The wild-card round for the 2024 NFL playoffs features six exciting matchups, and we have all the key details you need to know for the weekend.
Our NFL Nation reporters highlight the key aspects of each game, and analyst Seth Walder offers bold predictions for every matchup. NFL expert Matt Bowen points out important matchups to watch, while staff writer Kevin Seifert discusses the officiating.
The ESPN Research team shares significant stats and betting insights for each game, and our Football Power Index (FPI) provides game projections. Finally, three analysts—Kalyn Kahler, Eric Moody, and Walder—give their final score predictions for each game.
Everything you need for a packed weekend of NFL playoff action is here. Let’s look at the full wild-card slate, including an AFC North showdown between the Steelers and Ravens and the Packers visiting Philadelphia.
Matchups: LAC-HOU | PIT-BAL | DEN-BUF
GB-PHI | WSH-TB | MIN-LAR
Byes: DET, KC
(5) Chargers at (4) Texans
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET | CBS/Paramount+ | ESPN BET: LAC -3 (42.5 O/U)
Chargers storyline to watch: Quarterback Justin Herbert has only three interceptions this season, the fewest in the NFL, while the Texans’ defense has the second-most interceptions (19). This will be the third playoff game since 2000 between an offense with the fewest interceptions and a defense with the most or second-most interceptions. Can Houston force Herbert into mistakes? – Kris Rhim
Texans storyline to watch: Both teams have strong defenses that pressure quarterbacks. The Texans allow the lowest completion percentage in the league (58.8%), and the Chargers are ranked 11th in that category (65%). Both quarterbacks, C.J. Stroud and Herbert, are vulnerable to being pressured, as they rank among the top four in unblocked pressures. The team that can generate consistent pressure will likely win. – DJ Bien-Aime
Stat to know: A win on Saturday would make Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh the second in NFL history to win a playoff game in his first season with two different teams, joining Pete Carroll, who did it with the Seahawks in 2010 and the Patriots in 1997. – ESPN Research
Bold prediction: The Texans won’t score a touchdown. Since Week 9, after losing Stefon Diggs to a torn ACL, the Texans have ranked 27th in offensive EPA per play. With another key loss in receiver Tank Dell, they’ll struggle against the No. 1 scoring defense. – Walder
Matchup X factor: Chargers safety Derwin James Jr. He led all defensive backs with 5.5 sacks and 15 pressures. He’s a key disruptor and can impact the Texans’ run game by blitzing early. – Bowen
Injuries: Chargers | Texans
Betting nugget: Eleven of the Texans’ 17 games this season went under the total, tied with the Giants for the highest under rate in the NFL. Houston also saw seven unders in eight home games. – ESPN Research
Officiating nugget: Referee Land Clark’s crew threw the fifth-fewest flags in the NFL (13.8 per game) and was particularly strict about defensive holding (only five, the fewest in the league). This should benefit the Chargers, who had the second-most defensive holding penalties. – Seifert
Kahler’s pick: Chargers 28, Texans 20
Moody’s pick: Chargers 27, Texans 23
Walder’s pick: Chargers 20, Texans 9
FPI prediction: LAC, 52.8% (by an average of 0.9 points)
(6) Steelers at (3) Ravens
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET | Prime Video | ESPN BET: BAL -9.5 (43.5 O/U)
Steelers storyline to watch: The Steelers’ offense has struggled in a four-game losing streak, averaging just 14 points and 258.8 yards per game. Offensive coordinator Arthur Smith may get creative to help, possibly using more of quarterback Justin Fields, who’s been sidelined since Week 15 with an abdominal injury. Fields is healthy and ready to contribute. The Steelers’ offense needs to improve, especially on first downs, where they rank last in yards and success rate. – Brooke Pryor
Ravens storyline to watch: Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is trying to overcome his playoff struggles, facing a Steelers defense that has been weakening. Jackson is 2-4 in the postseason with six interceptions and three lost fumbles. He has struggled particularly against the Steelers, but their defense has allowed 258.5 passing yards per game in the past four games. – Jamison Hensley
Stat to know: Steelers running back Najee Harris averages 4.0 yards per rush, ranking 35th out of 44 qualified players. His minus-0.01 yards per rush gained over expectation ranks 31st in the NFL. – ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Ravens tight end Mark Andrews will catch six or more passes, matching or exceeding his season high. His route participation has increased, and he’s been very effective in advanced metrics, with the highest open score among tight ends. – Walder
Matchup X factor: Ravens outside linebacker Kyle Van Noy. He’ll be used in twists and stunts to disrupt the pocket. With 12.5 sacks and 45 pressures this season, he’s a perfect fit for the Ravens’ defensive scheme. – Bowen
Injuries: Steelers | Ravens
Betting nugget: Six of the past seven Steelers road games have gone over the total, and five of the Ravens’ last six home games have also gone over. – ESPN Research
Officiating nugget: Referee Alex Kemp’s crew threw the most flags for offensive holding (59) in the NFL. The Ravens were flagged for the third-most offensive holding penalties in the regular season (29), while the Steelers had 18. – Seifert
Kahler’s pick: Ravens 30, Steelers 24
Moody’s pick: Ravens 28, Steelers 19
Walder’s pick: Ravens 27, Steelers 20
FPI prediction: BAL, 72.2% (by an average of 9.0 points)
(7) Broncos at (2) Bills
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET | CBS/Paramount+ | ESPN BET: BUF -8 (47.5 O/U)
Broncos storyline to watch: The Broncos are back in the playoffs after an eight-year drought, and they face one of the AFC’s top quarterbacks. This season, the Broncos struggled against quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, and Justin Herbert, failing to beat them. Now, they will try to stop Josh Allen, who has 12 rushing touchdowns, matching the Broncos’ team total. The Broncos will need to limit Allen’s “second act” plays—his ability to make big plays after his initial reads are covered. – Jeff Legwold
Bills storyline to watch: The Bills have done well in the wild-card round, with a 4-1 record when Josh Allen starts. The main concern for them heading into the playoffs is their defense’s ability to get off the field. They rank among the worst in third-down conversion percentage allowed (43.8%) and have had trouble sacking the quarterback (39 sacks, tied for 18th). On the other hand, rookie quarterback Bo Nix has been tough to sack, getting only 24 sacks, tied for the third fewest in the league. Bills coach Sean McDermott has praised Nix’s poise and ability to extend plays. – Alaina Getzenberg
Stat to know: The Bills turned the ball over only eight times this season, tied for the fewest since turnovers were first tracked in 1933. – ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Josh Allen will rush for at least five first downs or score a touchdown with his legs. While Broncos cornerback Pat Surtain II can shut down receivers, Allen has other ways to hurt a defense. Despite the Broncos allowing the third-fewest rushing yards per game (96.4), expect Allen to scramble often on Sunday. – Walder
Matchup X factor: Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton. The Broncos can create open spaces for Sutton to run deep routes against a Bills defense that plays zone coverage on over 68% of dropbacks. Sutton had 32 receptions of 15 or more yards this season, and the Broncos will need similar plays to upset the Bills. – Bowen
Injuries: Broncos | Bills
Betting nugget: In the past 10 seasons, rookie quarterbacks are 0-5 outright and 1-4 against the spread (ATS) in road playoff games. – ESPN Research
Officiating nugget: Referee Bill Vinovich’s crew threw the fewest flags in the NFL this season, averaging only 12.9 per game. This benefits both teams, as the Bills (18th) and Broncos (21st) were in the upper half of the NFL in penalties. – Seifert
Kahler’s pick: Bills 28, Broncos 21
Moody’s pick: Broncos 27, Bills 24
Walder’s pick: Bills 28, Broncos 17
FPI prediction: BUF, 68.1% (by an average of 7.1 points)
(7) Packers at (2) Eagles
Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: PHI -4.5 (45.5 O/U)
Packers storyline to watch: The Packers have their highest defensive ranking (fifth) since their Super Bowl win in 2010. However, they have struggled to contain Eagles running back Saquon Barkley, who has posted over 100 scrimmage yards and a touchdown in each of the last three games against them, including the 2024 season opener. – Rob Demovsky
Eagles storyline to watch: Quarterback Jalen Hurts continues to recover from a concussion and is expected to play unless something changes. The key question is whether the Eagles’ passing offense can find a rhythm, as Hurts hasn’t played since December 22. The Eagles have had slow starts this season, especially in the first quarter, where they failed to score 10 times. Their offense has improved in recent weeks, but it will face a challenge against a Packers team that has allowed just 19.9 points per game, the sixth-best in the NFL. – Tim McManus
Stat to know: The Packers scored more than 30 points in five of their final seven games, including five straight from Weeks 12 through 16. That streak is the second-longest in franchise history after a seven-game streak in 1963. – ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Eagles defensive tackle Jalen Carter will bat down a pass, and it will be intercepted. Carter has batted down six passes this season, the second-most in the NFL. He’ll face a relatively weak pass blocker in Packers guard Sean Rhyan, so expect him to disrupt one of Jordan Love’s throws on Sunday. – Walder
Matchup X factor: Packers linebacker Edgerrin Cooper. Cooper is good at tracking ball carriers on the edges and covering intermediate routes. If the Packers want to win in Philly, he will need to limit Barkley’s runs and clog the middle of the field in pass coverage. – Bowen
Injuries: Packers | Eagles
Betting nugget: The Eagles are 9-3 against the spread (ATS) in their last 12 games, including three straight home games. – ESPN Research
Officiating nugget: Referee Brad Allen’s crew threw the third-fewest flags per game (13.4), but they called 10 roughing the passer penalties, the second-most in the league. This is good news for both quarterbacks, as Hurts and Love benefited from a combined three roughing the passer calls during the regular season. – Seifert
Kahler’s pick: Eagles 34, Packers 28
Moody’s pick: Eagles 31, Packers 21
Walder’s pick: Eagles 24, Packers 21
FPI prediction: PHI, 51.2% (by an average of 0.4 points)
(6) Commanders at (3) Buccaneers
Sunday, 8 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | ESPN BET: TB -3 (50.5 O/U)
Commanders storyline to watch: Washington’s defense has improved since their Week 1 loss to Tampa Bay. After struggling early in the season, ranking 29th in points allowed per game (29.3), they ended the season ranked 12th in scoring defense (21.6 points per game) and fourth in total yards (316.1). However, they will face a challenge against the Buccaneers’ improved run game, led by rookie Bucky Irving, who has helped them rank second in rushing yards per game over the past seven weeks (183.3). Washington ranks 30th in run defense, allowing 137.5 rushing yards per game. – John Keim
Buccaneers storyline to watch: The Buccaneers have seen quarterback Jayden Daniels develop since their Week 1 win. Daniels rushed for two touchdowns in that game, but the Bucs now feel better equipped to contain him. Early in the season, they struggled to stop scrambling quarterbacks, giving up 5.0 yards per rush to QBs (22nd in the league). That number has improved to 3.2 yards per rush (third best). – Jenna Laine
Stat to know: This is the fourth instance of two teams meeting in the wild-card round after averaging more than 28 points per game in the regular season since the wild-card round was introduced in 1978. – ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Daniels will rush for 70 or more yards. Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles loves to blitz, but Daniels scrambles very well against the blitz. His rushing average increases from 7.2 yards per scramble to 10.7 yards against the blitz. – Walder
Matchup X factor: Buccaneers wide receiver Jalen McMillan. McMillan has been more involved in the offense recently, with at least one touchdown in each of the last five games. He provides a deep threat opposite Mike Evans and can take advantage of Washington’s weaker secondary. – Bowen
Injuries: Commanders | Buccaneers
Betting nugget: Four straight Buccaneers games have gone over the total. They are 12-5 on overs this season, including 11-3 in their last 14 games. – ESPN Research
Officiating nugget: Referee Craig Wrolstad’s crew threw the second-most flags per game (18), but they only called four roughing the passer penalties, which benefits both teams, as each committed six roughing the passer fouls during the regular season. – Seifert
Kahler’s pick: Commanders 33, Buccaneers 30
Moody’s pick: Commanders 34, Buccaneers 29
Walder’s pick: Commanders 31, Buccaneers 26
FPI prediction: TB, 58.3% (by an average of 3.3 points)
(5) Vikings at (4) Rams
Monday, 8 p.m. ET | ESPN/ABC/ESPN+ | ESPN BET: MIN -2.5 (47.5 O/U)
Location change: The NFL moved this game to Arizona, as announced on Thursday night. The decision was made for public safety reasons due to wildfires in Southern California. Originally set to be played at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California, it will now be held at Glendale’s State Farm Stadium, home of the Arizona Cardinals, at the same time on Monday.
Vikings storyline to watch: In their Week 8 matchup, the Rams surprised the Vikings by activating receiver Puka Nacua from injured reserve. Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores admitted that they weren’t prepared for Nacua’s involvement, which caused some scrambling. The Rams targeted Nacua three times on their first drive, and he ended the game with seven catches for 106 yards. As a result, the Rams scored a season-high 30 points. Flores acknowledged, “They are a very different team with Puka out there,” and promised to do a better job preparing for him this time. – Kevin Seifert
Rams storyline to watch: Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford had a Total QBR of 87.7 against the Vikings in Week 8, the highest of any starting quarterback against Minnesota this season, according to ESPN Research. He was pressured on only 8.8% of dropbacks in that game, the lowest pressure rate the Vikings’ defense allowed all year. Now, he enters the playoffs with the highest average passing yards per game in postseason history (307.9). – Sarah Barshop
Stat to know: The Vikings’ Sam Darnold is trying to become the sixth quarterback since 1966 to win his first postseason start while playing for his fourth team or later. Of the previous five, three reached the Super Bowl that season. – ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Rams coach Sean McVay will try to kick a field goal in a situation where the ESPN Analytics model suggests he shouldn’t. This is expected to be a close game, and the decision to kick will cost the Rams, leading to a loss by three points or fewer. – Walder
Matchup X factor: Rams defensive tackle Braden Fiske. Fiske, a rookie, has the ability to affect the pocket with his pass rush. He recorded 8.5 sacks and 32 pressures during the regular season. He also has the skills to match up well against a Vikings offensive line that struggled against power plays on the interior. – Bowen
Injuries: Vikings | Rams
Betting nugget: The Vikings are 6-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last eight games. They are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as favorites. – ESPN Research
Officiating nugget: The Rams were the least penalized playoff team, with an average of 6.2 flags per game, ranking fifth in the NFL. They’ll be happy with referee John Hussey’s crew, which called the second-fewest penalties in the NFL (13.4 per game). This is especially good for the Rams, as the Vikings had the most penalties (8.3 per game) in the league. – Seifert
Kahler’s pick: Rams 28, Vikings 26
Moody’s pick: Rams 30, Vikings 26
Walder’s pick: Vikings 24, Rams 23
FPI prediction: MIN, 53.9% (by an average of 1.2 points)
