Lamar Jackson handed the ball off to Derrick Henry, then slid out to the left as if he still had it. A couple of linebackers moved into Jackson’s path, leaving the middle open for Henry to run through for a 44-yard touchdown.
This is the problem Jackson and Henry create for defenders. First, they have to figure out who has the ball, and if defenders are out of position, either Baltimore star can make them pay.
Jackson threw for two touchdowns in a perfect first half, Henry scored twice while leading Baltimore’s powerful running game, and the Ravens defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers 28-14 on Saturday night to move on to the second round of the AFC playoffs.
Jackson and Henry had the Steelers chasing them all night as Baltimore outrushed Pittsburgh 299-29. This was the most rushing yards allowed by Pittsburgh in a playoff game, breaking the previous record of 232 set by the Oakland Raiders 51 years ago.
“My dad’s proud. Jack Harbaugh’s proud right now. He likes to pound the rock,” said Ravens coach John Harbaugh. “Derrick Henry was running hard, physical. Lamar started it off. Lamar carried the ball at different times in the first drive or two.”
The Ravens now move on to face either Buffalo or Houston after jumping out to a 21-0 halftime lead and holding off their AFC North rivals. Baltimore had a 19-2 advantage in first downs in the first half, when they scored touchdown drives of 95, 85, and 90 yards.
Henry ran for 186 yards.
Jackson, the two-time MVP still looking for a postseason breakthrough, showed from the start that he was going to make Pittsburgh (10-8) defend both his arm and his legs. He kept the chains moving, and the Ravens (13-5) were happy to advance the ball steadily against a Steelers team that relied heavily this season on forcing turnovers.
Derrick Henry runs in the 2nd half
“They understood how to win a football game like this,” Harbaugh said. “It’s one thing to know it, it’s another thing to execute it and do it, and they did it.”
Pittsburgh’s season ends with five straight losses, two of them to Baltimore. The ending was a familiar one for the Steelers, who have now lost six consecutive playoff games. The last three times they’ve been in the postseason, they’ve fallen on the road in games that showed the gap between Pittsburgh and the top contenders in the conference.
“They were the better group today. That was obvious,” Steelers coach Mike Tomlin said. “The X factor was Lamar’s unique talents. It seems like every time we got him behind the sticks, he made up for it.”
The Ravens had 10 touchdown drives of at least 90 yards during the regular season, the most by a team since at least 2000. They began their first possession at their own 5-yard line and drove 13 plays for a touchdown.
The Steelers have recently made a habit of winning close games against the Ravens, often taking advantage of Baltimore mistakes. The Ravens avoided that on Saturday, taking few major risks.
They got creative on their first drive, lining Henry up for a direct snap from the center while Jackson came across and faked a sweep. Henry kept the ball for a 34-yard gain. Jackson capped the drive with a 15-yard touchdown pass to Rashod Bateman, who was Baltimore’s top healthy receiver with Zay Flowers (knee) out.
Jackson went 16 of 21 for 175 yards and rushed for 81 yards.
Henry made it 14-0 with an 8-yard run with 4:09 left in the half, and the Ravens didn’t attempt a single pass on that 13-play drive. After a Pittsburgh punt, the Steelers called a timeout on third-and-2 from the Baltimore 18, hoping to get the ball back. But the Ravens converted and quickly moved into position to score.
On second down from the Pittsburgh 5 with 11 seconds left, Jackson nearly used up all the remaining time scrambling, but he finally threw the ball to an open Justice Hill, who ran into the end zone with 2 seconds remaining.
Baltimore Ravens players celebrates in the 2nd half
“I just think in his head, he knows what 11 seconds is,” Harbaugh said. “The clock was going a little faster for me in my mind. I’m like, ‘Throw that thing away.’ He threw it, it was a touchdown. All I can say is ‘wow’ — I think I said ‘wow’ about seven times right there.”
The Steelers drove 98 yards for a touchdown on their first second-half possession, with Russell Wilson throwing a 30-yard touchdown pass to Van Jefferson. Baltimore quickly answered when Henry broke free up the middle for his 44-yard TD.
Wilson responded with a 36-yard touchdown pass to George Pickens in the third quarter, but that was the last score of the game. Wilson went 20 of 29 for 270 yards on a night when neither team turned the ball over.
Big day
This was the second-highest rushing total of Henry’s postseason career — the only bigger one came in the same stadium five years earlier to the day. On Jan. 11, 2020, as a member of the Tennessee Titans, he ran for 195 yards in a win over Jackson and the top-seeded Ravens.
“I can just hand the ball off — 10 yards, 20 yards, 30 yards and I’m just chilling,” Jackson said. “When they’re attacking him and I go, I’m fresh. Just making my job a lot easier. We just piggy-back off of each other.”
Even if you feel like taking a break from football, the league won’t let you rest for long after the Super Bowl. The new year kicks off on March 12, bringing the free-agent signing period that will keep us busy until the draft. And with so many players available, where some of them end up could change the future of entire teams.
Take Miami’s passing game, for instance.
Changing your social media picture to match a wide receiver who forced his way out of town is a bold move. But after a disappointing season, I can understand Tyreek Hill’s frustration.
Last year, Hill was on track for 2,000 yards until an ankle injury hurt his regular season and limited him in the playoffs. He finished third in targets among all wide receivers and had his fourth consecutive 1,000-yard season. But in 2024, Hill had one of his worst seasons as a pro.
Receiving Yards: 959, 3rd-fewest Yards per Route Run: 1.75, Career-low Receiving Touchdowns: 6, Tied for Career-low
Some of this drop-off can be attributed to quarterback play. Tua Tagovailoa missed six games, and the Dolphins scored 20 points or fewer in every game without him. But even after Tua returned, Hill barely stood out as the top wide receiver.
Jonnu Smith (20.4% target share) and De’Von Achane (17.9%) stepped up in the receiving roles Miami needed, while their running game struggled (ranked 31st in EPA per Rush). Even worse for fantasy, both had more red-zone catches than Hill. Hill’s situation is a good example of how we need to adjust our expectations.
To be fair, Hill’s agent has been working to manage the situation. The star wide receiver is just frustrated. But at the end of the day, he remains committed to Miami. This comes after a recording of Hill “quitting” during a game circulated on social media. At least Hill’s camp and the Dolphins are trying to repair the relationship. Still, there’s some uncertainty as we head into the offseason.
Tee Higgins (NFL)
Fantasy production depends on both talent and situation. In 2023, Hill had both, with 3.82 yards per route run on 167 targets. He delivered in both real life and fantasy. But as Hill gets older, any potential new situation should be carefully considered before placing him as an early-round pick.
Now, let’s look at another receiver in a similar situation.
If Tee Higgins ends up leaving the Bengals, he’ll leave Paycor Stadium as a star. Despite missing five games, Higgins set career highs in targets (9.1), receptions (6.1), and total touchdowns (10). But Higgins wasn’t just the third option by chance. Joe Burrow noticed Higgins’ absences during the season.
Passing Yards per Game: 267.0 (without Higgins), 298.6 (with Higgins) EPA per Dropback: 0.07, 0.19 Yards per Drive: 33.8, 35.1
Luckily for the Bengals, Burrow has made it clear he wants to keep the core group together. Higgins now shares an agent with Ja’Marr Chase, and everything seems to be falling into place for Cincinnati to make another championship run. However, teams in need of a wide receiver, like the Patriots or Commanders, might have seen Week 18 as the last time we’ll see this elite trio.
On the other hand, I think this running back in L.A. will stick around for at least another year.
Who else doubted J.K. Dobbins’ potential after yet another season-ending injury?
I did, too.
I thought the Chargers would focus on their running game with coach John Harbaugh bringing in Greg Roman as offensive coordinator. This kind of system would naturally lead to a lot of carries for someone, so I passed on Dobbins, who had torn his Achilles tendon the year before, and instead picked Kimani Vidal and Gus Edwards.
Dobbins made me regret that decision.
Explosive Rush Rate: 9.2%, 9th Forced Missed Tackle Rate: 17.2%, 23rd Adjusted Yards After Contact per Attempt: 3.2, 25th
Dobbins’ explosive rush rate is impressive. In 2022, he posted a 19.6% forced missed tackle rate for the Ravens. So, it wasn’t surprising to see him keep his balance and gain yards after contact. However, his breakaway speed seemed to be slowing down while he was still in Baltimore.
Despite that, he had more runs of 10 yards or more than Bijan Robinson (2.1 to 2.0) on a per-game basis. Even after spending time on injured reserve, Dobbins still set new milestones for rushing yards and ranked as a top-five pass-blocking running back, according to PFF.
Drafting RBs in 2025
If you focused on running backs early in your draft, you were probably the envy of your league. Running backs really mattered this year, with two players rushing for more than 1,900 yards, marking the only time in NFL history this has happened. Still, it’s important to understand why before we head into the 2025 draft. Ted Nguyen from The Athletic pointed out some reasons for this change, and a few of his points are worth noting:
Ja’Marr Chase runs with the ball in the 2nd half
From 2016 to 2021, defenses used nickel (five defensive backs) 57% of the time. From 2022 to 2024, that number went up to 64%.
We don’t have data on two-high safety usage before 2019, but it’s been rising each year and is at its highest this season. This shift in defensive schemes is largely due to the popularity of Vic Fangio’s and Mike Macdonald’s systems.
It’s great to see good teams adjust to defensive trends, and it’s good when coaches find ways to counteract them. But it’s not like this trend has taken over the league.
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Running backs, in general, averaged 21.7 carries per game this year, which is about the same as last year (21.6) and the year before (21.8). There hasn’t been much change in the number of attempts, but what has changed is how effective those runs are. The EPA (Expected Points Added) per rush has improved to -0.06, up from -0.10 in the previous three years.
The explosive rush rate has also gone up from 6.8% to 7.6%. For some teams, these adjustments worked really well. As a result, early mock drafts are predicting that we’ll see a similar level of rushing performance next year, with 10 running backs being picked in the first two rounds. However, I’m still not fully ready to invest in the position with my high picks.
Number of top-24 RBs with a non-early-round ADP: 7 (2024), 9 (2023), 7 (2022) Number of top-24 RBs with at least a 10.0% target share: 12, 13, 10 Number of top-24 RBs with at least 50.0% of their team’s carries: 17, 12, 15
The last few seasons have shown that we can find good value later in the draft. Sometimes a split backfield turns into one lead rusher. As the season progresses, we often see a coach decide to make one player the starter. Finding out who will get the most touches in any offense has been key to filling your RB spots in fantasy. So, instead of following the crowd, compare each running back to players at other positions before drafting them.
Bounceback Offenses to Target
I usually take a top-down approach when drafting players. For example, I called the Lions “America’s team” in Week 7, and they ended the year as the highest-scoring team in the league (32.4 points per game). More points mean more fantasy options. So, I tend to favor players on better teams.
But I know that things change from year to year. If I had to pick a team that could improve in 2025, I’d start with the Panthers.
Saquon Barkley celebrates after scoring
If Saquon Barkley’s “Backwards Hurdle” was the top moment of the season, Bryce Young’s “no-look touchdown” celebration would be a close second. Think about where Young was at the start of the year. He didn’t even throw a touchdown for the Panthers until the end of October. But after the Panthers gave him the starting job back, it was like he was a different player, almost like he had returned from college.
Pressure-to-Sack Ratio (since Week 8): 5th Completion Percentage Over Expected: 13th EPA per Dropback: 15th
Importantly, Young and head coach Dave Canales have shown that their offense can work. Since Young returned as the starter, the Panthers are scoring 23.1 points per game, just behind the Vikings.
So, if we have more confidence in the passing game, we can start looking at their skill players for our 2025 fantasy rosters. As Adam Thielen thinks about retirement, Jalen Coker could be a sleeper pick for 2025. Coker was the only other Panthers receiver with a slot snap rate above 50%, ranked second in explosive play rate, and would take over Thielen’s role if Thielen retires.
Both Coker and Young should be late-round favorites, but the Falcons also made a case for fantasy managers to keep an eye on them this offseason.
The late-season quarterback change meant the Falcons missed the playoffs, but I don’t blame Michael Penix Jr. for that. He threw another unlucky interception, which led to Young’s game-tying touchdown just a few plays later. However, Atlanta ran more plays (77) and had the most dropbacks (40) in a game since Week 13. This is a small sample, but the takeaway for 2025 is simple: the Falcons might be a team to watch.
Bonus: Drake London Should Be in the Top 12 WR Discussion
Drake London doesn’t need to be a WR5 or have first-round value. However, averaging 15.5 targets per game is impressive. Reaching 3.81 yards per route run (YPRR) is also something we should notice. While many will focus on Bijan Robinson as the top player benefiting from Penix’s first full season as the starter, the value on London in the draft will be the smarter move this summer.
2024 Pro Bowl Games Highlight Star Players and Expanded Events as NFL Announces Rosters
I don’t know about you, but I’m exhausted.
It’s been a long season. Think about all the storylines we saw unfold in the past few months. Cincinnati started the season with a tough loss and ended it with Joe Burrow being talked about for MVP. Kevin O’Connell helped revive Sam Darnold’s career.
Saquon Barkley almost made history with an incredible hurdle. And throughout it all, we kept up with all the data to stay on top of our fantasy football leagues. Taking a break now seems like a good idea.
But before we rest, let’s take one last look at the season.
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The playoffs, coaching changes, and the draft will keep throwing news our way as we start looking toward the next season. It’s easy to get caught up in the excitement of new changes.
The early offseason market will be influenced by what’s happened recently. Still, these major storylines from 2024 should help you prepare for another season of drafting.
The 2024 WR class will be exciting in Year 2
There’s no doubt the latest group of receivers made a big impact. Malik Nabers is already setting records for the Giants. Brian Thomas Jr. averaged over 100 yards per game in his final five games and will make the Jaguars’ head coach job even more appealing. But the 2024 class wasn’t just about the big names.
There are a few other players I’ll want on my teams for 2025, but let’s start with two guys we’ll be watching during the NFL playoffs.
Joe Burrow looks topass in the 1st half
Jalen McMillan was the last of the highly-ranked Washington Huskies receivers to be picked, and his role next to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin limited his early-season upside.
But when McMillan came back from a hamstring injury in Week 12, he played 70.0% of the routes. He was targeted 20.0% or more by Baker Mayfield in three of his last five games. His five-game streak of scoring touchdowns will definitely stay in everyone’s mind for the summer.
Jalen McMillan
WR – TB – #15
2024 – 2025 season
461 Yards
35.5 Yards per Game
58 Targets
37 Receptions
8 Touchdowns
However, keep in mind that Mike Evans will be 32 by the start of the season (or might retire if he chooses). Chris Godwin will be a free agent after recovering from a major injury. One or both could be gone by training camp. The Bucs are likely to make some moves at receiver, but McMillan should still be a key part of their offense next year, especially after leading the team in YAC per reception (3.1) while mostly playing on the outside.
I can make the same argument for Xavier Worthy.
Sure, scoring touchdowns in back-to-back games makes any player worth watching, but the Chiefs add another layer of interest. Their 2.3 offensive touchdowns per week in their final six games were below the league average (2.5). The Steelers were the third team to push Patrick Mahomes into throwing for more than 300 yards. And with Mahomes’ ankle injury in mind, it was easy to overlook changes in Worthy’s workload.
Target Share: 11.0% (Weeks 9-12), 22.2% (Weeks 13-17)
Targets per Route Run: 12.0%, 24.9%
Air Yards per Target: 14.2, 6.0
Andy Reid speaks at the news conference
Leave it to Andy Reid to find the best way to use someone like Worthy. Instead of keeping him on the boundary (where he could drift out of bounds in critical moments), his snaps from the slot increased in the last month. Against the Texans, he ran 56.4% of his routes from inside.
This adjustment has lowered his average depth of target, but it’s also given him a chance to show off his speed after the catch. He picked up 8.1 yards after the catch per reception against Houston, which is part of why his back-to-back 11-target games don’t seem like a fluke. The Chiefs’ receiving corps will be worth watching this offseason.
Xavier Worthy
WR – KC – #1
2024 – 2025 season
638 Yards
37.5 Yards per Game
98 Targets
59 Receptions
6 Touchdowns
Rumors about Travis Kelce retiring aside, Marquise Brown and DeAndre Hopkins will be free agents after this season. We likely won’t see much of Rashee Rice until late summer. Worthy’s growth and stronger connection with Mahomes are the key takeaways from his rookie year. Even if most of the supporting players return for another season, Worthy will have the momentum and experience to help you through another regular season.
As we reach the middle of the 2024-25 NBA season, it’s a good moment to review the current state of the league.
Halfway through the season, we can better assess which players have performed better or worse than expected. We reached out to coaches, scouts, and executives across the NBA to hear their opinions, and they quickly pointed out players who have both impressed and disappointed.
Here’s a summary of the players who made the list, why they stood out, what the surprising Detroit Pistons might do at the trade deadline, an update on a promising rookie in Philadelphia, and what lies ahead for Bradley Beal and the Phoenix Suns as we check in on the NBA.
Surprising Players of the First Half
Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks
Towns, after being traded to New York right before training camp, has exceeded expectations. He’s averaging over 25 points on a career-high 55% shooting and is leading the league in rebounds, contributing to the Knicks’ No. 3-ranked offense. His absence from the Timberwolves has also been noticeable. “He’s been everything the Knicks were hoping for and more,” one scout said. “That’s how to win a trade.”
Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons
Cunningham, in his fourth season, faced many questions about his potential, even after signing a max rookie extension with Detroit. He’s been excellent, setting career highs across the board and leading the Pistons, who are above .500, and just a half-game out of sixth place in the East. “When the Pistons gave him the max, there were quite a few people who thought it was a risk,” one GM said. “And he’s been very strong.”
Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
Even with all the hype around him, Wembanyama continues to impress. He’s leading the league in blocks and has the Spurs in the mix for a play-in spot in the competitive Western Conference. “What he’s doing is just ridiculous,” said one executive. “If he gets that roster to the playoffs, he should get MVP votes. And he might.”
Victor Wembanyama reacts in the 2nd half
Dyson Daniels, Atlanta Hawks
Daniels is playing a career-high 33 minutes per game for Atlanta, after being on the bench for most of the past two seasons with New Orleans. His offensive confidence has grown with more shooting around him, even though his shooting still needs improvement. He’s also leading the league in steals with 3.1 per game and has 90 more deflections than De’Aaron Fox, who ranks second. “He’s in a much better fit than he was in New Orleans,” said a scout. “He never got the opportunity to play there, and the fit was always bad. Now, he’s playing with much more confidence.”
Lonzo Ball, Chicago Bulls
It’s surprising that Ball is even playing at all after missing 2½ years due to knee issues. Even more surprising is that he’s been contributing to winning right away, just like he did before his injuries. Though his numbers aren’t impressive, Chicago is 10 points per 100 possessions better with Ball on the court. “When he plays, he’s very impactful,” an executive said. “Someone is going to get him next year and look smart.”
James Harden and Norman Powell, LA Clippers
After losing Paul George in free agency and seeing Kawhi Leonard miss almost the entire season due to injuries, the Clippers being 20-17 is a surprise. Their solid performance can be attributed to the strong play of their starting backcourt: Harden and Powell.
Harden is averaging 21.4 points and 7.9 assists. While his shooting percentages are down, he’s been praised for helping keep the Clippers competitive. “They’re pretty good, and he’s the reason,” said a scout. “I know he’s a household name. But he was trending to a pretty bad place, and that’s not true anymore.”
Powell, meanwhile, has a strong chance to win the NBA’s Most Improved Player Award this season, as he’s averaging 23.4 points on 48.7% shooting, which is a career-high.
“He’s gotten more minutes and shots,” said an executive, “but no one would’ve believed he’d take this leap at this stage of his career.”
Cameron Johnson, Brooklyn Nets
As Brooklyn begins its rebuild, Johnson is becoming one of the key players to watch in the trade market. His contract is attractive, especially considering the salary cap rules this season. He’s also setting career highs in points (19.6), 3-point shooting (44%), and assists (3.0).
“He has good synergy with [coach Jordi Fernandez] and he’s really turned him loose,” said a scout.
“He’s playing with no pressure on a bad team,” said an executive. “But he’s not young, and I wasn’t sure he’d be able to fully take advantage of this opportunity.”
Seven Disappointing Players of the First Half
Paul George and Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers
The season for both George and Embiid has been disappointing. Embiid’s preseason injuries have carried into the regular season, limiting him to 13 games so far. George has struggled with his knee injuries and is having one of his worst seasons in a decade. Tyrese Maxey, under increased pressure, has also seen a drop in his performance.
Paul George warms up before the game
Despite a tough start with a 3-14 record, the Sixers are now 15-20 and just two games out of the play-in spot. Still, George and Embiid have been the main focus of the disappointment. “Philly probably knew there was a chance they’d have a rough PG year on this contract but they probably thought it would be year four — not year one,” said an executive.
“Embiid has a lot of bad injury luck and plays through pain, so you feel sympathy for him for that. But sometimes he acts so entitled that it goes away,” another executive added.
Kyle Kuzma, Washington Wizards
A year ago, the rebuilding Wizards could’ve traded Kuzma at the deadline, but after consulting with him, they decided against it. Now, it might be tough for the Wizards to find another chance to deal him. Kuzma, who will turn 30 this summer, is averaging just 15.6 points and shooting a disappointing 26.6% from 3-point range on one of the league’s worst teams.
“I know he’s dealt with an injury,” said a scout, “but I think this has been the most disappointing season of his career.”
Terry Rozier and Jaime Jaquez Jr., Miami Heat
The Heat have struggled this season partly due to the poor performances of Rozier and Jaquez.
Rozier, acquired a year ago in a deal involving a first-round pick and Kyle Lowry, was expected to be a multi-year difference-maker. However, this season, Rozier has lost his starting spot and is shooting his lowest percentages since his early years in Boston.
“He’s nowhere near the player the Heat thought they traded for,” said an executive. “His poor play has [played] a bigger role than gets noticed for their season.”
Jaquez, meanwhile, has not played like the first-team All-Rookie selection he was last year.
“Maybe a sophomore slump, maybe he played a bit over his head as a rookie,” said a scout. “He’s backslid compared to where he was last year.”
Scoot Henderson, Portland Trail Blazers
Henderson, who was picked third in last year’s draft, was expected to make a big improvement in his second season, as many young guards do after getting used to the NBA.
However, his minutes have gone down, and his stats have either stayed the same or dropped. This is concerning for a team like Portland, which is trying to build a strong future.
“I thought it was a guarantee he’d play much better this year than last and show some things,” an executive said. “I’ve been wrong. His numbers are down, and the eye [test] confirms it.”
Lauri Markkanen, Utah Jazz
The Jazz are working hard to make sure they get a top pick in this year’s draft, but they have been helped by the fact that their best player, Markkanen, has not been performing as well.
After being an All-Star in 2023 and playing some of the best basketball of his career, Markkanen’s points, rebounds, and shooting percentages have all dropped this season.
“He’s probably not super motivated because the team is tanking,” an executive said. “But his numbers and his overall level are down across the board.”
What’s next for Bradley Beal and the Suns?
Bontemps: Two important details were mentioned in Windhorst’s story about Beal’s situation. First, Beal and his agent Mark Bartelstein have not discussed Beal waiving his no-trade clause.
Second, Bartelstein made it clear that Beal will never give up the no-trade clause, and it will stay with him until his contract ends. He didn’t rule out Beal approving a trade, but the clause would still apply.
Phoenix Suns- Kevin Durant
Despite Phoenix’s current issues, Beal’s no-trade clause is a big problem. He’s owed $110 million over the next two years, and without the no-trade clause, his contract could be easier to move.
“He’s a bad contract,” the executive said, “but not immovable, if the team that’s getting him knows they could also trade him later.”
However, for that to happen, Beal would need to give up the clause, but he has no reason to do so.
This situation makes it hard to see a trade for Beal happening anytime soon.
Windhorst: Beal stayed in Washington through some tough seasons, then had long talks with teams when he was allowing a trade to Phoenix. His time with the Suns hasn’t gone well, but Beal is not someone who looks to move around.
Even if there was strong demand for Beal, which many league executives think there isn’t (mainly because of his contract), Beal would want to be comfortable with where he was going. And with the season already in progress, the trade process would be complicated. The more you know about Beal and his situation, the more you understand why a trade is so difficult.
What are the surging Pistons up to?
The Pistons moved to a winning record of 19-18 after their victory in Brooklyn on Wednesday night. This marked their 10th road win of the season, which they had only achieved once in the past six years.
Around the league, other teams have been looking at Detroit’s $14 million in salary cap space and $44 million under the luxury tax as something that could be used at the trade deadline. With trades becoming more complicated now, the Pistons had left that space open to possibly acquire draft picks by taking on unwanted salaries to help other teams with larger deals.
However, after seeing a big improvement under their new coach J.B. Bickerstaff (Detroit had a 14-68 record last season, including a record-tying 28 straight losses), the Pistons may not be as eager to use that cap space.
After winning eight of their last nine games, sources say the Pistons are rethinking their strategy and may hold on to their cap space more carefully as they look to upgrade their roster and keep flexibility for next season.
Two more reasons Cavs-Thunder was the game of the year
The Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Cleveland Cavaliers game on Wednesday night, which many considered the best of the regular season, lived up to all the excitement.
One key reason the game was so great was that both teams had two full days to prepare for it. The Cavaliers and Thunder last played on Sunday, which gave them the opportunity to practice and focus on the game, something teams usually can’t do in the busy schedule of an 82-game season.
The result was a thrilling game that showed off the best aspects of NBA basketball.
“It was great,” said Cavaliers coach Kenny Atkinson after Cleveland’s 129-122 win. “Great for the league.”
“We all enjoy competition. But to see the talent out there tonight, these were the heavy hitters of our league. The quality of the basketball was super high.”
Chargers Eye Playoff Push Amid Rising Power Rankings and Key Bengals Showdown
The wild-card round for the 2024 NFL playoffs features six exciting matchups, and we have all the key details you need to know for the weekend.
Our NFL Nation reporters highlight the key aspects of each game, and analyst Seth Walder offers bold predictions for every matchup. NFL expert Matt Bowen points out important matchups to watch, while staff writer Kevin Seifert discusses the officiating.
The ESPN Research team shares significant stats and betting insights for each game, and our Football Power Index (FPI) provides game projections. Finally, three analysts—Kalyn Kahler, Eric Moody, and Walder—give their final score predictions for each game.
Everything you need for a packed weekend of NFL playoff action is here. Let’s look at the full wild-card slate, including an AFC North showdown between the Steelers and Ravens and the Packers visiting Philadelphia.
Chargers storyline to watch: Quarterback Justin Herbert has only three interceptions this season, the fewest in the NFL, while the Texans’ defense has the second-most interceptions (19). This will be the third playoff game since 2000 between an offense with the fewest interceptions and a defense with the most or second-most interceptions. Can Houston force Herbert into mistakes? – Kris Rhim
Texans storyline to watch: Both teams have strong defenses that pressure quarterbacks. The Texans allow the lowest completion percentage in the league (58.8%), and the Chargers are ranked 11th in that category (65%). Both quarterbacks, C.J. Stroud and Herbert, are vulnerable to being pressured, as they rank among the top four in unblocked pressures. The team that can generate consistent pressure will likely win. – DJ Bien-Aime
Stat to know: A win on Saturday would make Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh the second in NFL history to win a playoff game in his first season with two different teams, joining Pete Carroll, who did it with the Seahawks in 2010 and the Patriots in 1997. – ESPN Research
Bold prediction: The Texans won’t score a touchdown. Since Week 9, after losing Stefon Diggs to a torn ACL, the Texans have ranked 27th in offensive EPA per play. With another key loss in receiver Tank Dell, they’ll struggle against the No. 1 scoring defense. – Walder
Matchup X factor: Chargers safety Derwin James Jr. He led all defensive backs with 5.5 sacks and 15 pressures. He’s a key disruptor and can impact the Texans’ run game by blitzing early. – Bowen
Injuries: Chargers | Texans
Betting nugget: Eleven of the Texans’ 17 games this season went under the total, tied with the Giants for the highest under rate in the NFL. Houston also saw seven unders in eight home games. – ESPN Research
Officiating nugget: Referee Land Clark’s crew threw the fifth-fewest flags in the NFL (13.8 per game) and was particularly strict about defensive holding (only five, the fewest in the league). This should benefit the Chargers, who had the second-most defensive holding penalties. – Seifert
Kahler’s pick: Chargers 28, Texans 20 Moody’s pick: Chargers 27, Texans 23 Walder’s pick: Chargers 20, Texans 9 FPI prediction: LAC, 52.8% (by an average of 0.9 points)
(6) Steelers at (3) Ravens
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET | Prime Video | ESPN BET: BAL -9.5 (43.5 O/U)
Steelers storyline to watch: The Steelers’ offense has struggled in a four-game losing streak, averaging just 14 points and 258.8 yards per game. Offensive coordinator Arthur Smith may get creative to help, possibly using more of quarterback Justin Fields, who’s been sidelined since Week 15 with an abdominal injury. Fields is healthy and ready to contribute. The Steelers’ offense needs to improve, especially on first downs, where they rank last in yards and success rate. – Brooke Pryor
Baltimore Ravens players celebrates after scoring
Ravens storyline to watch: Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is trying to overcome his playoff struggles, facing a Steelers defense that has been weakening. Jackson is 2-4 in the postseason with six interceptions and three lost fumbles. He has struggled particularly against the Steelers, but their defense has allowed 258.5 passing yards per game in the past four games. – Jamison Hensley
Stat to know: Steelers running back Najee Harris averages 4.0 yards per rush, ranking 35th out of 44 qualified players. His minus-0.01 yards per rush gained over expectation ranks 31st in the NFL. – ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Ravens tight end Mark Andrews will catch six or more passes, matching or exceeding his season high. His route participation has increased, and he’s been very effective in advanced metrics, with the highest open score among tight ends. – Walder
Matchup X factor: Ravens outside linebacker Kyle Van Noy. He’ll be used in twists and stunts to disrupt the pocket. With 12.5 sacks and 45 pressures this season, he’s a perfect fit for the Ravens’ defensive scheme. – Bowen
Injuries: Steelers | Ravens
Betting nugget: Six of the past seven Steelers road games have gone over the total, and five of the Ravens’ last six home games have also gone over. – ESPN Research
Officiating nugget: Referee Alex Kemp’s crew threw the most flags for offensive holding (59) in the NFL. The Ravens were flagged for the third-most offensive holding penalties in the regular season (29), while the Steelers had 18. – Seifert
Kahler’s pick: Ravens 30, Steelers 24 Moody’s pick: Ravens 28, Steelers 19 Walder’s pick: Ravens 27, Steelers 20 FPI prediction: BAL, 72.2% (by an average of 9.0 points)
Broncos storyline to watch: The Broncos are back in the playoffs after an eight-year drought, and they face one of the AFC’s top quarterbacks. This season, the Broncos struggled against quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, and Justin Herbert, failing to beat them. Now, they will try to stop Josh Allen, who has 12 rushing touchdowns, matching the Broncos’ team total. The Broncos will need to limit Allen’s “second act” plays—his ability to make big plays after his initial reads are covered. – Jeff Legwold
Bills storyline to watch: The Bills have done well in the wild-card round, with a 4-1 record when Josh Allen starts. The main concern for them heading into the playoffs is their defense’s ability to get off the field. They rank among the worst in third-down conversion percentage allowed (43.8%) and have had trouble sacking the quarterback (39 sacks, tied for 18th). On the other hand, rookie quarterback Bo Nix has been tough to sack, getting only 24 sacks, tied for the third fewest in the league. Bills coach Sean McDermott has praised Nix’s poise and ability to extend plays. – Alaina Getzenberg
Stat to know: The Bills turned the ball over only eight times this season, tied for the fewest since turnovers were first tracked in 1933. – ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Josh Allen will rush for at least five first downs or score a touchdown with his legs. While Broncos cornerback Pat Surtain II can shut down receivers, Allen has other ways to hurt a defense. Despite the Broncos allowing the third-fewest rushing yards per game (96.4), expect Allen to scramble often on Sunday. – Walder
Denver Broncos players celebrate after an interception in the 2nd half
Matchup X factor: Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton. The Broncos can create open spaces for Sutton to run deep routes against a Bills defense that plays zone coverage on over 68% of dropbacks. Sutton had 32 receptions of 15 or more yards this season, and the Broncos will need similar plays to upset the Bills. – Bowen
Injuries: Broncos | Bills
Betting nugget: In the past 10 seasons, rookie quarterbacks are 0-5 outright and 1-4 against the spread (ATS) in road playoff games. – ESPN Research
Officiating nugget: Referee Bill Vinovich’s crew threw the fewest flags in the NFL this season, averaging only 12.9 per game. This benefits both teams, as the Bills (18th) and Broncos (21st) were in the upper half of the NFL in penalties. – Seifert
Kahler’s pick: Bills 28, Broncos 21 Moody’s pick: Broncos 27, Bills 24 Walder’s pick: Bills 28, Broncos 17 FPI prediction: BUF, 68.1% (by an average of 7.1 points)
(7) Packers at (2) Eagles
Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: PHI -4.5 (45.5 O/U)
Packers storyline to watch: The Packers have their highest defensive ranking (fifth) since their Super Bowl win in 2010. However, they have struggled to contain Eagles running back Saquon Barkley, who has posted over 100 scrimmage yards and a touchdown in each of the last three games against them, including the 2024 season opener. – Rob Demovsky
Eagles storyline to watch: Quarterback Jalen Hurts continues to recover from a concussion and is expected to play unless something changes. The key question is whether the Eagles’ passing offense can find a rhythm, as Hurts hasn’t played since December 22. The Eagles have had slow starts this season, especially in the first quarter, where they failed to score 10 times. Their offense has improved in recent weeks, but it will face a challenge against a Packers team that has allowed just 19.9 points per game, the sixth-best in the NFL. – Tim McManus
Stat to know: The Packers scored more than 30 points in five of their final seven games, including five straight from Weeks 12 through 16. That streak is the second-longest in franchise history after a seven-game streak in 1963. – ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Eagles defensive tackle Jalen Carter will bat down a pass, and it will be intercepted. Carter has batted down six passes this season, the second-most in the NFL. He’ll face a relatively weak pass blocker in Packers guard Sean Rhyan, so expect him to disrupt one of Jordan Love’s throws on Sunday. – Walder
Matchup X factor: Packers linebacker Edgerrin Cooper. Cooper is good at tracking ball carriers on the edges and covering intermediate routes. If the Packers want to win in Philly, he will need to limit Barkley’s runs and clog the middle of the field in pass coverage. – Bowen
Injuries: Packers | Eagles
Betting nugget: The Eagles are 9-3 against the spread (ATS) in their last 12 games, including three straight home games. – ESPN Research
Officiating nugget: Referee Brad Allen’s crew threw the third-fewest flags per game (13.4), but they called 10 roughing the passer penalties, the second-most in the league. This is good news for both quarterbacks, as Hurts and Love benefited from a combined three roughing the passer calls during the regular season. – Seifert
Kahler’s pick: Eagles 34, Packers 28 Moody’s pick: Eagles 31, Packers 21 Walder’s pick: Eagles 24, Packers 21 FPI prediction: PHI, 51.2% (by an average of 0.4 points)
Commanders storyline to watch: Washington’s defense has improved since their Week 1 loss to Tampa Bay. After struggling early in the season, ranking 29th in points allowed per game (29.3), they ended the season ranked 12th in scoring defense (21.6 points per game) and fourth in total yards (316.1). However, they will face a challenge against the Buccaneers’ improved run game, led by rookie Bucky Irving, who has helped them rank second in rushing yards per game over the past seven weeks (183.3). Washington ranks 30th in run defense, allowing 137.5 rushing yards per game. – John Keim
Buccaneers Secure Overtime Win Over Panthers With Resilient Effort and Key Plays
Buccaneers storyline to watch: The Buccaneers have seen quarterback Jayden Daniels develop since their Week 1 win. Daniels rushed for two touchdowns in that game, but the Bucs now feel better equipped to contain him. Early in the season, they struggled to stop scrambling quarterbacks, giving up 5.0 yards per rush to QBs (22nd in the league). That number has improved to 3.2 yards per rush (third best). – Jenna Laine
Stat to know: This is the fourth instance of two teams meeting in the wild-card round after averaging more than 28 points per game in the regular season since the wild-card round was introduced in 1978. – ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Daniels will rush for 70 or more yards. Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles loves to blitz, but Daniels scrambles very well against the blitz. His rushing average increases from 7.2 yards per scramble to 10.7 yards against the blitz. – Walder
Matchup X factor: Buccaneers wide receiver Jalen McMillan. McMillan has been more involved in the offense recently, with at least one touchdown in each of the last five games. He provides a deep threat opposite Mike Evans and can take advantage of Washington’s weaker secondary. – Bowen
Injuries: Commanders | Buccaneers
Betting nugget: Four straight Buccaneers games have gone over the total. They are 12-5 on overs this season, including 11-3 in their last 14 games. – ESPN Research
Officiating nugget: Referee Craig Wrolstad’s crew threw the second-most flags per game (18), but they only called four roughing the passer penalties, which benefits both teams, as each committed six roughing the passer fouls during the regular season. – Seifert
Kahler’s pick: Commanders 33, Buccaneers 30 Moody’s pick: Commanders 34, Buccaneers 29 Walder’s pick: Commanders 31, Buccaneers 26 FPI prediction: TB, 58.3% (by an average of 3.3 points)
(5) Vikings at (4) Rams
Monday, 8 p.m. ET | ESPN/ABC/ESPN+ | ESPN BET: MIN -2.5 (47.5 O/U)
Location change: The NFL moved this game to Arizona, as announced on Thursday night. The decision was made for public safety reasons due to wildfires in Southern California. Originally set to be played at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California, it will now be held at Glendale’s State Farm Stadium, home of the Arizona Cardinals, at the same time on Monday.
Vikings storyline to watch: In their Week 8 matchup, the Rams surprised the Vikings by activating receiver Puka Nacua from injured reserve. Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores admitted that they weren’t prepared for Nacua’s involvement, which caused some scrambling. The Rams targeted Nacua three times on their first drive, and he ended the game with seven catches for 106 yards. As a result, the Rams scored a season-high 30 points. Flores acknowledged, “They are a very different team with Puka out there,” and promised to do a better job preparing for him this time. – Kevin Seifert
Rams storyline to watch: Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford had a Total QBR of 87.7 against the Vikings in Week 8, the highest of any starting quarterback against Minnesota this season, according to ESPN Research. He was pressured on only 8.8% of dropbacks in that game, the lowest pressure rate the Vikings’ defense allowed all year. Now, he enters the playoffs with the highest average passing yards per game in postseason history (307.9). – Sarah Barshop
Los Angeles Rams playes celebrate in the 2nd half
Stat to know: The Vikings’ Sam Darnold is trying to become the sixth quarterback since 1966 to win his first postseason start while playing for his fourth team or later. Of the previous five, three reached the Super Bowl that season. – ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Rams coach Sean McVay will try to kick a field goal in a situation where the ESPN Analytics model suggests he shouldn’t. This is expected to be a close game, and the decision to kick will cost the Rams, leading to a loss by three points or fewer. – Walder
Matchup X factor: Rams defensive tackle Braden Fiske. Fiske, a rookie, has the ability to affect the pocket with his pass rush. He recorded 8.5 sacks and 32 pressures during the regular season. He also has the skills to match up well against a Vikings offensive line that struggled against power plays on the interior. – Bowen
Injuries: Vikings | Rams
Betting nugget: The Vikings are 6-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last eight games. They are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as favorites. – ESPN Research
Officiating nugget: The Rams were the least penalized playoff team, with an average of 6.2 flags per game, ranking fifth in the NFL. They’ll be happy with referee John Hussey’s crew, which called the second-fewest penalties in the NFL (13.4 per game). This is especially good for the Rams, as the Vikings had the most penalties (8.3 per game) in the league. – Seifert
Kahler’s pick: Rams 28, Vikings 26 Moody’s pick: Rams 30, Vikings 26 Walder’s pick: Vikings 24, Rams 23 FPI prediction: MIN, 53.9% (by an average of 1.2 points)
A lot has changed since we last discussed potential rosters for the 2025 NBA All-Star Game in San Francisco, which was just over a month ago.
Injuries have taken some key players out of the mix for the Chase Center. Over the past six years, no player has been named an All-Star with fewer than 29 games played through January, except for New Orleans Pelicans forward Zion Williamson in 2023, who was voted a starter. No reserve has made it with fewer than 19 games missed before the end of January.
This history likely rules out Orlando Magic forward Franz Wagner, who was expected to be a first-time All-Star, but has been sidelined with an oblique strain after 25 games. A bigger question is Dallas Mavericks star Luka Doncic, an All-Star in every season since his rookie year. Doncic has only played 22 games and won’t be re-evaluated for a calf injury until the end of the month.
If Doncic isn’t voted a starter (he was third among Western Conference backcourt players in Thursday’s latest fan voting), he likely won’t make the roster as a reserve, opening up space for another player.
Fan voting returns from Thursday show that LaMelo Ball of the Charlotte Hornets is in a strong position to be voted a starter, leading all Eastern Conference backcourt players. With Ball missing 11 games so far and Charlotte holding a low 8-27 record, his best shot at the All-Star Game is as a starter.
Even though the rosters for the three teams in the All-Star mini-tournament will be drafted by the hosts of TNT’s “Inside the NBA,” here’s how the player pool is selected: two backcourt starters and three frontcourt starters from each conference, plus the same number of reserves and two wild-card selections regardless of position. We’ll also highlight which players might miss out.
Here are my predictions for all 24 spots, including superstar locks, a few first-time selections, and plenty of competition for the final wild cards.
East Starters Backcourt: Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers
Mitchell has been an All-Star for the last five seasons and seems certain to start, as the Cavaliers hold the NBA’s best record (32-4). He is second in fan voting and will be a top pick by the media.
Backcourt: LaMelo Ball, Charlotte Hornets
Ball’s situation is more complicated. His chance will depend on the media votes and how many other guards are chosen. If media votes go to Mitchell and Jalen Brunson, Ball might fall behind in player votes, which could impact his starter spot.
Frontcourt: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
Antetokounmpo leads all players in fan votes so far and is on track to be a team captain for the fourth time in his career.
Frontcourt: Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics
Tatum is expected to be a starter for the third year in a row.
Frontcourt: Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks
Towns is a likely starter due to the strength of the East’s frontcourt pool. He’s third in fan voting and has more than double the votes of the next highest player, Paolo Banchero, who has missed several games.
East Reserves Backcourt: Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks
If Brunson doesn’t start, he will likely be the first reserve picked by Eastern Conference coaches. The competition for guard spots is tough, but Brunson has made a strong case.
Backcourt: Trae Young, Atlanta Hawks
Young’s performance has improved in December and January, and his league-leading 12.2 assists per game, along with the Hawks’ run to the NBA Cup semifinals, will likely earn him a spot.
Trae Young and Gary Trent Jr. in the 1st half
Frontcourt: Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics
The Finals MVP might not be a starter, but he should be among the top frontcourt reserves in the East.
Frontcourt: Evan Mobley, Cleveland Cavaliers
Mobley has been crucial to Cleveland’s success, averaging a career-high 18.9 points per game and playing well on both ends. He’s a near-lock for a frontcourt reserve spot.
Frontcourt: Jarrett Allen, Cleveland Cavaliers
With Franz Wagner out, Allen has a good chance to make his second All-Star appearance. While not as critical offensively as Mobley, Allen provides strong defense and has improved his efficiency this season.
Wild card: Damian Lillard, Milwaukee Bucks
Lillard has been an All-Star six times and despite a rough patch in 2021-22, his current form and the Bucks’ success should get him through. He’s having a better offensive season this year and the Bucks are in good standing.
Wild card: Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons
There are several East guards who could compete for the last spot, but Cunningham is one of the top candidates. Other players like Garland, White, Haliburton, Maxey, and Herro also have strong cases for the final spot, with Herro leading the group in scoring efficiency.
I believe Haliburton has the most overlooked case. He was a starter last year, but he is still being compared to his strong performance in the first half of 2023-24 and falling short. However, Haliburton has some important stats that work in his favor. His best skill, not turning the ball over, often goes unnoticed in the box score. (For example, he’s averaging 2.5 fewer turnovers per game than Cunningham.) Haliburton has also played more minutes than anyone except for the Knicks players, which helps his value in various metrics. If Indiana can move ahead of Milwaukee by the time coaches vote, it could boost Haliburton’s chances.
That said, I’m giving the last spot to Cunningham, who represents the Pistons’ rise into the East’s top nine after they had the worst record last season. Cunningham leads this group in assists per game (9.3, third in the league) and has greatly improved his 3-point shooting. Whether Cunningham makes it this season or not, there will certainly be All-Star appearances in his future.
West Starters Backcourt: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder
Gilgeous-Alexander is currently the favorite for MVP. He is leading all Western Conference backcourt players in fan voting and should also top the media votes.
Backcourt: Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
With Doncic injured, fan voting is likely to put Curry in the starting spot, especially with home-court support in the Bay Area. He holds a small lead over Doncic right now and is more likely to earn media votes. Anthony Edwards of the Minnesota Timberwolves, expected to finish second in media voting, is a distant fifth in fan voting and probably won’t make it as a starter.
Stephen Curry (NBA)
Frontcourt: Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets
Despite not being very interested in All-Star events, Jokic will likely be selected as a team captain. He leads all Western players in fan voting and is just ahead of Tatum for second place overall.
Frontcourt: Kevin Durant, Phoenix Suns
The competition for the other two Western frontcourt spots will get more interesting. Durant is just ahead of LeBron James by a little over 2,000 votes (out of nearly 2 million each), which could matter depending on how well Victor Wembanyama performs in media voting.
Frontcourt: LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers
James is ranked third in Western frontcourt fan voting, so he could be at risk of not starting for the first time since 2004, when he was a 19-year-old rookie. Wembanyama is likely to finish ahead of James in media voting, which could put the decision in the hands of players. For now, I expect James to be the third and final starter.
West Reserves Backcourt: Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves
Edwards is having the best offensive season of his career after a standout playoff run. He will likely be the first name Western Conference coaches pick for their backcourt selections.
Backcourt: Kyrie Irving, Dallas Mavericks
Irving’s bulging disk back injury could affect his first All-Star appearance with Dallas. He has played 30 games so far, and it’s uncertain whether he will be ready by the time coaches vote. However, I believe Irving’s strong performance, including a career-high 44% shooting from 3-point range, will earn him a spot on the roster, especially with better health than Doncic at this point.
Frontcourt: Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
Whether Wembanyama is voted a starter or not won’t change his chances of making the team. He’s set to make his first All-Star appearance after helping lead San Antonio into the thick of the Western Conference play-in race by improving on his already excellent rookie season.
Frontcourt: Anthony Davis, Los Angeles Lakers
With a crowded Western frontcourt, Davis ranks fifth in fan voting. This shows how competitive the group is, as only one other player (Alperen Sengun) is close in votes. Davis is still a clear choice for a reserve spot.
Anthony Davis takes the ball forwad
Frontcourt: Jaren Jackson Jr., Memphis Grizzlies
Coaches will likely reward Memphis, which has the fourth-best point differential in the NBA, by picking Jackson as an All-Star. With Ja Morant missing time due to injury, Jackson is now the obvious choice from the Grizzlies. He has improved his scoring since being chosen an All-Star reserve in 2023, though he’s not on track to repeat his Defensive Player of the Year performance.
Wild card: Alperen Sengun, Houston Rockets
Like Memphis, the Rockets have performed well enough that coaches may feel they need to pick a Houston player as a reserve. Sengun, who leads the team in rebounds and is second in scoring and assists, is the best candidate for his first All-Star appearance.
Wild card: Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder
In the last update, I had Devin Booker of the Phoenix Suns in this spot. Since then, Booker has missed five games, and the Suns have dropped to 12th in the West standings. De’Aaron Fox of the Sacramento Kings, another top guard candidate, is on a team tied for 10th, which makes it unlikely coaches will pick him after Mike Brown was fired.
This leaves Williams as the clear and deserving pick for the last spot. With Chet Holmgren out, Williams has been the unquestioned No. 2 player on the top team in the West, ranking second on the Thunder in scoring and assists while also defending multiple positions.
Welcome to the Fantasy Vibe Check, your space to talk about the ups, downs, and confusing moments from the NBA and fantasy basketball.
Check out who I’m feeling good about, and share your thoughts with me in the comments or @DanTitus about what’s got you excited or frustrated with fantasy basketball.
In today’s article, we will look at some important injury news from the past two weeks, discuss players who are out, and suggest possible backups to pick up for fantasy basketball.
Let’s get started.
Good vibes – players returning from injury
Zion Williamson – PF/C, New Orleans Pelicans
The often-injured former No. 1 pick will be back in action on Tuesday against the Timberwolves. Williamson has been working his way back from a hamstring injury over the past two months. On Monday, it was announced that he participated fully in practice and was upgraded to questionable for Tuesday’s game before being cleared to play.
Fantasy managers might want to consider trading Zion while there’s optimism around his return. He’s had trouble staying healthy, so it could be a good idea to move him before another injury happens.
Paolo Banchero – SF/PF, Orlando Magic
There hasn’t been an official return date for Banchero yet, but his injury status has been listed as “return to competition, reconditioning” since December 27. By this Friday, January 10, it will have been two weeks since this change, which seems like enough time for him to be ready to play again.
The Magic have been doing well without Banchero and Franz Wagner, so they might not rush his return, but it seems likely he’ll be back by Friday’s game against the Milwaukee Bucks.
If you’re looking to get Banchero, the chance to buy low is almost gone, so act fast before he’s back.
Bad vibes – players out with an injury
Kyrie Irving – PG/SG, Dallas Mavericks
Fantasy managers will be without Irving for at least 1-2 weeks as he deals with a bulging disc in his back. He missed Dallas’ last two games, and while it’s not great, at least we know when he might return. For now, fantasy managers should place him on the injured list and pick up players like Quentin Grimes, Spencer Dinwiddie, or Naji Marshall as replacements.
Kyrie Irving pauses on the court in the first half of the game
Jabari Smith – PF/C, Houston Rockets
Why are so many players getting hurt during pre-game activities? Fantasy managers were lucky when Joel Embiid twisted his ankle in Boston, but those with Smith weren’t as fortunate. He will miss 4-8 weeks with a fractured hand, which could end his season.
I had high expectations for Smith this year, but it’s been a rough third season for him. Even though he was drafted in the preseason as a top 80 player, he’s ranked 124th in 9-cat leagues and 144th in points leagues. With Smith out, Amen Thompson will start at small forward, which should boost his fantasy value.
Jaden Ivey – PG/SG, Detroit Pistons
The Pistons announced that Ivey had successful surgery to repair a broken fibula in his left leg and will be re-evaluated in four weeks. While he hasn’t been ruled out for the season, this injury is severe, and it seems unlikely he’ll return soon.
Ivey was having his best season so far, averaging nearly 18 points per game, 4 rebounds, and 4 assists. He was also shooting career-high percentages. With him out, Malik Beasley, Ausar Thompson, and Tim Hardaway Jr. will take on more responsibilities, but I prefer Thompson over Beasley and Hardaway in most formats.
Cam Thomas – SG/SF, Brooklyn Nets
Thomas strained his left hamstring in a game against the Bucks last Thursday, making the same injury worse that caused him to miss 13 games earlier in the season. He was having a breakout year but only lasted two games after coming back from his first hamstring injury. With the added issues of the Nets possibly tanking, it’s not the best situation for fantasy.
Thomas will be out for at least two weeks, so D’Angelo Russell should take on a bigger role when he’s back from his shin injury. If Russell isn’t ready, Keon Johnson and Tyrese Martin will fill in for now.
Jonathan Kuminga – SF/PF, Golden State Warriors
Kuminga’s injury couldn’t have come at a worse time. He sprained his ankle over the weekend and will be re-evaluated in three weeks. The Warriors were still deciding if they should extend his contract or use him as a trade chip for another high-value player. Let’s see how his injury affects their plans for the trade deadline.
Jonathan Kuminga (NBA)
Kuminga hasn’t been great for fantasy in 9-cat leagues this year, ranking outside the top 200. However, he’s improved recently, ranking 130th in 9-cat leagues over the last two weeks. I’d still hold on to him, even though his ownership has dropped by over 6% since Monday.
Daniel Gafford – C, Dallas Mavericks
It didn’t even take one night before another injury hit. Gafford left after just eight minutes in Monday’s loss to the Grizzlies with an ankle injury. Jason Kidd said Gafford will be out for some time.
Dereck Lively played a season-high 33 minutes, so fantasy managers with Lively are in a good position as he takes over the center role for now.
Waiting for more news on the following injured players:
Jalen Suggs – PG/SG, Orlando Magic – back
Trey Murphy III – SF/PF, New Orleans Pelicans – ankle
Desmond Bane – SG/SF, Memphis Grizzlies – ankle
Cameron Johnson – SF/PF, Brooklyn Nets – ankle
Happy New Year, basketball fans! With 2025 here, here are 10 bold predictions for the rest of the NBA season. I usually focus on realistic outcomes, but with injuries and trade rumors creating so much uncertainty, I’ve identified some situations that could greatly impact fantasy basketball. Let’s get started!
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will finish as the top player in 9-cat leagues
While Nikola Jokić and Victor Wembanyama will be tough competition, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been the best player in 9-cat leagues over the last month, putting up MVP-worthy stats.
In that stretch, SGA averaged 33.4 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 5.3 assists. He also added 2.3 three-pointers, 2.3 steals, 1.3 blocks, and 2.5 turnovers per game with shooting splits of 57/36/92. He’s excelling on both ends and will continue to compete with those two stars for the top spot for the rest of the season.
The Cavaliers will win 70 games
It might sound crazy, but the Cavaliers, currently 29-4, are on pace for 71 wins. Only two NBA teams have reached 70 wins in a season. If they maintain this pace, it will be great for fantasy owners of Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen.
The Warriors trade for Jimmy Butler
Although Miami doesn’t want to trade Jimmy Butler, his potential departure next season might force them to consider a deal. If the Warriors trade for him, he could be the missing piece to support Stephen Curry with his two-way skills and clutch performances.
Zach LaVine gets traded to the Lakers
LaVine’s contract has been a sticking point, but his solid production could lead to a trade. The Lakers are a good fit since he’d provide an extra scoring option to help LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Austin Reaves. A package with a first-round pick, Gabe Vincent, and Rui Hachimura could get the deal done.
Immanuel Quickley becomes a top-40 player in points leagues
Quickley had a rough start to the season with injuries but showed his potential with 21 points and 15 assists in his return. Expect him to shine, providing the scoring, assists, and steals that fantasy managers hoped for when they drafted him.
DeMar DeRozan (NBA)
The Kings move DeMar DeRozan to the bench
Although nothing has happened yet, there have been talks about moving DeRozan to a bench role. With Keegan Murray needing more opportunities to develop, the Kings might make this change to create more space for Murray’s growth while still utilizing DeRozan’s scoring off the bench.
Zion Williamson won’t play 20 games for the Pelicans this season
Williamson has been out for two months due to a hamstring injury. With his injury history and apparent disinterest in staying in New Orleans, it’s wise to sell him in fantasy leagues if you can.
James Harden finishes higher than Tyrese Haliburton in 9-cat leagues
As of Thursday, Haliburton ranks 26th while Harden is 41st. With Kawhi Leonard returning, Harden’s assist numbers and overall efficiency will improve. Meanwhile, Haliburton has struggled and may not return to the first-round value he had the past two seasons.
Cam Thomas averages 30 points per game for the rest of the season
If the Nets trade Cameron Johnson by the deadline, Thomas could take over as the team’s primary scorer. He’s averaging 24.7 points per game, and with increased shot attempts, he could average 30 points moving forward.
The Rockets make a move
Though Houston has been reluctant to trade players, they may make a move as the deadline approaches. With a 22-11 record, they’re in the third spot in the Western Conference and could use some veteran additions to strengthen their roster. De’Aaron Fox could be a potential target.
If it’s true that former Georgia quarterback Carson Beck will receive $4 million in NIL money to play for the University of Miami in 2025, that kind of money will encourage more top college football players to do what the NFL has wanted for years — stay in school.
Even though it’s no longer about school, it’s clear that college football is now a business. For a long time, everyone involved in college football — from the university president to the person selling popcorn — was getting paid, except for the players. That’s changed now. The illusion has ended. College football is professional football, and it’s paying better than the early years of most rookie NFL contracts.
For 2024 first-round draft picks, only the top 16 players had four-year contracts worth more than $4 million a year. So, staying in college for another year or two allows a player to make a lot of money while getting more playing experience before heading to the NFL, even if their draft stock isn’t as high.
The big question for players now is whether they should take the money they can make in college or head to the NFL and begin the three-year path to a contract that could pay more in the long run.
This assumes the player will be good enough to earn a solid second contract, and that the team drafting him will be willing to pay after three years instead of holding him under the fifth-year option or using the franchise tag.
Carson Beck throws from the pocket in the 1st half
Another issue will show up on draft day. As more top college players leave with significant cash in hand, they will have more power to turn down offers from poorly managed teams and sit out if needed. This gives them leverage to demand a trade or refuse to be drafted by certain teams.
This strategy will likely upset fans and some media members who criticize players for making business choices, but eventually, this resistance will fade, just like the complaints about players skipping bowl games.
The idea of players avoiding bad teams isn’t new. Eli Manning did it in 2004 by refusing to join the Chargers, and John Elway did the same in 1983 with the Colts. It’s been 21 years since the last time, so the next time it happens could be in 2025.
It’s something that needs to happen. Too many careers, especially of quarterbacks, have been damaged by landing with bad teams or organizations. Many of the best quarterbacks in 2025, like Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, and Geno Smith, started with struggling teams like the Jets and Browns. Those teams might be looking to draft another quarterback in the first round this year.
The rise of NIL deals helps players avoid having their NFL careers ruined early by giving them more experience in college. It also helps them build a financial cushion, giving them the ability to push back against the NFL’s control over the draft process.
It’s not personal; it’s business. NFL teams have made business decisions for decades. Now, it’s time for players to start making their own business decisions.
The fantasy football season may be over, but there’s still fun to be had with the playoffs. Here are some Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) picks and potential prop bets to consider for Wild Card weekend.
Players to Target
QB Jayden Daniels $35
Tampa Bay’s defense has struggled against the pass all season while being strong against the run. This sets up well for Daniels, a strong runner with 88 rushing yards in the September match between these teams. Expect another dynamic performance from him.
QB Bo Nix $25
Nix had a solid regular season with Denver, ranking sixth in pass rate over expected. His running stats have been up and down, but in his final four games, he was more aggressive as a runner. The weather in Buffalo is also expected to be mild, which could help Denver in this one-and-done format.
QB Sam Darnold $29
Darnold had a breakout season but struggled against the Lions in Week 18. Despite this, the Vikings already have game tape on the Rams, and with Kevin O’Connell as coach, I trust him to make the most of this matchup. The Rams’ defense is one of the weakest in the playoffs.
RB Bucky Irving $32
Irving isn’t cheap but is still $8 cheaper than Saquon Barkley. After the bye week, Tampa Bay made Irving their main back, and Washington has one of the worst run defenses in the playoffs, ranked 26th in DVOA.
WR Khalil Shakir $25
Buffalo has struggled to get consistent play from its outside receivers, and Shakir is likely to be the go-to option when Josh Allen needs a quick throw. He’s a reliable target and could see plenty of action in this matchup.
Russell Wilson passes in the 1st half
WR Olamide Zaccheaus $16
Zaccheaus is a solid low-cost option. His role grew as the season went on, with solid yardage in his last three games. He could be a valuable budget-friendly pick.
WR Jalen McMillan $27
With Mike Evans likely to face off against Marshon Lattimore, McMillan’s role should grow. The rookie receiver has been strong down the stretch, scoring seven touchdowns in his last five games.
TE Tucker Kraft $16
Kraft is a solid option at tight end for Green Bay. With a crowded wide receiver group, Kraft has been getting more opportunities and has a catch of 20 yards or longer in five consecutive weeks.
Daily Fantasy Suggestions NFL $10 Quadruple Up – Win $40
Lamar Jackson (QB – PIT @ BAL) $39
Derrick Henry (RB – PIT @ BAL) $36
Isaiah Likely (TE) $11
Players to Fade
QB Russell Wilson $24
Though Wilson’s salary seems affordable, he’s been struggling lately with four straight losses and a low yards per attempt in his last two games. With Pittsburgh’s weak expected team total, this feels like a trap.
QB Matthew Stafford $22
Stafford, 37, has not been productive in recent weeks. He averaged just 153 yards per game in his final three weeks with only one touchdown. It’s been a tough season for veteran quarterbacks, and I’ll be avoiding Stafford in this matchup.
WR A.J. Brown $35
Brown’s targets have been modest, averaging just 7.46 per game. Philadelphia prefers to run the ball, and when they’re in close, Jalen Hurts is the one getting the touchdowns. At this price, Brown is a pass for my Sunday lineups.
Understanding NCAA Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) Rules A Guide for High School Athletes
College football’s transfer portal reopened this month, allowing players to move more freely than ever before. After months of confusion, the NCAA has made its transfer rules clearer and permanent, starting an era of unrestricted transfers for most athletes.
On Wednesday, the NCAA Division I Council approved a new rule for undergraduate transfers, which connects transfer eligibility with academic progress rules. The NCAA Division I Board of Directors confirmed the change on Monday. According to the NCAA, a four-year undergraduate transfer student-athlete must:
Leave their previous school academically eligible
Be in good standing with the previous school (meaning not under disciplinary suspension or dismissal)
Meet all academic progress requirements at the new school before competing
The goal is to give athletes more flexibility to transfer as long as they are fulfilling their student-athlete responsibilities. The NCAA said it will keep an eye on academic trends to decide if stricter academic rules are needed in the future. For now, the academic standards are mostly the same as before, with the rule requiring athletes to stay at their previous school for a year now removed.
Previously, the NCAA allowed every athlete to transfer once and play immediately. However, athletes transferring again had to sit out for a year before they could play at a new school. This rule started in April 2021, just two months before the NCAA changed its rules to allow athletes to profit from their name, image, and likeness (NIL). These changes together have led to comparisons between college sports and free agency in professional sports.
However, the NCAA intended to limit athletes to just one free transfer under the new system. When some well-known athletes asked for waivers to transfer again without the one-year sit-out rule and were denied, it led to public disagreements between schools and the NCAA.
Duke’s Cooper Flagg, right, attempts a shot ahead of Virginia Tech’s Jaden Schutt, left, during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game in Durham
One notable case was North Carolina’s attempt to get receiver Tez Walker eligible, which the NCAA eventually approved in October after citing “new information,” but not without criticism of the school’s aggressive push for its player.
These tensions reached a peak in December 2023, when a group of seven state attorneys general sued the NCAA in West Virginia, claiming that the rule requiring athletes who transfer more than once to sit out a year goes against antitrust laws. U.S. District Judge John Preston Bailey issued a temporary restraining order, which was later changed to a preliminary injunction, allowing multi-time transfer athletes in winter and spring sports to play right away without penalties.
The NCAA quickly agreed to extend this rule to football and other fall sports, allowing athletes who transfer before the end of the 2023-24 academic year to play immediately in order to keep its rules consistent across sports.
Since then, athletes and schools have been assuming that these freedoms would continue indefinitely. But the official status of transfers beyond the 2023-24 academic year remained unclear — until this week.
The new transfer rule keeps the structure of transfer windows, which vary by sport but require athletes to tell their current school of their intention to transfer during a specific time. Graduate transfers can enter the portal at any time, but they need to do so before the end of their sport’s transfer window to be immediately eligible for the next season.
No athlete can transfer in the middle of their sport’s season and compete for a new team during that season. The SEC also continues to have a rule that stops players from transferring within the conference during the spring window without sitting out a season. But aside from that, the next two weeks bring both opportunities and uncertainty for athletes with many possible options.
Controversial events of 2024 that changed the direction of sports
Imane Khelif Wins Gold Medal in Paris
Imane Khelif, the most-Googled athlete of the year, found herself at the center of controversy at the Paris Olympics. Khelif, from Algeria, won the gold medal in boxing for her weight class, despite concerns about her gender eligibility.
Khelif had been disqualified from the 2023 International Boxing Association World Championships after IBA president Umar Kremlev claimed that she had “XY chromosomes,” which are typically linked to biological males.
However, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) supported Khelif, as well as Taiwan’s Lin Yu-ting, who also won a gold medal in another women’s weight class despite similar criticism.
The IOC stated, “These two athletes were the victims of a sudden and arbitrary decision by the IBA. Towards the end of the IBA World Championships in 2023, they were suddenly disqualified without any due process.”
Khelif went on to dominate in Paris, winning every round on her way to gold. In fact, one boxer, Angela Carini, even forfeited her match against Khelif, saying “one punch hurt too much.”
Caitlin Clark Roughs It During Historic Rookie Season
Caitlin Clark made history in her first season with the Indiana Fever, becoming a standout in women’s sports, especially women’s basketball.
However, her remarkable rookie season was not without its own controversy, particularly during a game when she was playing. Clark made national headlines after Chennedy Carter of the Chicago Sky fouled her hard on the court early in the season, which was called a Flagrant-1 foul.
This foul wasn’t a necessary physical move, so the foul call was made, but it sparked much more discussion in media and talk shows.
Caitlin Clark (WNBA)
There was debate over whether players were being too rough with Clark, who had already experienced some tough fouls earlier in the season. Race also became a part of the conversation.
Clark continued to face physical challenges, including from fellow rookie Angel Reese, who hit her in the head during a layup attempt. However, both Reese and Clark later agreed that it was just an unfortunate moment in the game.
Brooke Fleming and SJSU Women’s Volleyball
Transgender athletes in women’s sports became a big topic of debate this year, and one case made national news when San Jose State’s women’s volleyball team was involved in controversy because of trans athlete Brooke Fleming.
The Spartans had several forfeits from opponents this season, and though it wasn’t directly stated, it seemed clear that many teams refused to play against Fleming.
There was also trouble within her own team. Team captain Brooke Slusser is part of two lawsuits that claim the university and Fleming worked to prevent her and other players from knowing that Fleming is biologically male. Slusser also joined a lawsuit against the NCAA over its policies on gender and allowing transgender athletes to compete in women’s sports.
Despite this, San Jose State continued to play against opponents until the Mountain West tournament. They received a bye for being the No. 2 seed. Boise State, which had forfeited earlier in the season, won against Utah State in the quarterfinals, setting up a semifinal match with SJSU.
However, Boise State forfeited again, giving SJSU a spot in the championship without ever playing a match. Colorado State, the No. 1 seed, went on to beat SJSU, 3-1, to win the title and qualify for the NCAA Tournament.
Jordan Chiles’ Bronze Medal
This summer was a big one for Team USA’s women’s gymnastics team, especially with Simone Biles becoming the most decorated gymnast in U.S. history. However, her teammate Jordan Chiles was at the center of controversy after being awarded the bronze medal in the individual floor exercise.
American coaches asked for a review of her score, which was changed and put her ahead of Romania’s Ana Barbosu, who ended up in fourth place instead of winning the medal.
Jordan Chiles performs in the games
But the Court of Arbitration for Sport ruled that Chiles’ appeal had been submitted after the one-minute deadline, so her score was returned to its original number, and Barbosu was given the bronze. Chiles was ordered to give back the medal.
This was an emotional moment for 23-year-old Chiles, who claimed she faced “racially driven attacks” on social media and shared a lengthy statement on X about it. She is still appealing the IOC’s decision, and Simone Biles even said she would support Chiles in her effort to get the bronze back.
Nick Bosa’s MAGA Hat
During the presidential election, sports also became part of the controversy when NFL player Nick Bosa made his political views clear. The San Francisco 49ers star defensive end showed his support for one of the candidates by wearing a “Make America Great Again” hat during his quarterback Brock Purdy’s postgame interview on “Sunday Night Football.”
The NFL rules forbid political messaging, and Bosa was fined $11,255 for wearing the hat. However, Bosa said that despite the backlash and media attention, wearing the hat was “well worth it” after Donald Trump became President-elect.
“I don’t think my position on speaking about it is going to change, so clearly the nation spoke. We got what we got,” Bosa said at the time.
Athletes Do the “Trump Dance”
During the campaign trail, President-elect Donald Trump’s dance moves became a popular trend, and players in both college and professional football started mimicking them after scoring touchdowns and making key plays.
Although it wasn’t as obvious an endorsement as Nick Bosa’s “MAGA” hat, the dance moves sparked a lot of discussion on social media, with fans having mixed opinions about it.
NFL players like Brock Bowers, Calvin Ridley, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Za’Darius Smith, and Malcolm Rodriguez were all seen doing the dance. Bowers explained that he got the idea from UFC star Jon “Bones” Jones, who performed the dance after his victory at Madison Square Garden in November, with Trump sitting in the front row.
Bowers said, “I like watching UFC, so I saw it and thought it was cool.” The NFL didn’t have any issues with the players’ dance moves, despite the attention it caused.
Falcons Draft Michael Penix Jr.
The NFL Draft always brings surprises, and one big shock came when the Atlanta Falcons selected quarterback Michael Penix Jr. from Washington with the eighth overall pick in April. The Falcons had just signed Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180 million contract, so most people didn’t expect them to pick a quarterback, especially with such a high draft pick.
Michael Penix Jr. heads back after the game
The Falcons had to explain their decision, and Cousins faced questions about the situation, even though he hadn’t played a single game for Atlanta yet.
Now, Penix is finishing the season as the Falcons’ starting quarterback, and Cousins’ future with the team is uncertain after a not-so-great first season in Atlanta.
Bill Belichick Doesn’t Land Next NFL Gig
It was hard to believe when Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots ended their 24-year relationship, during which they won six Super Bowls. Everyone thought Belichick would quickly find a new head coaching job with many openings, but that didn’t happen.
The Falcons came closest to hiring Belichick but eventually chose Raheem Morris instead. Teams like the Seattle Seahawks, Tennessee Titans, Washington Commanders, Carolina Panthers, Los Angeles Chargers, and Las Vegas Raiders all hired other coaches. Belichick ended up entering the sports media world.
In a surprising move, Belichick became the new head football coach for North Carolina, starting a whole new career in college football.
“Raygun” Makes Olympic Headlines for All the Wrong Reasons
One of the new sports added to the Paris Olympics this year was Breaking, and Australian competitor Rachel Gunn, known by her stage name “Raygun,” made headlines—not for her performance, but for failing to score any points.
Some people thought Gunn was mocking the competition with her dancing, though she explained that she was trying to be as creative as possible. Gunn had qualified for the Paris Olympics by winning the QMS Oceania Championships in Sydney and was named the top-ranked b-girl by the Australian Breaking Association in 2020 and 2021.
However, when she got to the Olympics, Gunn admitted she felt overmatched. “As soon as I qualified, I was like, ‘Oh my gosh, what have I done?’ because I knew I was going to get beaten, and I knew people weren’t going to understand my style and what I was going to do,” she said.
