At the All-Star break, it seemed like the race for the National League Rookie of the Year might already be decided. But things have changed.
A fantastic August has made San Diego’s Jackson Merrill the new favorite for the award, pushing Pittsburgh right-hander Paul Skenes out of the top spot.
The shift in the betting odds has been significant. Skenes was a strong favorite at -1200 during the break, but now Merrill is leading at -800.
Skenes hasn’t done anything to hurt his chances. The 2023 No. 1 overall draft pick has a record of 8-2 with a 2.23 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP.
The struggling Pirates have been careful with Skenes, but they haven’t shut him down, and he was a strong candidate for Rookie of the Year in mid-July.
However, Merrill, who has been in the majors all season, has been making a strong push for the award with a San Diego team that is now in wild-card contention.
In August, Merrill hit .303 with seven home runs and a .969 OPS. After another home run on September 1, Merrill’s stats are .289 with 21 home runs and 79 RBIs.
Skenes still leads Merrill in Baseball Reference’s wins above replacement, but Merrill is ahead in the FanGraphs version.
It’s worth noting that the other major awards have stayed consistent. The favorites from the All-Star break — Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani for MVP, Tarik Skubal and Chris Sale for Cy Young — are still leading and actually have better odds now than they did then.
