It’s time to wrap up our season-long NFL Power Rankings. Looking back at Week 1, it feels good to say that the only teams we really got wrong were the San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys (we ranked them too high), and the Minnesota Vikings and Washington Commanders (we ranked them way too low).
Dallas and San Francisco struggled with injuries, while Minnesota and Washington are examples of how a good coach and steady quarterback play can quickly change a team’s fortunes.
Although we’ll have the final answer in a few weeks, here’s how I see the teams ranked from best to worst heading into the playoffs. For teams ranked No. 16 and beyond, this ranking is based on both how they finished the season and how quickly they can bounce back.
As usual at this time of year, we’re still trying to figure out what Jerry Jones is doing. He’s also trying to figure out how to get the most attention with whatever decision he makes about the head coaching position. It seems like the message is that changing things may not always make things better, but it must be fun to play the role of an attention-seeking owner for just one day.
Anyway, let’s get started. I hope you enjoyed a Monday without Joe Buck and Troy Aikman. I used the time to read three books, all from the Pete the Cat series.
- Detroit Lions (15–2)
Last week’s ranking: No. 2
Last week’s result: beat Minnesota, 31–9
This week: bye
My preseason Super Bowl favorite Lions are now on a bye week to start the playoffs. Their season-ending win over the Vikings showed both their strong game plan and the depth of the team. It’s interesting how having a culture of player empowerment and development brings out the best in backups when needed.
- Kansas City Chiefs (15–2)
Last week’s ranking: No. 5
Last week’s result: lost to Denver, 38–0
This week: bye
The clock has reset, and Andy Reid has another week to prepare before facing his first postseason opponent. I can talk all year about how this team hasn’t been as great statistically and has had a lot of close wins, but it doesn’t matter. I’m not picking against them in the playoffs.
- Buffalo Bills (13–4)
Last week’s ranking: No. 1
Last week’s result: lost to New England, 23–16
This week: vs. Denver
It’ll be below freezing with possible snow for Sunday’s game. I sometimes complain about NFL football, but there’s something special about mentioning Buffalo being relevant with home field in cold weather this time of year.
- Minnesota Vikings (14–3)
Last week’s ranking: No. 4
Last week’s result: lost to Detroit, 31–9
This week: at Los Angeles Rams
I didn’t see a blowout like others did on Sunday. I saw a Lions team that got some lucky breaks and, perhaps, a little more leeway from the referees with their aggressive secondary play. There’s nothing wrong with some tough physical play, but the Lions knew they were playing under the refs’ watch. I agree with Dan Campbell that these two teams will meet again in a few weeks.
- Philadelphia Eagles (14–3)
Last week’s ranking: No. 3
Last week’s result: beat New York Giants, 20–13
This week: vs. Green Bay
Christian Watson’s season-ending injury doesn’t make me less confident in Philadelphia, but it does make me feel better about Vic Fangio’s ability to handle the offense with one less key player. Green Bay has had a lot of success with their deep receiver group, but missing Watson will hurt them in certain routes this Sunday.
- Baltimore Ravens (12–5)
Last week’s ranking: No. 6
Last week’s result: beat Cleveland, 35–10
This week: vs. Pittsburgh
Zay Flowers’s injury makes me a little less confident about Baltimore avoiding a tough fight against Pittsburgh. While the Steelers aren’t unstoppable, allowing them to stay close past the third quarter is a challenge for any team. That’s why having a game-changing wide receiver is so important.
- Green Bay Packers (11–6)
Last week’s ranking: No. 7
Last week’s result: lost to Chicago, 24–22
This week: at Philadelphia
My first thought about Green Bay’s matchup with the Eagles is that Philadelphia’s defensive line will likely control the game. The Packers will try to run the ball with Josh Jacobs, looking for areas to exploit. But we’ve seen plenty of games this year where Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis have been nearly impossible to block. I’ll be watching closely on Sunday, especially along the line of scrimmage.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10–7)
Last week’s ranking: No. 13
Last week’s result: beat New Orleans, 27–19
This week: vs. Washington
The Buccaneers are feeling good after Mike Evans made NFL history. They went from barely winning a tough game against the Saints to looking strong heading into the playoffs. Don’t forget, this team has beaten good teams like Detroit, Philadelphia, Washington, and even scored 40 points on the Chargers. Earlier in the season, I said they could be a Super Bowl contender, and I still believe that.
- Los Angeles Rams (10–7)
Last week’s ranking: No. 10
Last week’s result: lost to Seattle, 30–25
This week: vs. Minnesota
The Vikings are definitely the more talented team, but I’m curious to see what happens now that the Lions have shown how to handle Kevin O’Connell’s offense with aggressive man-to-man coverage and blitzing Sam Darnold. The Rams’ defense finished the season strong, winning their last three games while allowing fewer than 10 points in each.
- Los Angeles Chargers (11–6)
Last week’s ranking: No. 11
Last week’s result: beat Las Vegas, 34–20
This week: at Houston
Ezekiel Elliott is now with the Chargers, and while this might seem minor, Jim Harbaugh has shown that when his offense has strong, physical running backs, they can wear down opponents. The Texans have one of the best rush defenses in the NFL, but I’m wondering if the Chargers can still control the ball and win.
- Washington Commanders (12–5)
Last week’s ranking: No. 9
Last week’s result: beat Dallas, 23–19
This week: at Tampa Bay
The Commanders are one of the unknowns going into the playoffs, finishing their first season under coach Dan Quinn with a fresh energy. Though this season had some lucky breaks, the Commanders have enough talent on offense to keep up in a shootout, something the Buccaneers have done a few times this year.
- Pittsburgh Steelers (10–7)
Last week’s ranking: No. 8
Last week’s result: lost to Kansas City, 29–10
This week: at Baltimore
The Steelers have struggled to finish strong in the last two seasons, going from 10–3 to 10–7 before reaching the playoffs. It’s hard to see this team stepping up offensively with their current players, but Mike Tomlin’s ability to create key turnovers in big moments is what gives this team a chance. Their familiarity with Baltimore could give them a few opportunities.
- Cincinnati Bengals (9–8)
Last week’s ranking: No. 12
Last week’s result: beat Pittsburgh, 19–17
I agree with many of my colleagues that the Bengals letting go of Lou Anarumo is one of the tough aspects of the business. Anarumo was a great defensive mind who took a job that others didn’t want and helped raise this team to Super Bowl level. Now, Zac Taylor will face a lot of pressure for the 2025 season, which must include a playoff run for the Bengals.
- Denver Broncos (10–7)
Last week’s ranking: No. 14
Last week’s result: beat Kansas City, 38–0
This week: at Buffalo
While we’ll wait and see how the Chiefs’ lack of effort against the Broncos affects them in the future, I believe that a big win against a division rival, no matter the situation, is a good sign for Denver in the playoffs. Buffalo is a tough place to play, but the Broncos are in wild-card mode, and I’m ready to support them.
- Houston Texans (10–7)
Last week’s ranking: No. 15
Last week’s result: beat Tennessee, 23–14
This week: vs. Los Angeles Chargers
It’s another year of the Houston Texans playing in the playoffs on Saturday afternoon. Congratulations to everyone celebrating. While I’m not confident about their chances against a stronger Chargers team, this game is a good one to watch, and it doesn’t feature a quarterback who we have to convince ourselves is worth watching.
- Seattle Seahawks (10–7)
Last week’s ranking: No. 18
Last week’s result: beat Los Angeles Rams, 30–25
The split between Seattle and Ryan Grubb was needed. Even though I liked the idea of Grubb bringing a Washington-style offense to the NFL, his running game just wasn’t up to par with other NFL teams. Some of the team’s best rushing games felt more like luck than well-planned strategies.
- Miami Dolphins (8–9)
Last week’s ranking: No. 17
Last week’s result: lost to New York Jets, 32–20
There seems to be some movement in Miami with Tyreek Hill and Jalen Ramsey possibly leaving, but sometimes such changes can work out for the best. Tua Tagovailoa needs real competition on the team, but letting Mike McDaniel work with a younger, more flexible roster might not be a bad thing.
- Indianapolis Colts (8–9)
Last week’s ranking: No. 21
Last week’s result: beat Jacksonville, 26–23
Just like the Giants kept Brian Daboll, the Colts deserve credit for sticking with another promising young playcaller in Shane Steichen. While the Colts’ offense was often debated this year, especially with Anthony Richardson’s development, it’s hard to argue against the great play designs that gave both Richardson and Joe Flacco great opportunities. Starting there is a good foundation to build on.
- Atlanta Falcons (8–9)
Last week’s ranking: No. 20
Last week’s result: lost to Carolina, 44–38
Now that Bill Belichick is back at school, it’s hard to compare what he’s doing with what Raheem Morris is doing in Atlanta. But I do wonder what will happen next season if the Falcons fail to make the playoffs again, and whether we’ll think about what might have been.
This season felt uncomfortable with just eight wins, especially when Morris had more experience and talent than the previous year under Art Smith. Only improving by one win and losing ground to the Panthers is concerning.
- Arizona Cardinals (8–9)
Last week’s ranking: No. 19
Last week’s result: beat San Francisco, 49–24
Jonathan Gannon has gone from four surprising wins to eight expected wins and a positive point difference. Now, it will be interesting to see if the Cardinals fall into the trap of thinking they can keep improving by making flashy free-agent moves.
The Cardinals have a real chance to win the NFC West next year if they improve again, and it’s hard to ignore that this roster is aging well. If they can find help on the defensive line this offseason, they could be on the rise.
- San Francisco 49ers (6–11)
Last week’s ranking: No. 16
Last week’s result: lost to Arizona, 47–24
I made a point about the Rams a few years ago, and I’ll make the same point about the 49ers now: when a great team has a bad season, it’s the perfect time to take their assistants. There’s less competition, and there are probably three or four coaches on that staff who could call plays in the NFL next season and eventually become head coaches.
- Dallas Cowboys (7–10)
Last week’s ranking: No. 22
Last week’s result: lost to Washington, 23–19
Jerry Jones said about Mike McCarthy possibly interviewing for other jobs that he wants a coach who wants to be in Dallas. McCarthy probably also wants to know if he’s wanted in Dallas so he can secure a job for 2024, after coaching on a one-year contract with a strange end date. I used to work at a place where people were left in panic as their contracts ended without being addressed. While big-money football coaching is less risky since everyone can afford food and gas, it’s still disrespectful.
- Chicago Bears (5–12)
Last week’s ranking: No. 24
Last week’s result: beat Green Bay, 24–22
Word from Chicago is that the Bears want a tough, Captain America-like figure who can shape up the team. No more issues with procedures, no more mistakes with the clock, and a staff that will stop Caleb Williams from running around like a confused player. I’m keeping an eye on candidates like Mike Vrabel, Ben Johnson, Brian Flores, and other coaches like them.
- New York Jets (5–12)
Last week’s ranking: No. 31
Last week’s result: beat Miami, 32–20
We finish the Jets’ disappointing 2024 season with a glimpse of what could have been if Woody Johnson hadn’t panicked and fired Robert Saleh after losing to the Vikings by a touchdown in London. The Vikings were a 14-win team and one of the best in the NFL. I’m sure Johnson will get the next decision right.
- New Orleans Saints (5–12)
Last week’s ranking: No. 27
Last week’s result: lost to Tampa Bay, 27–19
Cam Jordan posted on X that Darren Rizzi did a lot with little during his time with the Saints. While I’d like to see Rizzi be considered for the full-time head coaching job, the Saints know they need to make a change. David Shaw, the former Stanford coach, is an interesting candidate along with Aaron Glenn. Despite the issues in New Orleans, the team could still end up with a big name that temporarily fixes the fan dissatisfaction.
- Carolina Panthers (5–12)
Last week’s ranking: No. 25
Last week’s result: beat Atlanta, 44–38
It’s hard not to feel happy seeing Bryce Young pull off a big upset against the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday, a team fighting for a playoff spot. Young has faced challenges in the NFL, even being left behind by a meddling owner before, but miraculously, David Tepper got the head coaching hire right this time. Dave Canales can now add Young to his list of success stories with Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield. Quite the resume.
- Jacksonville Jaguars (4–13)
Last week’s ranking: No. 28
Last week’s result: lost to Indianapolis, 26–23
Keeping Trent Baalke is one of the more surprising decisions made by an owner recently. Shad Khan praised Baalke’s work with some aspects of the team’s operation, things that could have been handled by an owner. The Jaguars still have a long way to go before reaching rock bottom, as they should work hard to fix Trevor Lawrence.
- New England Patriots (4–13)
Last week’s ranking: No. 29
Last week’s result: beat Buffalo, 23–16
I thought Robert Kraft showed some accountability after firing Jerod Mayo, which was a surprising move. Most billionaires would have just brushed through a press conference like this one, but Kraft admitted what many of us were thinking: Mayo was set up to fail and discarded for someone more certain. I’m looking forward to hearing from Mike Vrabel (or, in an unusual scenario, Ben Johnson) at their press conferences.
- New York Giants (3–14)
Last week’s ranking: No. 26
Last week’s result: lost to Philadelphia, 20–13
The Giants made the right decision to keep Brian Daboll and Joe Schoen on Monday. Despite some fans complaining, it was always going to be helpful to give Daboll a chance with a real veteran quarterback of his choosing and another high first-round draft pick.
Many teams kept their coaches, as we only have five vacancies right now, and most teams see this coaching class as top-heavy with some coaches who need more experience. If it doesn’t work out, the Giants will likely have a high draft pick next year, with a better quarterback class.
- Las Vegas Raiders (4–13)
Last week’s ranking: No. 23
Last week’s result: lost to Los Angeles Chargers, 34–20
The Raiders are taking their time with what happens next for Antonio Pierce. But I’m curious to see what he can do with more time. Pierce had trouble finding his identity as a game manager this season, but with his veteran-heavy staff, they might have more time to gel this offseason and come up with something interesting.
- Tennessee Titans (3–14)
Last week’s ranking: No. 32
Last week’s result: lost to Houston, 23–14
The Titans haven’t made any changes yet, but that doesn’t mean things are fine in Nashville. As we mentioned in a recent column, the Titans are moving toward a new stadium and need to create a team that will attract fans. This could start with the No. 1 pick, but just like when they were deciding between Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston, there may not be a perfect solution. Tough times are ahead for Brian Callahan.
- Cleveland Browns (3–14)
Last week’s ranking: No. 30
Last week’s result: lost to Baltimore, 35–10
The Browns finish the season last because, well, it seems like they wanted to. The No. 2 pick makes for an interesting offseason, though I don’t think it will be a big trade-up opportunity for a team needing a quarterback. Right now, it’s hard to see that pick leading to a franchise quarterback. However, with Deshaun Watson needing more time to recover from his Achilles injury and the Browns likely wanting to move on from him, having a high pick is better than not having one.
