The longest college football season in history is nearing its end, with only one game left. The season began on August 24, 2024, when Georgia Tech defeated then-No. 10 Florida State 24-21 in Ireland. This game set the stage for a season full of surprises.
Now, nearly five months later, (7) Notre Dame and (8) Ohio State are set to face each other in the College Football Playoff National Championship in Atlanta. Both teams have earned their spot in this game. Notre Dame defeated Indiana, Georgia, and Penn State to get here, while Ohio State has defeated Tennessee, Oregon, and Texas.
These teams have proven to be among the best in the country this season, even though each has one surprising loss. However, only one team will leave with the national title. The spread suggests Ohio State is the heavy favorite, but is that the best bet? Let’s break down the spread, total, and a few prop bets for this matchup between two of the biggest programs in college football.
National Championship: (7) Notre Dame vs. (8) Ohio State
Spread
One of the biggest challenges in the expanded College Football Playoff is dealing with injuries. As teams play more games, injuries become more common. Both teams have had injuries during the season, but Notre Dame has faced more difficulties in the playoffs. Ohio State’s offensive line has been hit hard, and Notre Dame has suffered injuries all over the roster.
In the playoffs, Notre Dame lost star defensive tackle Rylie Mills early and also lost two offensive linemen in the win over Penn State, including left tackle Anthonie Knapp. Knapp has been ruled out for the title game, but there’s a possibility Charles Jagusah, who was supposed to start earlier in the season before getting injured, could replace him.
Despite the injuries, Notre Dame has been a strong team. However, facing Ohio State, arguably the most talented team in the country, makes this matchup challenging. Outside of their loss to Michigan, Ohio State has been excellent all season. Their defense has been particularly strong in the playoffs, overpowering Tennessee, Oregon, and Texas. Although Notre Dame’s offensive line has been solid, their current patchwork line may struggle against Ohio State’s defensive line, which has been dominant.
While Notre Dame’s defense has been impressive all season, they haven’t faced an offense as strong as Ohio State’s. Ohio State has proven its defense can handle high-scoring teams, holding Tennessee, Oregon, and Texas to just 52 points combined in the first three rounds of the playoffs.
Notre Dame’s offense, while strong, relies heavily on the run game, which may not match up well with Ohio State’s top-tier defense, especially given the state of Notre Dame’s offensive line. Based on the current situation, it’s hard to bet on Notre Dame. Pick: Ohio State -8
Total
While I’m confident in picking Ohio State to cover the spread, I feel even more confident in betting on the total. The main reason is that Notre Dame’s offense may struggle to score many points. The Irish will likely need to generate points through defense or special teams, areas they’ve excelled in all season.
On the other hand, Ohio State’s offense may not easily light up the Notre Dame defense. While Notre Dame’s defense has been injured, they’ve been opportunistic and effective all season. It’s not unrealistic to think they can slow down Ohio State’s offense. In the past, Texas showed how to successfully defend against Ohio State by limiting key players like Jeremiah Smith. If you’re hoping for a high-scoring game, you may be disappointed. Pick: Under 46.5
Props
- Notre Dame QB Riley Leonard (37.5 yards rushing): Leonard’s mobility is key to Notre Dame’s offense. However, Ohio State’s defensive line has been dominant, and their pass rush has led to several sacks. Leonard has been sacked six times in three playoff games, which has affected his rushing totals. While Leonard is capable, it’s hard to see him hitting this rushing yard total. Pick: Under
- Ohio State TE Gee Scott (17.5 yards receiving): Scott has been more involved in the offense during the playoffs, with 10 catches for 99 yards in three games. He has exceeded this yardage in each playoff game and has had at least 30 yards in every game. With Notre Dame focusing on Ohio State’s star receivers, Scott will likely get more opportunities. It wouldn’t take much for him to hit this mark. Pick: Over
