Wild-card weekend result: Lost 31-7 to the Bills
The Broncos were outplayed on Sunday, but their season should still be seen as a success. With low expectations after moving on from Russell Wilson and starting over with rookie quarterback Bo Nix, they reached 10 wins and made it to the playoffs, which is a big achievement after eight years away. Any Denver fan would have accepted that kind of season.
The Broncos finished five games behind the Chiefs, partly because of their dominant win over Kansas City’s backup players in Week 18. They came close to beating the Chiefs in November, but Kansas City was more consistent throughout the season.
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have ruled the AFC West since he became the starter. The Chargers tied with them for the division but lost out on tiebreakers in 2018. Since then, no team has come closer to challenging for the division title except the Raiders in 2021, who finished two games behind the Chiefs.
Like the Chargers, the Broncos want to close the gap. So, what do they need to do to get there? And how did those issues show up in their loss to the Bills on Sunday? Here are two key things:
A more effective running game. While coach Sean Payton’s teams always like to pass when they trust their quarterback, the best versions of his Saints teams could run the ball well. Players like Reggie Bush and Alvin Kamara made highlight plays, but Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory also averaged over 4.5 yards per carry due to smart playcalling and good offensive line play.
The Broncos invested heavily in their offensive line this season, and it showed. Despite using different running backs, their run game never really came together. Denver’s running backs were ranked 25th in yards per carry over expectation.
Nix was good at scrambling and throwing screens and swing passes, which helped the run game, but when he wasn’t involved, the Broncos struggled to run the ball. On first-and-10, their backs ranked 30th in yards per carry and had only one run of 10 or more yards in 205 attempts.
Payton, who reminded himself to “RUN IT!!!” on his play sheet, didn’t get to run much against the Bills. Buffalo has a strong run defense, ranking fifth in success rate against the run. Denver’s three running backs only carried the ball 11 times for 28 yards. By the fourth quarter, the Broncos weren’t going to run much, but when you have zero first downs from your running backs, it’s hard to win.
The Broncos’ running backs are uncertain for the future. Javonte Williams is entering free agency, and he lost his starting role as the season went on. McLaughlin earned Payton’s trust but only had over 10 carries twice. Estime was inactive against the Bills. While Mims had success in the backfield, he is more of a gadget player than a regular running back.
Before the season, I wondered if Payton might try to bring in players like Kamara or Taysom Hill from New Orleans, but Kamara signed an extension, and Hill suffered an injury. The Broncos will likely look for a new top running back in the 2025 draft.
Better coverage at linebacker and safety. The Broncos had one of the best defenses this season, but when other teams succeeded, they usually targeted the linebackers and safeties in coverage. Denver ranked 25th in QBR allowed on throws to the middle of the field.
They were 15th in QBR allowed when quarterbacks used play-action, which places more pressure on linebackers and safeties. While this isn’t terrible, it shows that there’s room for improvement, especially for a defense that’s considered among the best in the league.
Against the Bills, Josh Allen had success targeting the middle of the field. He completed 7 out of 12 passes for 93 yards against this area. Even though Buffalo didn’t use play-action often, when they did, it worked. Allen threw for 202 yards with two touchdowns against the Broncos’ man-to-man defense. This highlights how even a great defense can be exploited by top quarterbacks and strong receiving groups.
Denver signed safety Brandon Jones last offseason, but they may look to upgrade over P.J. Locke in 2025. Starting linebackers Cody Barton (who replaced the injured Alex Singleton) and Singleton himself had struggles in coverage this season. Singleton will be entering the final year of his contract, and the Broncos might want to invest in a stronger linebacker.
Justin Strnad returned to defense after two years on special teams, but Denver may look to add more depth at linebacker. Improving coverage up the middle could be a key focus for the team next offseason.
