Roki Sasaki is able to sign with Major League Baseball (MLB) teams during a nine-day period starting on Wednesday. This rare free agency is expected to have an impact on Latin American teenagers, as many of their agreements worth millions are on hold while waiting for Sasaki’s decision.
The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres are the top contenders to sign Sasaki, with the Toronto Blue Jays also in the mix.
Sasaki, a 23-year-old right-handed pitcher, could have signed a major league deal worth over $100 million if he had stayed healthy and waited until after the 2026 season to be posted by his Japanese team. Yoshinobu Yamamoto took this route and signed a record-breaking 10-year, $325 million contract with the Dodgers in December 2023.
However, since Sasaki is under 25 and has not played six seasons in Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB), he is considered an international amateur by MLB. This means he is limited to signing a minor league contract with a spending cap set by MLB and the players’ association. The system, which began in 2012 and was updated in 2017, limits teams’ spending on international players.
Why will Roki Sasaki’s contract impact Latin American teenagers?
Players from countries outside the U.S. states, Puerto Rico, and Canada are grouped together for MLB’s international amateur free agency system. Sasaki is part of the 2025 group, which is mostly made up of 16-year-olds born between Sept. 1, 2007, and Aug. 31, 2008. The signing period opens Wednesday morning.
Sasaki has a limited time to sign with an MLB team due to a 45-day posting window set by the MLB-NPB agreement. He must sign by 5 p.m. EST on Jan. 23, or his rights will remain with the Chiba Lotte Marines, his team in Japan’s Pacific League.
Most international amateur free agents are Latin American teens. In 2024, 546 players from the Dominican Republic, 365 from Venezuela, and 52 from Mexico were signed, along with smaller numbers from other countries.
Though the 2025 class cannot officially sign contracts until Wednesday, informal agreements are common in countries like the Dominican Republic, Colombia, and Venezuela, where players as young as 14 are promised millions in deals that often help kids from poor backgrounds.
Each MLB team has a bonus pool, ranging from $5.1 million to $7.6 million, to sign international amateurs. Signing Sasaki could take up a team’s entire pool and may force them to back out of handshake agreements with other players. These players may face difficulties finding other teams to sign them since other clubs may also have agreements for large portions of their pool.
Last year, 290 contracts were signed on the first day of the signing period. This year, teams may hold off on deals to save space for Sasaki and may delay agreements until 2026. Some players, like Dominican shortstop Darell Morel, have already adjusted their plans and will sign with Pittsburgh instead of the Dodgers.
What are the bonus pools?
Each MLB team has a set budget for international amateur signings, with the amount based on the team’s record from the previous year, its spending on top free agents, and other factors.
For 2025, eight teams have the highest pool of about $7.6 million: the Athletics, Cincinnati, Detroit, Miami, Milwaukee, Minnesota, Seattle, and Tampa Bay.
Six teams have around $6.9 million: Arizona, Baltimore, Cleveland, Colorado, Kansas City, and Pittsburgh. Twelve teams have about $6.3 million: Atlanta, Boston, the Chicago Cubs and White Sox, the Los Angeles Angels, the New York Mets and Yankees, Philadelphia, San Diego, Texas, Toronto, and Washington. Houston and St. Louis have roughly $5.6 million, while the Dodgers and San Francisco have the smallest at $5.1 million.
Starting Wednesday, teams can make trades to increase their signing bonus pool by up to 60%. These trades must be in $250,000 increments, but teams can also trade their entire remaining pool in one deal.
Why would a team spend its full allotment on Sasaki?
Sasaki is an exceptional talent who has already proven himself in a top professional league and international tournaments. If he were a free agent, he could make hundreds of millions of dollars. However, like Shohei Ohtani in 2017, Sasaki values playing at the highest level more than maximizing his initial MLB contract.
In the 2023 World Baseball Classic, Sasaki threw 21 of 66 pitches over 100 mph, with a top speed of 101.9 mph in his start against the Czech Republic. In a semifinal against Mexico, 26 of his 64 pitches were over 100 mph, including a strikeout of MLB player Randy Arozarena with a pitch at 101.8 mph.
Sasaki had a 10-5 record with a 2.35 ERA in 2024, striking out 129 hitters in 111 innings despite shoulder inflammation. In 2023, he went 7-4 with a 1.78 ERA in 15 starts, while dealing with an oblique injury. His career record over four seasons with the Marines is 29-15 with a 2.10 ERA, including a perfect game in April 2022 against Orix.
If Sasaki is selected for an MLB roster in 2025, he would earn the league minimum of $760,000. After the 2027 season, he could become eligible for arbitration and free agency in 2030.
Due to the posting system, the Marines will receive a release fee equal to 25% of Sasaki’s signing bonus. Ohtani went through a similar system when he signed with the Los Angeles Angels for a $2.315 million bonus before the 2018 season.
Ohtani’s early move to the MLB worked out well for him. He took a pay cut in exchange for joining MLB sooner, earning $545,000, $650,000, and $259,259 (in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season) during his first three years.
He then made $3 million, $5.5 million, and $30 million during his three arbitration years, before agreeing to a record 10-year, $700 million deal with the Dodgers ahead of the 2024 season.
