Wayne Gretzky’s records are not meant to be broken. He has nearly 1,000 more career points (2,857) than Jaromir Jagr (1,921, who is in second place) and over 1,200 more than the closest active player, Sidney Crosby (1,644). Gretzky also has more than 700 more assists (1,963) than second-place Ron Francis (1,249) and nearly 1,000 more than Crosby, the active leader (1,040).
For Alex Ovechkin to be just 21 goals away from tying Gretzky’s record of 894 is a huge achievement, and this chase has created a lot of excitement. As with any major historical moment, bettors are looking to get involved. It helps that the Washington Capitals captain is ahead of schedule in the goal race, and his team is performing unexpectedly well in the league.
During the 2023-24 season, the 39-year-old scored 31 goals in 79 games, averaging 0.39 goals per game, the lowest of his career. Many thought that Father Time had caught up with Ovechkin, and he would need at least two more seasons to catch Gretzky.
Sportsbooks still wanted to take advantage of the excitement around Ovechkin’s record chase but also acknowledged it was unlikely he would break the record during the 2024-25 season. BetMGM, DraftKings, and FanDuel offered a special bet on him breaking the record this season (scoring goal 895), opening with +1000 odds. Other sportsbooks like Caesars and ESPN BET didn’t offer this market at the start of the season because it seemed unlikely.
Ovechkin began the season with an amazing scoring streak, netting 15 goals in his first 18 games, averaging 0.83 goals per game. This would be his best rate for an entire season. The Washington Capitals also surprised everyone by performing well.
At the start of the season, they were ranked 75-1 to win the Stanley Cup, tied for 23rd in the league. But by mid-season, they were leading both the Metropolitan Division and the Eastern Conference with 63 points, tied with the Winnipeg Jets for the most points in the NHL.
“I didn’t think we’d be where we are today,” said Karry Shreeve, head of hockey at Caesars Sportsbook. “I certainly didn’t project the Capitals as a team to be where they are, and that reflects where we stand with some of our positions. So it also meant I didn’t expect Ovechkin to be near the record.”
The Capitals’ unexpected success caused trouble for sportsbooks, with BetMGM reporting that Washington was their second-largest liability to win the Cup, behind only the popular New York Rangers. Shreeve said his team didn’t “buy in” to the hot start and didn’t adjust the odds on the Capitals’ future bets until they had to. He added that “customers will do very well” if Washington wins the division, conference, or championship.
The Capitals’ great start has made them a profitable bet on most nights. A bettor who placed $100 on every game would have made $1,279 by backing Washington in every contest on the money line. However, Johnny Avello, sportsbook director at DraftKings, said Ovechkin’s scoring streak hasn’t affected how the sportsbook sets its lines.
Despite the team’s success, this season hasn’t been without problems. On Nov. 18, Ovechkin scored two goals against the Utah Hockey Club, just one night after recording his first hat trick of the season. But during the game, he collided with Utah’s Jack McBain and fractured his fibula, which kept him out for 16 games. This injury briefly slowed his record chase and increased the odds of him breaking Gretzky’s record this season after they had dropped earlier.
“Pre-injury, Ovechkin set the clock back a few years and was on track to break the record easily this year. Everyone was excited about it,” said BetMGM senior trader Matthew Rowe. “Since his return, his production has slowed a bit, and now we see more balanced action. The odds are still dropping on him breaking the record this season.”
Shreeve and his team at Caesars used Ovechkin’s time off to reevaluate the special bet. They reopened the market shortly after Ovechkin’s return, and after scoring five goals in 10 games back, his odds to break the record this season were set at +140 on Jan. 16.
“The goal is to make the ‘Yes’ side attractive to bettors,” Shreeve explained. “Until we’re forced by the numbers, we want to keep the odds as high as we can.”
ESPN BET opened its market at +120 in early January, and it has been very popular with bettors. Despite being available for a shorter time, this market has already received more bets and money than a special bet on Shohei Ohtani hitting 50-plus home runs and 50-plus stolen bases in the 2024 MLB season.
If Ovechkin can continue his strong performance, sportsbooks will focus on other related special markets, such as which team he will break the record against and how he will do it. FanDuel said that although the market for how he will break the record isn’t very popular, most bettors are picking him to do it on the power play, where Ovechkin is already the all-time leader with 317 goals.
The excitement around Ovechkin’s chase for the record isn’t just limited to special future bets. Whenever the Capitals play, his anytime goal-scorer bets have become very popular. On Jan. 7, Ovechkin was the most-bet anytime goal scorer in the league, with double the number of wagers compared to the next closest player. This is one of eight occasions this season where he has been the most popular anytime goal scorer at ESPN BET.
BetMGM reported that Ovechkin has received the second most total bets for anytime goal scorer in the NHL, and he has been the most-bet for the market in every Capitals game since returning from injury.
Shreeve emphasized that Caesars tries to offer appealing live odds for this market as much as possible since bettors seem to always be interested when they have the chance.
“We’re obviously trying to make a profit, but it’s great when he scores,” Shreeve said. “It keeps the momentum going, keeps customers happy, and they keep coming back. If he can keep up a good pace, it’s a win-win for everyone.”
