The Chiefs are favored by a small margin to beat the Bills on Sunday, giving them a chance to win an unprecedented third consecutive Super Bowl. However, this doesn’t mean Kansas City is necessarily the stronger team.
“I agree with that,” CBS SportsLine handicapper Bruce Marshall said. “I think that might have been the case last year, but I don’t think Buffalo is going to win.”
Marshall was referring to last season’s game when the Chiefs won the divisional playoff match in Buffalo with a 27-24 score.
A Caesars Palace bettor placed a $1.3 million wager on the Chiefs, which could pay $1 million. Joey Feazel, head of football at Caesars Sportsbook, mentioned that besides this bet, there has been significant betting activity on both teams.
The Chiefs are favored by 1 1/2 points at Caesars, a number that has moved between 1 and 2 points.
“In our internal power rankings, the Bills are definitely better than the Chiefs,” Feazel said. “But, of course, Arrowhead (Stadium) in the playoffs, and the history between these two teams, is a big factor. We’re not talking about a 3-point spread.”
Feazel continued, “I think it’s like how the Patriots were in the past. (The Chiefs) don’t make mistakes, and that makes a difference in these games, so they get the benefit of the doubt.”
BetMGM Sportsbook lists the Chiefs as 2-point favorites. BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini said the main reason Kansas City is favored is because they are playing at home.
“I do think the Bills are rated as the better team,” Cipollini said. “Maybe just slightly.”
Few Concerns About Jalen Hurts
Bettors seem to believe Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts won’t be held back much by his knee injury when Philadelphia faces the Commanders in the NFC championship game.
The line at BetMGM started at 4 1/2 points, then moved to 6 and has stayed steady.
“It’s pretty rare to see that much line movement without an injury in a conference (title) game,” Cipollini said. “… It seems like Hurts will be fine. We didn’t see any line movement (downward) because of it, so it looks like we’ll stay around 6.”
Caesars also kept the line at 6 after opening at 6.
“I’m seeing a lot of 6 1/2s out there, so I feel better about giving Washington a shot,” Marshall said. “I think they’ve got a shot to win just because I think (Jayden) Daniels is so transcendent.”
Saquon Barkley Expected to Have Big Game
BetMGM set Saquon Barkley’s rushing total at 126 1/2 yards for the game, then raised it to 130 1/2.
“I can’t remember when we’ve offered a higher rushing total in a game than that,” Cipollini said. “So far, we’ve had nothing but overs, even at 130, and I think that trend will continue. We could even go to 140 and probably still take a lot of overs, but we’ll stick at 130 for now.”
Caesars made a smaller change, increasing Barkley’s total to 127 1/2 yards.
“He’s playing his best football ever,” Feazel said. “We’re all happy to see it, except when everyone keeps betting on Barkley. The number is high, but it’s deserved given how great he’s been this season.”
Josh Allen Driving Many Bets
Bills quarterback Josh Allen has a lot of betting action around him, with many people betting on whether he will score the first touchdown, score at least one touchdown, or even score two TDs. His rushing total also went up by 2 yards to 48 1/2.
Caesars saw a similar rise in Allen’s rushing total.
“This has been a trend in the playoffs where Josh Allen takes control, especially in big games,” Feazel said.
Can the Commanders Keep Going?
Washington has won both of its postseason games on the road, first defeating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the wild-card round, and then beating the top-seeded Detroit Lions.
“I haven’t seen a team play like this in a while, and that’s exactly what they’re doing,” Marshall said. “This is a lot of magic from Daniels. I mean, it’s (Patrick) Mahomes-type stuff. That would be an exciting Super Bowl matchup — Mahomes versus Daniels. The old Mahomes versus the new Mahomes. That’s something I’d look forward to.”
