Close games in the NFL are often decided by just one or two key plays, with the outcome sometimes feeling like a coin flip.
When Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs find themselves in these tight situations, the coin always seems to land in their favor.
Heading into the Super Bowl against Philadelphia on Sunday, Kansas City has set an NFL record by winning 17 straight games decided by one possession. This includes four postseason wins, such as last year’s Super Bowl overtime victory against San Francisco.
No other team has won more than 13 consecutive one-possession games. The previous record of 13 was set by New England in 2003-04. NFL NextGen’s stats show that the odds of Kansas City winning these close games were about 1 in 4,480, based on the win probability entering the fourth quarter.
The Chiefs’ last loss in a close game came on Christmas Day in the 2023 season, when they were defeated 20-14 at home by the Raiders. In that game, they never had the ball in the second half with a chance to tie or take the lead.
Patrick Mahomes has been exceptional in these tight moments, especially in the postseason. Kansas City has won 9 of its last 10 one-possession playoff games, starting with their Super Bowl victory in 2019. Mahomes led comeback wins in the fourth quarter or overtime in six of those games. Only Tom Brady has more career fourth-quarter comeback wins in the playoffs, with nine.
Over his career, Mahomes has been trailing in the fourth quarter of a playoff game nine times, winning six of those games and going to overtime in two others. The only time the Chiefs didn’t tie the game came in their Super Bowl loss to Tampa Bay in 2020, when they were down 31-9 heading into the fourth quarter.
Mahomes has had the ball in the fourth quarter of a playoff game 16 times while trailing by 1 to 8 points and has been nearly perfect. On these possessions, the Chiefs have kicked 5 game-tying field goals, scored 10 go-ahead touchdowns, and had 1 punt.
Mahomes has completed 40 of 56 passes for 552 yards, 5 touchdowns, 1 rushing touchdown, no turnovers, and a 132.4 passer rating on these drives. All other quarterbacks in these situations have combined for a 72.3 passer rating since Mahomes became a starter in 2018.
Running for Records
Philadelphia’s Saquon Barkley has a few records in his sights as he heads into his first Super Bowl.
Barkley needs just 30 more rushing yards to break the single-season record for regular season and playoffs, set by Denver’s Terrell Davis, who ran for 2,476 yards during the 1998 season. Barkley needs only 3 yards from scrimmage to break Davis’ total of 2,762 yards that season.
These records seem likely for Barkley, who has consistently surpassed these numbers in every game this season. However, he also has a slim chance of breaking John Riggins’ single-season playoff rushing record.
Riggins ran for 610 yards for Washington in four playoff games during the 1982 season. Barkley would need to rush for 169 yards on Sunday to break that record, something he accomplished three times this season. Barkley needs just 57 yards rushing to become one of the only players to rush for at least 500 yards in a single postseason, joining Davis (581 yards in 1997) and Riggins.
Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes can also join an exclusive list. If Mahomes rushes for at least 28 yards on Sunday, he will reach 200 rushing yards in Super Bowls. Only seven players have reached 200 yards in a Super Bowl, with Pittsburgh’s Franco Harris leading the way with 354 yards.
Other players on the list include Larry Csonka (297), Emmitt Smith (289), Terrell Davis (259), John Riggins (230), Thurman Thomas (204), and Timmy Smith (204).
Fast Starters
For most of the season, the Eagles were very slow to start on offense.
They were the first team in 33 years to fail to score in the first quarter during their first seven games of the season. By the end of Week 14, they ranked last in the NFL with just 17 first-quarter points.
However, this trend changed in the last two months. Philadelphia scored 45 points in the first quarter during the final four regular-season games, including 21 against Washington in Week 16. They scored 37 first-quarter points in the three playoff games.
The Eagles are now the third team ever to score double digits in the first quarter of all three of their playoff games, joining Green Bay (1995) and Denver (1997).
Just for Kicks
If the Super Bowl comes down to a long field goal, the Eagles may be at a disadvantage.
Jake Elliott has made just 1 of 8 field goals this season from at least 50 yards, including a missed 54-yarder against Washington in the NFC Championship game and a 60-yarder against the Saints in Week 3. His 12.5% success rate on long field goals would be the lowest for any team with at least five attempts since 1994, when New Orleans went 0 for 6 and Detroit was 0 for 5.
Kansas City’s Harrison Butker, on the other hand, holds an NFL record for six made postseason field goals from at least 50 yards, with only one miss. He set a Super Bowl record last year with a 57-yarder against San Francisco and kicked a game-winning 27-yard field goal against the Eagles two years ago.
Elliott has also missed three extra points this postseason, and he leads the league with 13 missed kicks this season.
Conference Dominance
The battle between the AFC and NFC has shifted over the years. The AFC (or AFL) won 11 of 13 Super Bowls from Super Bowl 3 to Super Bowl 15.
The NFC then dominated with 13 straight Super Bowl wins starting after the 1984 season when San Francisco beat Miami to claim its second title.
However, thanks to recent runs by Kansas City and New England, the score is now tied with both conferences having 29 wins each. The AFC can take the lead for the first time since the 1980s with a Chiefs win on Sunday.
