NFL Wild-Card Playoffs: Has Justin Herbert reached his limit in Los Angeles Chargers?

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Justin Herbert throws a pass in the 1st half

Wild-card weekend result: Lost 32-12 to the Texans

What started as a promising season for the Chargers quickly turned into a major setback on Saturday. Justin Herbert became the first player in NFL history with 150 regular-season pass attempts to throw more interceptions in a playoff game than he did during the season. He threw four interceptions in the game against Houston after only three in the regular season.

The loss was especially tough for the Chargers because they had opportunities to win. They moved easily down the field on the opening drive, but after getting stopped on third-and-1, they had to settle for a field goal. The Texans turned the ball over on their first snap, but tight end Will Dissly dropped a potential second-and-19 conversion, and the Chargers settled for another three points.

They also missed an interception from Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud on the following drive, which could have given them good field position. After intercepting Stroud in the second quarter, Herbert threw an interception on the very next play.

Stroud recovered a bad snap and threw a 34-yard pass to Xavier Hutchinson, setting up the Texans’ first points. While the Chargers had chances in the second half, their control over the Texans’ offense faded.

The Chargers should have been able to win before Stroud’s play helped the Texans bounce back. Los Angeles had seven possessions in the first half, two of which started in Houston’s territory. However, after a strong opening drive, the Chargers only gained 66 yards on the next six possessions in the first half, scoring just three points. The Texans typically struggle when trailing, as shown in their losses to the Vikings and Ravens.

Houston’s defense deserves a lot of credit for stepping up after the Chargers’ opening drive. They did a great job against the run and pressured the Chargers’ offensive line, especially with Denico Autry and edge rushers Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. The two combined for nine QB pressures, which is impressive given that the Chargers dropped back 36 times.

However, much of the blame falls on Herbert. Throwing four interceptions against any defense is unacceptable, and while one of the interceptions came from a drop by Dissly, the other interceptions were on Herbert.

The first interception was a bad decision, trying to throw a jump ball across the field to Quentin Johnston. It was a risky throw, and even though Johnston had a step on his defender, it took too long for the ball to get there.

The second interception was even worse, as it turned into a pick-six. Herbert hesitated on a hitch route and then, in a crowded pocket, threw too high to an open McConkey. Safety Eric Murray easily intercepted the pass and returned it for a touchdown.

Justin Herbert celebrates after a touchdown in the 2nd half

Herbert started the game 1-of-11 for 17 yards, with two interceptions against pressure before finally connecting with McConkey on a risky 50-50 ball for the Chargers’ only offensive touchdown. Again, starting 1-of-11 with two picks under pressure is poor against any defense.

There were more issues. Herbert was late on some throws, including an out to McConkey that allowed Derek Stingley Jr. to break up the pass. Herbert also struggled with pressure and took a hard hit on a sack by Anderson. His usual scrambling ability was missing, as he didn’t rush the ball once. In contrast, Stroud managed to run for 44 yards.

Late in the game, the Chargers tried to hit DJ Chark on a double-move past Stingley, but Herbert didn’t get enough on his throw, and Stingley made a key play to grab the fourth interception for Houston.

Herbert’s poor performance should raise questions about his season, which was more decent than exceptional. He ranked 18th in first-down rate and 24th in success rate as a passer. While his interception rate was impressive, it was partly balanced out by his sack rate, which reached a career-high 8%.

Some of that was due to the interior of the offensive line struggling, but he also ran into some sacks, including the one that led to his early-season ankle injury.

Interception totals can vary more from year to year than almost any other quarterback stat, and throwing three picks in a season always involves some luck. Facing one of the easiest schedules, Herbert finished 11th in QBR, which is okay but two spots behind Kyler Murray of Arizona.

It’s clear from watching Herbert for just a short time that he has the potential to be a top player. However, getting him to play at that level every week is harder. With new offensive coordinator Greg Roman, the plan was to focus more on the run, hoping a solid running game would help unlock Herbert’s potential.

In the loss to the Texans, the Chargers couldn’t get their running game going. They ranked 23rd in yards per carry (4.1) and 24th in success rate on rushing attempts. After J.K. Dobbins rushed for over 130 yards in the first two weeks, no Chargers running back reached 100 yards in any game for the rest of the season.

Los Angeles Chargers players celebrate after an interception in the 2nd half

The Chargers didn’t spend much on the running back position and couldn’t create big plays on the ground. The scheme generated only 3.9 expected yards per carry, ranking 24th. If Roman is in charge of the offense but the team can’t run the ball, there might be a problem with the coaching.

Roman’s passing attack has never been very creative, and it’s telling that Lamar Jackson’s passing improved in Baltimore after Roman was replaced by Todd Monken in 2023.

Throughout the game, the Chargers had trouble dealing with the Texans’ defense. They couldn’t handle the defensive line’s pressure and made too many mistakes. A key moment came during a fourth-and-2 play in the third quarter when McConkey was double-teamed, and Herbert threw to Johnston, who was one-on-one against Stingley.

Johnston ran his route short of the first down, and after being tackled by Stingley for a 1-yard gain, his catch was ruled incomplete upon review.

The Chargers need to build a stronger team around Herbert for 2025. With almost $77 million in cap space, they have room to improve, and McConkey has shown he’s a star to build around. The offense relied too much on Johnston and Dissly, who had trouble catching passes. There’s nothing wrong with using bigger personnel or focusing on the run, but those concepts need to be effective.

Once again, too much of the burden fell on Herbert in an important game. As we saw in the loss to the Jaguars two years ago, Herbert was found wanting again. We know his potential, but five years into his career, we’re still waiting for the right situation around him to help him fully reach it.

By Robert Jackson

An avid football fan (A red). And an Otaku by the definition of the word.

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