The Green Bay Packers won’t know who their first playoff opponent is until after Sunday’s games, but there are only three possibilities, with one opponent being the most likely.
At 11-5, Green Bay enters the final week of the season as the No. 7 seed in the NFC. However, they could move up to the No. 6 seed with the right outcomes.
Here’s an update on the Packers’ playoff scenarios, possible opponents, NFC North standings, and what’s next:
Most likely opponent: Philadelphia Eagles (61%) According to PlayoffStatus.com, the Philadelphia Eagles have a 61% chance of being Green Bay’s first-round opponent.
Green Bay put itself in a tough spot after losing to Minnesota, combined with an overtime win for the Washington Commanders, making both teams 11-5. Washington has the tiebreaker, meaning the Packers, as the seventh seed, may face Philadelphia (13-3) in the first round and possibly Minnesota (14-2) or Detroit (14-2) in the following round, both teams being strong contenders.
The Eagles are locked in as the No. 2 seed as NFC East champions, unable to surpass the NFC North winner for the top spot.
To avoid the Eagles and play an easier first-round matchup against the NFC South or NFC West winner, the Packers need to beat the Chicago Bears on Sunday and hope the Commanders lose to the Dallas Cowboys.
A likely opponent: Los Angeles Rams (28%) The Los Angeles Rams (10-6) have a 28% chance of being Green Bay’s first-round opponent. The Rams have already won the NFC West and are in the No. 3 seed, holding a one-game lead over the NFC South leaders, Tampa Bay.
Green Bay beat the Rams 24-19 in October before the Rams had their key receivers, Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, fully healthy. However, Green Bay’s previous win gives them some comfort.
For the Packers to face the Rams, they need to beat the Bears, the Cowboys must beat the Commanders, and either:
- The Rams (10-6) beat the Seattle Seahawks (9-7), or
- The New Orleans Saints (5-11) beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7).
Longshot: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11%) The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7) might still lose their playoff spot if Atlanta (8-8) wins the NFC South, but that would require the Bucs to lose to the 5-11 Saints, while Atlanta beats the 4-12 Carolina Panthers.
Green Bay cannot face Atlanta, but they might meet Tampa Bay in Florida, though this would require several games to fall in the right direction for both teams.
To face the Buccaneers, the Packers must beat the Bears, the Cowboys must beat the Commanders, and:
- The Seahawks (9-7) must beat the Rams (10-6), and
- The Buccaneers (9-7) must beat the Saints (5-11).
Commanders-Packers tiebreaker With both teams having an 11-5 record, Washington holds the tiebreaker over Green Bay based on a better win percentage in conference games. Therefore, if they finish tied, Washington will be the No. 6 seed. The two teams didn’t play each other this season, so there’s no head-to-head tiebreaker.
The Packers will try to bounce back from their loss on Sunday when they play the Bears in their last regular-season game at home. The game will start at noon on Sunday.
The Packers have a good chance since they haven’t lost to the Bears in 11 games, with their last loss to Chicago dating back to the 2019 season. In fact, Matt LaFleur has never lost to the Bears as head coach of the Packers.
The Bears have lost their last 10 games. One of those losses was to the Packers, who won 20-19 after blocking a field goal on the final play of the game.
