Hard as it might be to believe, the 2024-25 NHL season is already more than halfway over. The average team has played 53% of the regular season, which equals 43.1 out of 82 games. This means struggling teams don’t have much time left to turn things around, with the March 7 trade deadline just 52 days away.
There’s a hierarchy within the teams feeling the pressure: Some, like the Boston Bruins, are still in the playoff mix despite a rough start. Some, like the Pittsburgh Penguins, are hanging on and hoping their rivals slip up.
Others, like the Buffalo Sabres, are in a position where only a miracle can save their playoff hopes (or they may need to accept the reality that their playoff dreams are over).
Let’s look at 12 teams that hoped to make the playoffs this season but now have a playoff probability of 50% or lower. We’ll break them down into categories based on their current playoff chances and the level of panic within each group.
Can fix this
These teams have playoff odds around 50%, so they still have a chance, but they need to improve in the coming months.
Boston Bruins (22-19)
Playoff odds: 41%
After their record-setting 2022-23 season, the Bruins have taken a step back. They lost key players like Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci but still managed to do well last season. They entered this season with a young roster, but things have not gone as expected.
They fired former NHL Coach of the Year Jim Montgomery six weeks into the season. Under new coach Joe Sacco, the team showed signs of improvement but recently hit another slump that puts their playoff chances in danger.
Must improve: The power play. The Bruins are ranked third-to-last in power-play scoring (13.2%). Only David Pastrnak is in the top 60 for power-play goals. The team has been struggling to score overall, with many forwards performing below their usual levels, and their defensemen aren’t contributing much either. Even Charlie McAvoy is struggling, so they need to capitalize on power-play opportunities.
Special panic factor: They’ve already made a coaching change, which is often a sign that a team is running out of solutions.
New York Rangers (20-20)
Playoff odds: 47%
The Rangers are the biggest example of panic this season. They were looking good in mid-November, but a series of losing streaks and injuries caused their playoff odds to drop significantly.
A few recent wins and the return of star goalie Igor Shesterkin offer hope, but the Rangers are still well below the wild-card cut line. Their playoff odds are this high mainly because the team’s talent suggests they can bounce back in the second half.
Must improve: Big-name production. A team with players like Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider, and Adam Fox should not be ranked 20th in scoring with a negative goal differential. Except for Shesterkin, none of the key players have performed at their expected levels this season.
Special panic factor: The market size. Playing in New York, their struggles are under intense scrutiny.
Ottawa Senators (22-18)
Playoff odds: 48%
The Senators are a bit of an odd case. They haven’t made the playoffs since 2017, but they’ve spent a lot in recent offseasons to try to change that. They are currently outside the playoff picture and have been hurt by the absence of key goalie Linus Ullmark due to injury.
The frustration is real, but the team still has a lot of potential, with a positive goal differential on the season. Ottawa has a young core, and there’s still hope they could break through.
Must improve: Scoring output. The Senators’ offense ranks 20th in goals per game and 26th in goals per minute at 5-on-5. Tim Stutzle, Brady Tkachuk, and Drake Batherson have been solid, but the team needs more scoring from their forwards and defensemen. Ottawa is tied for 29th in points from defensemen, and Jake Sanderson is the only one on track to hit 40 points.
Special panic factor: Another stalled rebuild. Since making the 2017 conference finals, the Senators have gone through several cycles of rebuilding. Will they fall short of the playoffs again?
Vancouver Canucks (19-14)
Playoff odds: 53%
After spending most of last season looking like a potential Stanley Cup contender and playing well against the eventual Western Conference champion Oilers, the Canucks seemed to have a bright future in 2024-25. However, an inconsistent start to the season from everyone except Quinn Hughes led to a slump, with Vancouver losing 12 of 16 games at one point.
Now, they are barely holding onto the final wild-card spot in the conference. There are even reports of the Canucks considering trade offers for key players like J.T. Miller and Elias Pettersson. The good news is that Vancouver is still more likely to make the playoffs than not, and they’re a better team than their negative goal differential suggests, but they need to get back to form.
Must improve: Goaltending. Vancouver has fallen from sixth in save percentage last season to 22nd this season. Much of this drop is due to star goalie Thatcher Demko missing time, but even when he’s been available, he hasn’t been playing well with an .883 save percentage.
Special panic factor: The long slump. Spending about a month in a losing streak can cause teams to lose focus on the bigger picture.
Other teams that fall into this category:
Calgary Flames (21-15)
Playoff odds: 35%
Hanging on by a thread
This group has lower playoff odds than the first one. These teams might still have a chance to turn things around, but none of them has shown much movement up the standings yet.
Pittsburgh Penguins (18-20)
Playoff odds: 9%
The Penguins have missed the playoffs the past two seasons despite having veteran stars like Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang, and Erik Karlsson. They hoped to reignite the old magic with their aging core, and Crosby even signed a two-year extension in September. However, the results have been disappointing.
While Pittsburgh’s power play has improved (ranking fifth after dropping to 30th last season), the team is ranked 16th in scoring and 29th in goal differential, with Malkin currently on injured reserve. The Penguins are still close to a wild-card spot, but they haven’t shown enough to look like a playoff team.
Must improve: Goal prevention. The biggest priority for the Penguins is to improve their defense and goaltending. They’ve allowed fewer than three goals just once since December 17. Their defense is one of the worst in the league, and the goaltending duo of Alex Nedeljkovic and Tristan Jarry has been shaky. Without improvement here, they won’t make the playoffs.
Special panic factor: The end of an era. Pittsburgh is the oldest team in the league by average age, and they’ll eventually have to face the reality of closing the Crosby era.
New York Islanders (17-19)
Playoff odds: 14%
The Islanders have been a consistent playoff team under both former coach Lane Lambert and current coach Patrick Roy in recent years. However, their current playoff odds suggest that streak may come to an end.
They’re right behind their metro rival Rangers in the standings, well below the playoff cutoff. Unlike the Rangers, the Islanders don’t have as much talent outside of goalie Ilya Sorokin, whose performance has been more average this season.
Must improve: Scoring. With Mathew Barzal missing a lot of the early season due to injury, the Islanders are ranked 26th in goals per game and have the league’s worst power play (10.6%). While Anders Lee has had some success scoring, and Barzal has been back for about a month, the team’s scoring hasn’t improved much.
The Islanders had success in the late 2010s and early 2020s with weak offense, but this version of the team isn’t strong enough defensively to sustain that style.
Special panic factor: Running out of time. The Islanders have the fourth-oldest roster in the league, and some key players like Brock Nelson and Kyle Palmieri will be free agents soon.
St. Louis Blues (21-20)
Playoff odds: 17%
After their surprising Stanley Cup win in 2019, the Blues will always be remembered for their incredible second-half comeback. This season, the Blues are not a bad team, but they are struggling. Since Jim Montgomery took over as coach in late November, the team has been 11-11, which is just average. Staying at .500 won’t be enough to secure a wild-card spot in the Western Conference.
Must improve: Special teams. Like the Minnesota Wild, Islanders, Bruins, and Ducks, the Blues are ranked 23rd or worse on both power play and penalty kill. Despite having solid offensive players like Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou, Dylan Holloway, and Pavel Buchnevich, only two players have more than two power-play goals. Goalie Jordan Binnington, while decent, has the seventh-worst save percentage on the penalty kill.
Special panic factor: Franchise expectations. The Blues are a proud team, and if they miss the playoffs this year, it will be their second three-year playoff drought in team history.
Detroit Red Wings (20-19)
Playoff odds: 21%
The Red Wings used to make the playoffs for 25 straight seasons, but they haven’t made it in the last eight years. This season, their chances have slowly decreased, and they are currently around a 20% chance of making it. It’s surprising that a team with players like Lucas Raymond, Alex DeBrincat, Dylan Larkin, and Moritz Seider is fighting for a playoff spot.
Must improve: Depth. While the Red Wings have strong players, their depth outside the top five players is lacking. They have the 10th-fewest goals from players outside their top five of any team.
Special panic factor: Impatience. Fans and team management are getting frustrated, especially after general manager Steve Yzerman’s recent outburst when asked about the team’s long rebuild. The Red Wings have been rebuilding for years, and it’s surprising they haven’t broken through yet under the “Yzerplan.”
Other teams in this category:
- Utah Hockey Club (18-18)
Playoff odds: 13% - Philadelphia Flyers (19-20)
Playoff odds: 6%
Resigned to their fate
These teams had some hope before the season started but have since accepted that making the playoffs is unlikely.
Chicago Blackhawks (14-28)
Playoff odds: < 1%
The Blackhawks didn’t have high playoff odds to start the season, but there was hope that with Connor Bedard, the team could outperform expectations. Unfortunately, coach Luke Richardson was fired in December, the new players haven’t lived up to expectations, and Bedard has faced unfair criticism as the team continues to struggle.
Must improve: Driving play. One of the main problems for the Blackhawks is that they haven’t been able to control the game. They have ranked last in their share of total shot attempts at 5-on-5 for two straight seasons.
Special panic factor: Bust worries. Much of the criticism of Bedard comes from impatience, with some fearing he might not live up to his “generational prospect” status. However, Bedard is performing well, currently on pace for the eighth-most adjusted points as a teenager in NHL history.
Seattle Kraken (19-23)
Playoff odds: 1%
The Kraken have been compared to their older expansion team brothers, the Golden Knights, who had an immediate success. Seattle tried to follow in their footsteps by making it to the second round in their second season, but they have struggled in their third season under new coach Dan Bylsma. Recently, they went through a tough stretch of three wins in 13 games, which has almost completely ruined their playoff chances.
Must improve: Talent development. The Kraken made some early moves to compete right away, bringing in prime-aged players, but that hasn’t worked out as planned. Some of their younger talents, like 2023 Calder Trophy winner Matty Beniers, haven’t developed as expected. Seattle might need a new strategy for building their team in the future.
Special panic factor: Return to expansion woes. Back in 2021, people wondered if the success of Vegas was a fluke or if future expansion teams could be just as competitive. Right now, Seattle is struggling, and it raises concerns that the Vegas model might not be something other expansion teams can replicate.
Nashville Predators (14-22)
Playoff odds: 3%
Nashville had high hopes after adding big-name players in the offseason, including future Hall of Famer Steven Stamkos. On paper, the team looked like a contender, but the decision to bring in several older players and form one of the oldest rosters in the league has not worked out. Aside from solid play from goalie Juuse Saros, the Predators have not met expectations.
Must improve: Approach for 2025-26. Unless there’s an incredible turnaround, the Predators are unlikely to make the playoffs this season. However, they still have many of the same players under contract for the next few years. Nashville will need to figure out how to use its salary cap effectively or make a better plan to get more out of their talent moving forward.
Special panic factor: Fear of the washed vet. Steven Stamkos, at 34 years old, is having one of the worst seasons of his career, and there’s a real concern when a team gives a four-year, $32 million contract to a veteran whose performance drops off.
Buffalo Sabres (16-22)
Playoff odds: 3%
The Sabres have had a long playoff drought, now looking likely to reach 14 years without a postseason appearance. They were in good shape for a while and seemed ready to end the streak, but a shocking 13-game losing streak has almost completely ruined their chances.
Must improve: Defense and goaltending. The Sabres have some talented forwards like Tage Thompson, Jason Zucker, and Alex Tuch, and skilled young defensemen like Rasmus Dahlin, Bowen Byram, and Owen Power. However, the team needs to improve on defense.
They rank 27th in goals allowed per game, 26th in scoring chances allowed per minute, and 28th in save percentage. This lack of defense has been a major reason why Buffalo hasn’t made the playoffs in years.
Special panic factor: Will it ever end?? The longer a playoff drought goes on, the more pressure builds to end it. This can lead to poor decision-making and weigh heavily on the franchise, as seen with teams in the past. The Sabres may need a special group of players to overcome this history, like the 2004 Boston Red Sox or the 2016 Chicago Cubs did.
Other teams in this category:
- Anaheim Ducks (18-21)
Playoff odds: 1% - San Jose Sharks (14-26)
Playoff odds: < 1%
