The wild-card games this weekend really didn’t impress many. Was it Justin Herbert throwing his fourth interception? Pittsburgh punting multiple times in a row? Or Denver’s repeated three-and-outs? Without the Tampa Bay-Washington game, which provided a little excitement, it would have been a weekend full of disappointing football.
This first round of the NFL playoffs felt more like a repeat of the College Football Playoff, but in a negative way. In most of the first four games, the home teams dominated without much challenge, winning early in the first half and barely breaking a sweat. By the end of each game, commentators were already discussing the next round’s matchups.
The truth about football is that the gap between the top teams and the others is huge and hard to overcome. In these games, only the randomness of a single game can create surprising results. For instance, if the Bills played the Broncos in a best-of-seven series, Denver would be lucky to win one game.
Looking at the wild-card round trend since it expanded to six games in 2020, the higher seed usually wins with big margins. In 2024, if the Minnesota Vikings and the Rams manage a close game, it will be one of the few, as the higher seed has won most games by large scores.
In 2023, only one game was closer than 14 points, and the higher seed won five out of six. This pattern has mostly remained in previous years as well.
So, what does this mean for future playoffs? Adding more teams to the playoff mix won’t change the balance of competition. With the NFL expanding to 16 playoff teams and the season increasing to 18 games, it’s clear we’re headed for more blowouts and teams that don’t quite deserve a playoff spot.
The argument for expanding the playoffs is simple—more teams bring in more fans and revenue. But if you look at this year’s playoff race, only three teams were fighting for spots in Week 18, and they weren’t exactly impressive.
While we might see a few surprises, like the Washington-Tampa Bay game, the usual outcome for wild-card weekends will likely be more blowouts and unexciting games.
