Every NFL week presents unique opportunities for bettors to uncover value in the wide array of markets available. Whether it’s spreads, totals, or player props, there are countless ways to engage with the action. Among these, the anytime touchdown scorer market stands out as a favorite for many due to its balance of high potential payouts and strategic depth.
This week’s focus is on Sunday afternoon matchups, where I’ll analyze key players from both teams in each game. My aim is to highlight value picks for anytime touchdown bets, often going beyond the obvious names to identify undervalued players or potential breakout stars. Let’s explore the details game by game.
Bengals vs. Browns: Tee Higgins to Strike Again
Last week, Tee Higgins rewarded those who backed him by scoring against the Titans. This week, I’m banking on him to continue that momentum. Ja’Marr Chase remains the Bengals’ primary weapon and has the lowest odds (-165) to score, but Higgins offers greater value at +130. Against man coverage, Higgins leads the team in target share and yards-per-route-run, highlighting his role in the offense when the matchup suits him.
The Browns, on the other hand, are less appealing in the touchdown market. Rookie quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson (DTR) is set to start, and his limited passing abilities—as evidenced by a 51% career completion rate and just one passing touchdown—make it hard to trust Cleveland’s passing game. However, for those looking for a longshot, DTR’s rushing ability (+400) could provide an interesting angle, as mobile quarterbacks often find the end zone on broken plays.
Picks:
- Tee Higgins (+130)
- Sprinkle on Dorian Thompson-Robinson to score a rushing touchdown (+400)
Rams vs. Jets: Davante Adams’ Red-Hot Form
Davante Adams has been nothing short of sensational in recent weeks, scoring four touchdowns across his last three games. During this span, he has amassed 35 targets, a testament to his unparalleled chemistry with his quarterback and his red-zone prowess. Facing a Rams defense that has struggled against wide receivers (allowing 17 touchdowns this season), Adams’ odds of +125 look enticing.
On the Rams’ side, primary options like Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp, and Puka Nacua come with shorter odds that reduce their value. Instead, consider Demarcus Robinson, who is priced at +375. Robinson has thrived against man coverage, a scheme favored by the Jets, making him a strong candidate for a surprising score.
Picks:
- Davante Adams (+125)
- Demarcus Robinson (+375)
Eagles vs. Commanders: DeVonta Smith Stays Hot
Since the injury to tight end Dallas Goedert, DeVonta Smith has taken on a larger role in the Eagles’ offense. With touchdowns in two consecutive games and six scores in his last 11 appearances, Smith has proven his ability to find the end zone when given the opportunity. Odds of +250 provide excellent value for a player who thrives in Goedert’s absence.
For the Commanders, Terry McLaurin is the obvious pick, but his +165 odds aren’t particularly enticing. Instead, consider Olamide Zaccheaus (+600) or Jahan Dotson (+1000) for longer-odds plays. Both players have shown flashes of brilliance and could capitalize on a game where the Eagles’ defense focuses on limiting McLaurin.
Picks:
- DeVonta Smith (+250)
- Sprinkle on Olamide Zaccheaus (+600)
- Sprinkle on Jahan Dotson (+1000)
Cardinals vs. Panthers: Trust Adam Thielen
Adam Thielen continues to be a reliable option in Carolina’s offense, particularly in the red zone. Despite returning from injury, he has consistently played over 80% of snaps and leads the team in targets. Facing a Cardinals defense ranked near the bottom in passing defense metrics, Thielen’s +200 odds are hard to ignore.
On the Cardinals’ side, Marvin Harrison Jr. remains the most productive player, boasting seven touchdowns this season. His odds of +165 reflect his ability to exploit favorable matchups, and against the Panthers’ struggling secondary, he’s a solid choice.
Picks:
- Adam Thielen (+200)
- Marvin Harrison Jr. (+165)
Titans vs. Colts: Value in the Depth Chart
Both teams in this matchup have struggled with quarterback consistency, but that doesn’t mean the touchdown market is barren. For the Colts, rookie wideout Josh Downs (+260) is an intriguing option. Downs has been heavily involved in the red zone and has shown he can perform against both man and zone coverage.
For the Titans, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (+360) stands out. He leads the team with four touchdowns against zone coverage, and the Colts employ zone schemes at the highest rate in the league. These favorable dynamics make him a high-value pick for this game.
Picks:
- Josh Downs (+260)
- Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (+360)
Lions vs. Bears: Banking on Jameson Williams
Jameson Williams delivered for his backers last week, and he’s well-positioned to do so again. Priced at +210, Williams benefits from the Bears’ inability to defend deep passes, an area where he excels. His big-play potential makes him an exciting option in this matchup.
On the Bears’ side, Keenan Allen (+220) remains a consistent threat against man coverage. He leads the team in touchdowns against this defensive scheme, making him a solid pick in a game where Chicago’s offense will likely rely on him heavily.
Picks:
- Jameson Williams (+210)
- Keenan Allen (+220)
Giants vs. Falcons: Darnell Mooney’s Deep Threat
The Falcons’ decision to shift to Michael Penix at quarterback has reinvigorated their passing game, particularly for deep threats like Darnell Mooney. Priced at +250, Mooney leads the team in average depth of target and could exploit a Giants secondary vulnerable to big plays.
For the Giants, Malik Nabers (+210) emerges as a strong candidate to score. With Drew Lock under center, Nabers has seen an uptick in target share and red-zone opportunities. For those looking for a longshot, Lock himself (+700) could find the end zone on a scramble.
Picks:
- Darnell Mooney (+250)
- Malik Nabers (+210)
- Sprinkle on Drew Lock (+700)
Raiders vs. Chargers: Don’t Sleep on Hunter Renfrow
Hunter Renfrow has quietly been one of the most reliable red-zone targets for the Raiders. With odds at +350, he offers excellent value against a Chargers defense that ranks in the bottom third for passing touchdowns allowed.
Meanwhile, the Chargers’ Austin Ekeler remains a favorite anytime touchdown scorer, but his short odds (-120) provide limited upside. Instead, consider Quentin Johnston (+250), who has been seeing increased red-zone targets and offers a higher payout for bettors.
Picks:
- Hunter Renfrow (+350)
- Quentin Johnston (+250)
Patriots vs. Dolphins: Tyreek Hill’s Big Play Potential
Tyreek Hill is the focal point of the Dolphins’ offense and leads the league in touchdowns over 40 yards. Despite his low odds (-150), Hill is a strong pick in this matchup due to his game-breaking speed and ability to score from anywhere on the field.
For the Patriots, Rhamondre Stevenson (+200) is a solid choice. Stevenson’s dual-threat ability as a rusher and receiver makes him a consistent end-zone presence for New England.
Picks:
- Tyreek Hill (-150)
- Rhamondre Stevenson (+200)
This week’s slate offers a diverse array of options for bettors looking to exploit the anytime touchdown scorer market. From high-value picks like Tee Higgins and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine to reliable favorites like Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill, there’s something for everyone.
Remember, the key to success in this market lies in identifying value—finding players whose odds do not fully reflect their potential to score. By leveraging matchups, player trends, and game scripts, you can maximize your chances of a profitable week. Happy betting!
