struggled on first down, ranking last in yards (4.5), success rate (37%), and QBR (40).
Ravens storyline to watch: Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is aiming to overcome his playoff struggles against a Steelers defense that has been faltering. Jackson is 2-4 in postseason games and has a history of turnovers, especially against Pittsburgh. However, the Steelers’ defense has been weak lately, allowing 258.5 passing yards per game during their losing streak.
Stat to know: Steelers running back Najee Harris has averaged 4.0 yards per rush, ranking 35th out of 44 qualified players. His minus-0.01 yards per rush gained over expectation ranks 31st in the NFL.
Bold prediction: Ravens tight end Mark Andrews will catch six or more passes, which would match or surpass his season-high. After a slow start to the season, Andrews has increased his route participation and has strong advanced metrics, including the highest open score among tight ends.
Matchup X factor: Ravens outside linebacker Kyle Van Noy will be key to disrupting the Steelers’ offense with his pass-rush ability. He had 12.5 sacks and 45 pressures during the regular season and fits well in the Ravens’ defensive schemes.
Injuries: Steelers | Ravens
Betting nugget: Six of the past seven Steelers road games went over the total, and five of the Ravens’ past six home games did as well.
Officiating nugget: Referee Alex Kemp’s crew threw 59 offensive holding penalties, the most in the NFL, which is significant because the Ravens were flagged for the third-most offensive holding penalties during the regular season.
Kahler’s pick: Ravens 30, Steelers 24
Moody’s pick: Ravens 28, Steelers 19
Walder’s pick: Ravens 27, Steelers 20
FPI prediction: BAL, 72.2% (by an average of 9.0 points)
