The fourth semifinalist for the 2025 College Football Playoff will be decided when seventh-seeded Notre Dame plays No. 2 seed Georgia in the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans on Thursday.
The game was delayed a day because of a suspected terrorist attack that killed at least 15 people and injured many others in New Orleans’ French Quarter during New Year’s celebrations.
The match will now take place with increased security, and the winner will move on to face Penn State in the semifinals.
ODDS AND TRENDS
Georgia (11-2) was a slight favorite for most of the week at various sportsbooks, but by Wednesday night, the consensus had shifted to Notre Dame -1.0 at several sportsbooks.
Georgia opened at -1.5 at BetMGM, but they were underdogs by Thursday morning, even though 54 percent of spread-line bets and 51 percent of the money were on Georgia. Meanwhile, BetRivers showed that 58 percent of the spread-line money was on Notre Dame (12-1), which was still a half-point underdog at that book.
BetRivers also mentioned that Notre Dame has had a better record against the spread than all but Arizona State and Marshall this season, with a 10-2-1 mark. The Fighting Irish have covered the spread in eight straight games, while Georgia has failed to cover in four of their last six.
This bowl season has seen many high-scoring games, and BetMGM set the total points line at 45.5, with 54 percent of the money backing the Over.
Four of the past six games for both teams have gone Over at BetRivers.
PROP PICKS
– Georgia QB Gunner Stockton 2+ Passing TDs (+205 at DraftKings): This player prop has been the most popular bet, even though Stockton has little experience in such a big game. He’s only attempted 32 passes all season, with 16 of them coming in for the injured Carson Beck during the SEC Championship Game. Stockton completed 75 percent of his passes and led the offense to an overtime win against Texas.
– Notre Dame QB Riley Leonard Over 40.5 Rushing Yards (-130 at BetMGM): Leonard, who can run and throw, has rushed for 751 yards and 15 touchdowns this season. He didn’t run much in Notre Dame’s 41-13 win over Indiana on Dec. 20 but has rushed for at least 41 yards in eight games this season.
THE NEWS
Stockton replaced Beck in Georgia’s 22-19 overtime win over Texas. Stockton completed 12 of 16 passes for 71 yards and one interception. The victory gave Georgia a playoff bye and extra preparation time, though they didn’t know who they’d be facing until Notre Dame’s 27-17 first-round win over Indiana.
Georgia’s coach Kirby Smart said that the extra time helped Stockton practice with the first-team offense, but the Bulldogs couldn’t fully prepare for their opponent until Notre Dame advanced.
Smart explained that the biggest help for Stockton was the chance to practice in competitive situations. Stockton has completed 25 of 32 passes for 206 yards with no touchdowns and one interception this season. Freshman Nate Frazier leads the running game with 634 yards and eight touchdowns on 129 carries.
Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman said they studied about 80 plays from Stockton’s games to prepare. Freeman noted that Stockton can run the offense and extend plays with his legs, making him a tough competitor.
Smart downplayed the idea that Stockton’s running ability would change Georgia’s game plan. He said, “We are who we are.”
The break between games has left Georgia with about 3 1/2 weeks off, while Notre Dame kept its momentum by winning its 11th straight game.
Smart said managing the time off is tough because teams can lose rhythm during long breaks.
Freeman, like other coaches in the 12-team College Football Playoff, has had to adjust to playing back-to-back postseason games. Freeman said preparing for the playoffs is different from a bowl game, and the team must focus on preparing for each game while aiming for the next one.
Unfortunately, defensive tackle Rylie Mills will miss the rest of the season after suffering a knee injury against Indiana. Freeman praised Mills as a strong leader and player but emphasized that other players would step up in his place.
Mills had 7 1/2 sacks this season, and he and All-American defensive lineman Howard Cross III helped the defense perform well despite injuries, including cornerback Benjamin Morrison’s season-ending injury in October.
On offense, Riley Leonard has thrown for 2,293 yards and 17 touchdowns, with six interceptions, while Jeremiyah Love has rushed for 1,057 yards and 16 touchdowns, averaging 7.4 yards per carry.
PREDICTION
This is one of the toughest games to predict. Notre Dame has faced a weaker schedule with no top-10 opponents, while Georgia could have lost more than two games this season and is playing with a backup quarterback. Stockton impressed in relief against Texas, but Georgia’s defense should be the strongest unit on the field. We predict Georgia will win 27-23.
