Tag: NFL playoff

NFC wild-card weekend

(7) Green Bay Packers at (2) Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET on Fox
Spread: PHI -4.5 (44.5)

The main question for this game is which quarterbacks will play? As I write this, it’s not clear whether Jalen Hurts (concussion) or Jordan Love (elbow) will be ready to play. Even if one or both do play, there are still concerns about their performance. Will Hurts run the ball or use tush pushes like usual? Will Love’s sore elbow affect his accuracy? Any problems with either quarterback could be the key factor in deciding the outcome.

Let’s assume that both Hurts and Love play at close to their usual level. Eagles fans would likely see that as a positive. These two teams faced off in Brazil to open the season, with Philadelphia winning 34-29. Saquon Barkley showed signs of his great season to come by scoring three touchdowns, while free agent Zack Baun sealed the win with a sack of Malik Willis on a Hail Mary attempt.

The Eagles turned the ball over three times in that game, including twice in the first quarter, but that was the last time they had such issues. After committing eight turnovers in the first four weeks, they had just seven in their final 13 games. Their turnover margin went from minus-6 during the 2-2 start to plus-17 over the next 13 games, which played a big part in them winning 13 of their last 14 games.

Another reason for Philadelphia fans to be hopeful is that the defense improved a lot after a shaky start to the season. The big change came during the Eagles’ bye week when they switched out Avonte Maddox for rookie Cooper DeJean at slot cornerback. DeJean played like a Pro Bowler from that point, and rookie corner Quinyon Mitchell was also very strong.

With the defense staying mostly healthy, except for the loss of veteran edge rusher Brandon Graham to a triceps injury, Philadelphia enters the postseason as one of the best defenses in the league.

But Green Bay is right up there too. The Packers’ defense has been outstanding in Jeff Hafley’s first season as coordinator. They lead the league in Total QBR allowed this season. The Eagles rank third in EPA per play allowed, but Green Bay is just behind them, not far off. Both teams have great defenses.

The Packers excel in one key area, and it’s something that could cause problems for the Eagles. In Week 1, Hurts connected with A.J. Brown for a 67-yard touchdown, but that was the last time all season Green Bay allowed a gain of 40 yards or more. Since then, they haven’t given up a single 40-yard play, while every other team has allowed at least six 40-yard gains. Philadelphia, a team known for explosive plays, has allowed seven such plays this season. No defense since 2000 has gone a full season without allowing a 40-yard gain.

The Eagles rely on big plays to power their offense, where they ranked second with 19 gains of 40 or more yards, just behind the Ravens. But even with all their talent, the Eagles ranked just 16th in success rate on offense, showing that they can be inconsistent at times. Hurts sometimes takes too many sacks, and Barkley had 59 runs that went for no gain or a loss. These are issues that teams can work around if they are hitting big plays regularly. If Green Bay can shut down those big plays, Philadelphia may struggle to adjust.

And while the Eagles have grown into one of the best teams since their bye, the Packers have also improved. Since Week 10, there have been only two quarterbacks in the league with a Total QBR of 80 or more: Josh Allen, a top MVP candidate, and Love, who posted an 82.8 QBR, the highest among any quarterback in the playoffs except for Allen. Love finished the season fifth in QBR, ahead of Jared Goff and five spots ahead of Hurts.

The strategy to slow down Love this season has been to blitz him. In the game against the Eagles in Brazil, Love went 6-of-12 for 38 yards against the Philly blitz, and his QBR dropped from 6th to 19th when facing extra pressure. Defenses have noticed this, and Love has been the most-blitzed quarterback in the league.

However, the Eagles don’t blitz much. They send extra rushers only 20% of the time, the fifth-lowest rate in the league. Their front four is very good, which allows them to control the line of scrimmage with their pass rush, but defensive coordinator Vic Fangio prefers to drop into coverage and trust his defensive line to win. While that strategy works well, it may not be the best way to beat Green Bay.

The first game between these two teams was a high-scoring affair, but I expect the rematch to be more focused on defense, especially with both quarterbacks potentially playing hurt. This game might come down to a field goal, and with kickers Jake Elliott and Brandon McManus both having strong seasons, that could give the underdog Packers a slight edge.

Prediction: Packers 19, Eagles 17

(6) Washington Commanders at (3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, 8 p.m. ET on NBC
Spread: TB -3 (50.5)

This is another rematch from Week 1. In that game, the Buccaneers easily defeated the Commanders, going up 37-14 before a late score from Jayden Daniels made the final score 37-24. The Commanders were lucky that the final margin wasn’t even bigger, as they recovered all three fumbles in that game but still got blown out.

Daniels ran the ball 16 times for 88 yards and two touchdowns in that game, which was the kind of rushing performance Washington would try to avoid as the season went on, especially with their rookie quarterback. He has improved since then. The Bucs won’t have Chris Godwin, who led all receivers in Week 1 with 83 yards and a touchdown, but they’ll have a bigger role for Bucky Irving, who was a backup to Rachaad White back in September.

What’s uncertain for the Buccaneers is who will play in the secondary. They didn’t have safeties Antoine Winfield Jr. and Jordan Whitehead, or starting corner Jamel Dean, for the crucial Week 18 game against the Saints. Second-year safety Christian Izien is on injured reserve, and late-season addition Mike Edwards got injured in the fourth quarter and didn’t return. By the end of that game, the Bucs were down to Kaevon Merriweather and Ryan Neal at safety, with Neal having played just eight defensive snaps all season before that game.

The injuries in the secondary, which have been an issue for most of the season, have led Tampa Bay to be more cautious than usual. They rank 13th in blitz rate and last in man-to-man coverage rate. Daniels has been very good attacking zone coverage this season, ranking fourth in EPA per play against zone. The Bucs don’t have enough healthy defensive backs to switch to more man-to-man coverage.

Tampa Bay can still throw the ball well. But the cornerback Washington traded for at the deadline might not be available to cover longtime rival Mike Evans. Marshon Lattimore has only played two games for the Commanders because of a hamstring injury that kept him out for a while, and it flared up again, causing him to miss the last two games. The Commanders are hopeful he can play in the postseason, but they weren’t expecting their new corner to miss so much of the second half of the season after the trade.

Evans could be a big problem for Washington if Lattimore isn’t healthy. Benjamin St-Juste has struggled with consistency, and though rookie Mike Sainristil has impressed after moving out of the slot, it’s a tough challenge for a rookie to go up against a future Hall of Famer like Evans.

On the other hand, the Commanders’ defense is solid and good at dealing with extended plays, which is where Baker Mayfield tends to excel. Washington ranks second in QBR allowed on throws where the quarterback holds the ball for four or more seconds. They are also fourth on throws made outside the pocket, an area where Mayfield often shines, as he ranks third in QBR when he gets outside, especially when plays break down. Mayfield may have to create plays from within the pocket in this game. But if Lattimore can’t play, Tampa Bay should be able to find Evans with ease.

This game will likely be close, and the deciding factor could be who plays in the secondary for either team. With the Buccaneers playing at home, I slightly lean toward them.

Prediction: Buccaneers 27, Commanders 24

Minnesota Vikings (5) at Los Angeles Rams (4)
Monday, 8 p.m. ET on ESPN/ABC/ESPN+
Spread: MIN -1 (47.5)

The Vikings could be the best wild-card team in NFL history. They are the first team to win 14 games and still end up as a wild card. While this is partly because of the 17-game schedule, they have a slightly better winning percentage than other teams with a 13-3 record as a wild card. One example is the 1999 Titans, who used the famous Music City Miracle to beat the Bills before making it to Super Bowl XXXIV and nearly defeating the Rams. (Those Titans had a home wild-card game, so the play is not called the Lake Erie Lateral.)

The Rams aren’t worried. Coach Sean McVay could have secured the 3-seed in Week 18 with a win over the Seahawks, which would have meant avoiding the Lions or Vikings in the wild-card round. However, he rested most of his first-team offense and played defensive stars like Jared Verse and Braden Fiske only in clear passing situations. The Rams came close to winning anyway, but the loss means they now have to play the Vikings instead of the Commanders.

McVay might not be too concerned because the Rams went 10-7 and won the NFC West despite facing the second-toughest schedule in the league, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index. They played the Lions tough in Week 1, with Detroit needing a last-second field goal to send the game into overtime before beating the Rams. McVay’s team then beat the Vikings in October, with Matthew Stafford throwing for 279 yards and four touchdowns.

In that game, it was also Puka Nacua’s first game back after missing six weeks with a sprained PCL, and his return has had a big impact on the Rams’ offense. He averaged 3.7 yards per route run this season, the best in the league, with only A.J. Brown and Nico Collins surpassing 3.0.

Although his absence coincided with offensive line injuries that have since been fixed, the Rams averaged 0.11 EPA per play with Nacua on the field and 0.00 EPA without him. That difference is the same as being as good as the Bucs or Eagles with Nacua, versus as bad as the Jets without him.

While Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores’ pressures can cause trouble for every team, the Rams might be able to handle those pressures well. They’re one of the best teams at blocking on the edge for screens, which can counter the Vikings’ blitzes. Stafford was the best at throwing against Cover 0 (man coverage) this season, which is important because the Vikings often use that type of defense.

The Vikings are also good at hiding their coverages, showing blitzes before the snap and then dropping into zones. Stafford is good at reading and diagnosing those coverages. He ranks second in completion percentage and sixth in EPA per play when facing disguised coverages.

One person who hasn’t handled the blitz well recently is Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold. He didn’t throw an interception in the Week 18 loss to the Lions, but it was possibly his worst performance of the season. He missed key third-down throws to T.J. Hockenson and failed to complete what looked like four different touchdowns inside the 10-yard line.

Some were overthrows, and Darnold didn’t seem willing to throw touchdowns to Jordan Addison, even when he was open. Darnold also struggled with an off-target rate of 34.2%, his second-worst rate of his career. He was hit on nearly 30% of his dropbacks and was limping by the end of the game.

Although elevating Daniel Jones to the active roster may not make a difference for the Vikings this postseason, Darnold’s performance is concerning. Any quarterback can miss a throw, but Darnold missed several big opportunities last week, and he looked different from the guy who had been playing well in December. If the Rams see this too, they could take advantage of it.

Prediction: Rams 27, Vikings 17

NFC Divisional Round

(4) Los Angeles Rams at (3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
One downside of the Rams losing in Week 18 is having to travel to Tampa to face the Bucs instead of playing this game at home. It’s also a fun reunion between Sean McVay and Baker Mayfield, who revived his career with the Rams after struggling in Carolina.

Mayfield started only four games for the Rams and was playing behind backup players because of injuries, but he did enough in two wins to catch the attention of the Buccaneers, who signed him the next year. His offensive coordinator in L.A. was Liam Coen, who left for Kentucky after the season but returned to the NFL in 2024 to be the Buccaneers’ offensive coordinator.

Mayfield could have some success if he plays against the Rams again. The Bucs use a lot of screen passes — only the Dolphins and Bears completed more screens than they did this season. The Rams struggle against screen passes, ranking 31st in EPA per play allowed against them. The Bucs, by the way, are one of the top two teams in screen defense, along with the Chargers.

L.A. also tries to confuse opposing quarterbacks with different post-snap looks, running disguised coverages at the highest rate in the league. This is not a problem for Mayfield. He leads the league in completion percentage (75%) and ranks third in QBR against disguised coverages this season.

Tampa Bay might also feel good about running the ball against the Rams. The Rams are 29th in success rate against gap-scheme runs (such as power or trap runs) this season. The Bucs are the best in the league at running these plays, averaging 5.8 yards per carry, and they ranked fourth in rushing yards per game. They’re not great at zone runs, but they don’t need to use them much against L.A.

Meanwhile, L.A. has improved its run game by getting away from the zone-running style McVay used earlier in his career, but that plays into Tampa Bay’s strengths. The Bucs have the second-best run defense against gap runs, limiting teams to just 3.1 yards per carry, the lowest in the league.

They’ve also faced fewer gap runs than any other team, which could be because of a small sample size or because they have the huge Vita Vea at defensive tackle.

I mentioned earlier that Tampa Bay uses a lot of zone defense, which will be a problem for Matthew Stafford. He ranks sixth in QBR against zone coverage this season, and his QBR jumps to fourth when Puka Nacua is on the field. The Bucs don’t have many good answers for Nacua and Cooper Kupp, and not many teams do. The Rams also use play-action passes more than most teams, which is concerning for the Bucs, who are 24th in QBR allowed and EPA per dropback against play-action passes.

This game could turn into a shootout, and it might come down to which team is healthier. Tampa Bay is already missing Chris Godwin, and they’re waiting to see about tight end Cade Otton. They also have injuries in their secondary. L.A. has also dealt with injuries, but this might be the healthiest McVay’s team has been all season, as they expect safety John Johnson to return from injured reserve this week. If the playoffs come down to injuries, that favors the Rams.

Prediction: Rams 31, Buccaneers 24

(7) Green Bay Packers at (1) Detroit Lions
Detroit should have running back David Montgomery (knee) available for the divisional round, but this might actually be a slight negative. Jahmyr Gibbs has been great in an every-down role, and the Lions performed better without Montgomery on the field this season. They averaged 0.16 EPA per snap with Montgomery on the field and 0.14 EPA per snap with him off the field. While having Montgomery back could be useful, the Lions averaged 35 points per game without him in the final three weeks of the season.

Montgomery led the Lions in yards from scrimmage during their December win over the Packers, which gave the Lions a sweep of their rivals. It was also a big game for Christian Watson, who gained 114 yards against cornerback Carlton Davis, although he lost an important fumble in the second quarter. Watson won’t play in this rematch due to an ACL injury, and Davis is also out after suffering a jaw injury last month.

While the Lions easily beat the Packers in their first game, Green Bay might feel good about how much closer the second game was. That game came down to third and fourth downs, with the Packers converting just 1 of 5 third downs and not attempting a fourth-down conversion. The Lions, on the other hand, went 4-for-5 on fourth downs, with two touchdown passes and a run that set up the game-winning field goal without allowing the Packers a chance to respond.

But even that version of the Lions from December is different from what we’ll see in two weeks. Defensive tackle Alim McNeill got hurt in the Packers game, returned the next week, and then tore his ACL. Davis played every snap, and cornerback Terrion Arnold was carted off in Week 18 with a foot injury, although reports about his chances of playing in the postseason are positive.

Defensive end Pat O’Connor, also filling in due to injuries, left the Vikings game hurt, and his calf injury could keep him out. By the time the Vikings game ended, the Lions were missing their top four pass rushers, a starting linebacker, and their top two cornerbacks. While they won the game, there were plenty of plays that could’ve been made against them. This defense allowed 31 points to the Packers, 48 points to the Bills, and 34 points to the 49ers over the last five weeks.

Can Jordan Love take advantage? He should be well-positioned to do so. The Lions have used a lot of man coverage and blitzed the most in the league since losing Aidan Hutchinson, and they did even more of this in their win over the Vikings.

Love has been good against man coverage, ranking seventh in Total QBR this season against man-to-man defense. He hasn’t been as good against the blitz, but the Lions blitzed him over 62% of the time in their last meeting, and he went 9-of-14 for 160 yards, a touchdown, and just one sack.

I also have concerns about the Lions’ ability to stop the Packers’ run game. Detroit ranked 22nd in success rate against gap runs, and that was with more depth on the defensive line. Green Bay averages the fifth-most yards per carry on gap runs, gaining even more than the Lions. The Lions’ defensive starters have had to do more as the season has gone on, which might tire them out later in the game.

I have serious doubts about Detroit’s defense. The Packers will need to find a way to pressure Jared Goff. In their two games this season, Goff was 9-of-16 for 61 yards when Green Bay pressured him, but he was nearly perfect — 41-of-47 for 367 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception — when they didn’t get pressure. Every quarterback struggles when pressured, but Goff is particularly vulnerable in those situations.

Green Bay ranked 22nd in pressure rate this season, so it seems unlikely they’ll be able to pressure Goff the way they did in their Thanksgiving Day victory.

The Packers also struggle to defend the middle of the field, which is where Goff excels. Green Bay ranked 24th in QBR allowed on throws to the middle, and Goff went 38-of-45 for 363 yards with a 10.1 completion percentage above expectation when targeting the middle against the Packers. Green Bay did get one interception, but they generally struggled against Goff’s strengths.

The Packers have been better with rookie Edgerrin Cooper at inside linebacker. After not playing much early in the season, he became an every-down player in the past two weeks after Quay Walker got injured. Cooper has been playing at a Pro Bowl level, with 13 tackles for loss, even though he’s only been on the field for about 55% of defensive snaps. Walker returned to practice this week, but I expect the Packers to use Cooper heavily in the postseason because he’s been too good to leave off the field.

Despite all these concerns, the Packers have one of the best pass defenses in the league. They ranked third in EPA per play allowed against the pass, first in QBR allowed, and they’ve forced the fourth-most turnovers. They’re also a very healthy defense, especially now that Walker and Evan Williams are back at practice. Even with two starters on injured reserve, the Packers are in good shape defensively.

It’s hard to say if the Packers can slow down the Lions, but I have even less confidence in Detroit’s ability to stop Green Bay, given their injuries.

Prediction: Packers 38, Lions 34

AFC Divisional Round

(3) Baltimore Ravens at (2) Buffalo Bills
After three first-time matchups in the wild-card round, the AFC playoffs will have rematches. The Ravens easily beat the Bills in Buffalo in September, with Lamar Jackson completing 13-of-18 passes for 156 yards and three touchdowns, including one on the ground. Derrick Henry was the star, running for 199 yards, including an 87-yard touchdown in the first quarter.

While Henry is an elite running back, it would be surprising if he could do the same against the Bills, who are fifth in success rate against the run. They’ll have better personnel to stop him, especially at linebacker. In the September game, the Bills’ linebackers were Baylon Spector, Dorian Williams, and Nicholas Morrow. Spector spent most of the second half of the season on injured reserve, Williams has been used part-time in recent weeks, and Morrow was cut and then rejoined the Bills after Spector’s injury.

The linebackers in this divisional round matchup should be Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard, which is a big upgrade for Buffalo. However, Milano is still recovering from a broken leg and biceps tear and missed a lot of time. Though Milano has played two full games this season, he’s been inconsistent, with a missed tackle rate of 33.3%. That might be a problem against Henry and Jackson.

Another issue for the Bills is that they don’t blitz much. Buffalo blitzes at the fifth-lowest rate in the league, but opposing defenses often blitz Jackson out of necessity. Jackson has been blitzed the second-highest rate of any quarterback this season. When defenses don’t blitz, Jackson often picks them apart, throwing 25 touchdown passes and only one interception against teams that drop into coverage.

In the September game, the Bills blitzed Jackson only three times on 18 pass plays, and he went 12-of-15 for 139 yards and two touchdowns against four-man rushes. The Bills can’t afford to play their usual defensive style against this version of the Ravens.

The Ravens’ win over the Bills was one of Josh Allen’s worst games of the season, but it’s not typical for him. Allen, who was sacked 14 times all season, was sacked three times in that game, including twice on exotic blitzes. The Bills went 3-for-13 on third down, their second-worst performance of the season. The Ravens’ defense was aggressive with blitzes and unique coverages, which threw Allen off. Though Allen can often escape pressure or find quick solutions, he couldn’t do either against the Ravens.

The Ravens have also been strong against scrambling quarterbacks, allowing only 10 scramble yards per game, the fourth-best in the league. Allen had just seven scramble yards in the September game, the second-lowest of his season. He’s talented enough to perform without scrambling, but if the Ravens can limit his ability to run, it takes away an important way for the Bills to gain easy yardage.

While Allen is still excellent, he might not be able to take advantage of the Ravens’ weakness in defending passes to the middle of the field. The Ravens are ranked 30th in QBR allowed on throws to the middle of the field, and although their defense has improved, this remains a problem. Allen ranks 19th in QBR on throws to the middle and fourth on throws to the outside, which is where the Ravens are strongest with cornerbacks Marlon Humphrey and rookie Nate Wiggins.

The Ravens may not have the same success they had earlier this season against Allen, but they are a tough matchup for him, and their defense has been strong lately. If Milano can’t return to form and Henry is still a force, Buffalo could be in serious trouble.

Prediction: Ravens 23, Bills 20

(5) Los Angeles Chargers at (1) Kansas City Chiefs
No team led by Jim Harbaugh will be afraid of any opponent, and the Chargers believe they can beat the Chiefs. In their first game against each other in September, the Chargers took a 10-0 lead before giving up 17 unanswered points. In the December rematch, the Chargers led late until a field goal by backup kicker Matthew Wright bounced off the uprights and in.

Could the Chiefs be rusty? Maybe. Most of their star players won’t have played for 24 days when they play in the divisional round. It didn’t seem to bother the Ravens last season, when they rested Lamar Jackson and other key players for 20 days before winning 34-10 against the Texans.

The Chiefs made it to Super Bowl LV in 2020 after resting their stars during the final week of the regular season and having a bye in the wild-card round.

One concern for L.A. is Kansas City’s new additions late in the season. Coach Andy Reid got Hollywood Brown back from a preseason shoulder injury, and he was quickly targeted eight times on 14 routes in his first game.

Then, after trying out Kingsley Suamataia and Wanya Morris at left tackle, the Chiefs moved Joe Thuney from guard and signed D.J. Humphries, who made one start before a hamstring injury.

Getting rid of the young, struggling tackles protecting Patrick Mahomes’ blind side may actually be an improvement. It’s no coincidence that Kansas City had two of its highest-scoring games this season when Brown played and Morris was benched (he did play a few snaps at right tackle when Jawaan Taylor left the Texans game).

The Chiefs will use the time off to get their replacement players more in sync. Humphries should be healthier at left tackle, and Taylor will be back at right tackle. Running back Isiah Pacheco, who has shared playing time with Kareem Hunt, should get more carries. Brown will take more snaps away from JuJu Smith-Schuster and Justin Watson. Rookie first-round pick Xavier Worthy has had two of his best games after Brown joined the team.

This isn’t great news for the Chargers, who have ranked fifth in EPA per play against three or more wide receivers but 10th when teams use only two wideouts and play bigger, something the Chiefs like to do with Travis Kelce and Noah Gray.

The Chargers’ defensive coordinator Jesse Minter uses two-high shell coverages at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL, but no team has had more success beating those looks than Mahomes. He has become very good at taking safe completions against defenses afraid of his deep throws.

The Chargers will also struggle against Kansas City coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s blitzes. Justin Herbert was great against blitzes in the regular season, ranking fourth in the NFL in QBR (89.3) when teams sent extra rushers. However, he didn’t do as well against the Chiefs. His QBR was 89.3 when blitzed by teams other than the Chiefs, but it dropped to 46.1 when Spagnuolo sent pressure.

The Chargers didn’t have Ladd McConkey for their second game against the Chiefs, but Herbert actually struggled more in the first matchup when the rookie second-rounder had five catches for 67 yards and a touchdown.

Unfortunately for the Chargers, their top receiver likes to play in the slot, and Kansas City’s top cornerback, Trent McDuffie, is good at covering that position. Most of McConkey’s success in Week 4 came when he wasn’t lined up against McDuffie. It’s likely McDuffie will cover McConkey in this rematch.

The way to attack the Chiefs is to throw deep up the sidelines against their weaker cornerbacks. This means the game could come down to Quentin Johnston or Joshua Palmer, who is dealing with a foot injury and may not play. Although Johnston had his best game ever in Week 18 with 13 catches for 186 yards, this feels like a game where one key drop could cost the Chargers the win.

Prediction: Chiefs 27, Chargers 21

AFC Championship Game

(3) Baltimore Ravens at (1) Kansas City Chiefs
What a great piece of symmetry! The AFC Championship Game is a rematch of the first game of the season, when the Ravens probably played better than the Chiefs but lost after failing to score in the red zone. In that game, they went 1-for-4 in the red zone, and the last missed chance came down to Isaiah Likely’s shoe size on the final play.

This is also a repeat of last season’s AFC Championship Game, where the Ravens only got into the red zone once and didn’t score after Zay Flowers fumbled at the 1-yard line.

In two games, the Ravens have scored just one touchdown on five trips to the red zone. What makes this so strange is that the Ravens have had the best red zone offense in the league over the last two seasons, converting nearly 70% of their opportunities against all other teams.

There’s only a 3% chance that a team with such a high red zone success rate would go 1-for-5, showing how good Kansas City is and how random small samples can be. If Likely’s foot were one size smaller and Flowers had jumped just a little higher into the end zone, the Ravens would’ve been 3-for-5, and maybe they would’ve won both of those games.

It’s hard to believe the Ravens will keep failing so much in the red zone against Kansas City, especially with a full season of Derrick Henry added to the team. And although Likely didn’t have a breakout season after his career-high 111 receiving yards in Week 1, the Chiefs gave up the most yards (1,191) and the highest yards per attempt (8.8) to tight ends in 2024.

The Ravens used a lot of 12-personnel (two tight ends) and had a 55% success rate, compared to 43% when using 11-personnel (one tight end). It’s fair to say Kansas City could have trouble stopping Likely and Mark Andrews together.

In the season opener, it felt like Lamar Jackson had the weight of the AFC Championship loss from last year on his shoulders. The reigning MVP ran the ball on 16 designed runs and scrambles, his biggest rushing workload of the season by far. That led to 122 rushing yards and seven first downs, and the Ravens could take a similar approach in the playoffs. Only two teams allowed more yards on scrambles than the blitz-happy Chiefs this season.

The biggest challenge for the Ravens is that the Chiefs are very good at preventing passes in Jackson’s usual range. He’s been great throughout his career at hitting intermediate throws (between 11 to 20 yards), especially on digs and crossers. Kansas City knows how to stop those passes, as they allowed only 93 attempts in that range, the third fewest of any defense.

Another advantage for Kansas City is defensive tackle Chris Jones, who will likely cause problems for the Ravens’ guards, Patrick Mekari and Daniel Faalele.

These are the weakest spots on Baltimore’s offensive line. Jackson is great at moving around the pocket and escaping pressure, but Jones, with 80.5 career sacks, is not an average pass rusher. He has taken over playoff games before, and he’s someone the Ravens have to watch out for.

On the other side, I’m not sure if the Ravens can stop Patrick Mahomes. They didn’t blitz often this season, instead using sim pressures (where they drop seven players into coverage and try to create an overload on one side). Baltimore used sim pressures on a league-high 3.1% of snaps and blitzed the sixth-lowest amount. Mahomes has been the NFL’s best quarterback against the blitz, which discourages teams from sending extra rushers his way.

But I’m not sure if sim pressures will work either. Mahomes is too good at recognizing these types of defenses, and he’s hard to sack when there’s a free rusher. Plus, these pressures can open up opportunities for him to escape and run.

The place where teams can attack the Ravens is the middle of the field, where they allowed an 87.1 QBR, ranked 30th in the league this season. That’s where Mahomes goes to move the ball. Jared Goff was the only quarterback who threw for more first downs in that area than Mahomes did in the regular season.

It’s also where Travis Kelce finds soft spots in defenses, where DeAndre Hopkins can get open on slants, and where Mahomes finds his best solutions as a scrambler. While the Ravens improved after changes at linebacker and safety, the Chiefs can still attack them in the middle.

Baltimore does match up well on offense against things Kansas City doesn’t do well, and the Ravens have been much better on defense in the past month, making them a scary complete team. They also likely won’t struggle as much in the red zone going forward. But the Chiefs have home-field advantage, and they have Mahomes and Jones. The Ravens may not have the right defenders to keep the Chiefs from scoring.

Prediction: Chiefs 24, Ravens 20

NFC Championship Game

(7) Green Bay Packers at (4) Los Angeles Rams
The Rams probably didn’t expect to host the NFC Championship Game, but all three top seeds have been eliminated, which puts them in this situation. This seems unlikely, but the Rams were in a similar spot in the 2021 NFC Championship Game, when they were the 4-seed. They ended up hosting the 6-seed 49ers, who had beaten the 1-seed Packers and the 3-seed Cowboys in the first two rounds.

These teams played in Week 5, and the Packers won 24-19. However, the Rams didn’t have star wide receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp for that game. One of their starting guards was Logan Bruss, who finished the season with the Titans. They also didn’t have tight end Tyler Higbee, who returned to the team later in the season. For the Packers, they didn’t have wide receiver Christian Watson or cornerback Jaire Alexander available, and Romeo Doubs was suspended, meaning Malik Heath had to start at receiver.

Even without Kupp and Nacua, Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford tried his best against the league’s best downfield pass defense. He went 1-of-7 for 24 yards with an interception. Running back Kyren Williams did well, turning 22 carries into 102 yards and a touchdown, with a 59% success rate, but the Rams only had two scoring drives. A pick-six on a Jordan Love throw to avoid a safety made the score closer, but it’s fair to say the Rams will expect to do more on offense with Kupp and Nacua this time.

Will the Rams change up their personnel? Even without Kupp and Nacua in the first game, they stuck with 11 personnel (one tight end, one running back) for almost 95% of their offensive plays, where coach Sean McVay has typically felt comfortable. He had tried using more 12 personnel (two tight ends) earlier in the season, but it didn’t last. They returned to 11 personnel in games against the Vikings and Patriots, and in the last seven games, they used 11 personnel about 87% of the time.

McVay’s offense was more successful in 11 personnel than in 12, so changing things just for the sake of it might not help. However, the Packers had the best defense against 11 personnel and ranked 25th against 12 personnel. So, with Higbee back, using more 12 personnel against Green Bay might be a good idea.

On defense, Rams defensive coordinator Chris Shula might want to use more blitzes against quarterback Jordan Love in the rematch. Love was 11-of-15 for 217 yards with two touchdowns when not blitzed, but he was only 4-of-11 for 7 yards with a pick and seven pressures when the Rams blitzed him. Los Angeles already blitzed him at its second-highest rate of the season, so it’s unlikely they could blitz more, but because Love struggled against the blitz, it might be worth trying again to see if he can improve.

If the blitz doesn’t work, the Rams may have a tough time. They’ve managed to survive on defense by being lucky with their red zone performance. They rank 30th in EPA per snap outside the red zone, but that improves to fifth when teams are inside the 20. They’ve allowed touchdowns on 50% of opposing trips inside the 20, which is the fifth-best rate in the league.

It’s hard to rely on that in the postseason. Take the 2023 Buccaneers, for example, who were 22nd in EPA per play outside the red zone and second inside the 20 during the regular season.

The Lions went 3-for-4 in the red zone against them in the divisional round and knocked them out. A defense that bends but doesn’t break isn’t sustainable. If a defense isn’t good outside the red zone but performs well inside it, it gets figured out eventually.

While I’ll give the Rams some credit for being better with Kupp and Nacua, this is not a close matchup by advanced metrics. DVOA ranked the Packers as the third-best team in the league on a play-by-play basis, just ahead of the Bills and Eagles.

The Rams were ranked 17th, behind the Cardinals and Bengals. Even if the Rams are better with their two star wideouts, the Packers are the more talented team. And although the Rams are at home, it’s easy to imagine many Packers fans traveling to Los Angeles for this game. They won’t regret the trip.

Prediction: Packers 27, Rams 16

With the NFL playoffs finally here, it’s time for my yearly preview. If you don’t have time to watch the postseason this month and the Super Bowl in February, this article will make it simple: I will explain who will win each of the 13 playoff games and why. You won’t need to tune in.

That’s a small exaggeration. Just one wrong prediction can mess up the whole bracket, and I will consider myself lucky if I go 3-for-3 on the first Saturday of wild-card weekend.

No amount of preparation or research matters if something unexpected happens, like a quarterback injuring his UCL in the first half, like Brock Purdy did in the NFC Championship Game two years ago, or if the weather causes trouble for a team, like it did for the Dolphins in Kansas City last year. One bad call or some bad luck with fumbles can affect a game more than a team’s actual performance.

Instead, think of this as a guide to the factors that could decide games, based on how the teams played during the regular season. What were their strengths and weaknesses? How do they match up? If they already played each other earlier in 2024, what parts of that game might show up again? Is there something about their team or strategy that might be different now?

For example, last season, the Texans played the Browns just three weeks after Cleveland won 36-22. Despite struggling with a lot of interceptions by Joe Flacco, the Browns were doing well, but their defense got weaker after Myles Garrett got hurt, and their high turnover rate covered it up. When they played again, the Texans won 45-14 in January.

Here’s the problem: I tend to stick to my predictions too much. Before last season, I said the Chiefs would beat the Cowboys in the Super Bowl, and when both teams made the playoffs, I stuck with that prediction. You probably know how that turned out, both good and bad.

Both of the teams from my preseason Super Bowl prediction are in the 2024 playoffs, and I might just stick with them again in this preview. It’s just going to take a few upsets along the way. Let’s start with the AFC before moving to what seems like a wide-open NFC:

AFC Wild-Card Weekend

(7) Denver Broncos at (2) Buffalo Bills
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on CBS
Spread: BUF -8.5 (46.5)

Broncos fans are excited about rookie quarterback Bo Nix after a nearly perfect game against the Chiefs. Kansas City benched its top seven defenders, and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo only blitzed Nix six times. But when a quarterback goes 26-of-29 for 321 yards with four touchdowns and runs seven times for 47 yards, it’s hard to find many flaws in his performance. Nix’s game was the seventh-best of the season by Total QBR (97.3).

Nix won’t have that kind of game against the Bills, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he succeeds with some early throws. The Broncos use screens and short passes to make things easier for Nix, and the Bills have struggled to stop those types of plays.

Buffalo has allowed 49.8% of passes within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage to be successful, the seventh-worst rate in the league. The Bills are good at taking away big plays and forcing offenses to slowly move down the field, which Broncos coach Sean Payton is happy to do with his quarterback.

However, I’m not sure the Broncos’ strong defense will be enough against Josh Allen and the Bills. Denver plays man-to-man defense the second-most in the league (56.3%), and that plays right into Allen’s strength.

Twenty-two of his 28 touchdown passes have come against man coverage this season, and when defensive backs are matched up with receivers, they can’t help out if Allen takes off running. While Pat Surtain II is great at covering any receiver, the Bills don’t have one main wide receiver for Surtain to focus on. They set an NFL record this season with 13 players catching touchdowns.

The Broncos rely on their pass rush, ranking 17th in QBR allowed when their pressure doesn’t reach the quarterback. But Allen is great at dealing with pressure, taking sacks at the lowest rate in the league. Most quarterbacks see their QBR drop nearly 34 points when pressured, but Allen’s QBR is more than 12 points higher when he faces pressure. He finished with the highest QBR under pressure in a season since ESPN started tracking the stat in 2009 (85.3).

The Lions’ defense is very similar to the Broncos’ defense in style, and Allen destroyed Detroit in mid-December by making them play zone coverage and extending plays to find open receivers. When the Lions tried to blitz, Allen hurt them with his legs. I expect more of the same here, with Allen targeting Riley Moss, P.J. Locke, and Justin Strnad. It will be tough for Nix to keep up with Allen, who could be the MVP.

Prediction: Bills 34, Broncos 21

(6) Pittsburgh Steelers at (3) Baltimore Ravens
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET on Prime Video
Spread: BAL -9.5 (43.5)

The Pittsburgh offense has been struggling. Over the last month, the Steelers rank 31st in expected points added (EPA) per play and 29th in QBR. The running game has been okay, ranking eighth in success rate on the ground, but the big plays they had earlier in the season are no longer happening. They had chances to make deep passes against the Bengals in Week 18, but George Pickens had drops that ruined those opportunities.

During this same time, the Ravens have become the best defense in the league. They have the number-one EPA per play allowed in the last month of the season, after switching out safety Marcus Williams and linebacker Trenton Simpson for Ar’Darius Washington and Malik Harrison. Despite blitzing less than most teams, the Ravens’ pass rush ranks tied for fourth in sack rate (7.7%). This is not a good matchup for Pittsburgh.

The change from Williams to Washington has strengthened Baltimore’s pass defense, especially against deep passes, where Russell Wilson is trying to find success in his career. With Williams on the field, the Ravens allowed a 96.0 QBR on deep passes, ranking 28th. With Washington, that has improved by 30 points, now ranking fifth in the league.

The Steelers will likely not win if they need to score 28 points. They’ll need their defense and special teams to help out, but their defense has not created many big plays in recent weeks.

During their 10-3 start, the Steelers averaged 2.2 takeaways per game, with seven games forcing three turnovers. During their four-game losing streak, they’ve only forced five takeaways, with two of those coming on special teams. For Pittsburgh to win, they need to force at least two turnovers, which is possible because of playmakers like T.J. Watt.

The Ravens won’t have their top receiver, Zay Flowers, on Saturday due to a knee injury. Lamar Jackson has posted a 75.2 QBR on almost 100 dropbacks without Flowers this season, and I wonder if his absence will help the offense against Pittsburgh. Baltimore has shifted away from using three wide receivers (11 personnel) and used more groupings with two tight ends or two running backs this season. They were in three-wide sets 28% of the time in 2024, down from 47% last year.

With Flowers out, there is even less reason to use three wideouts, and the Steelers have struggled more against heavier sets. Pittsburgh is good at rushing the passer, but when teams use three or more wideouts, the Steelers rank second in the NFL in EPA per snap on defense. With two or fewer wide receivers, they drop to 19th.

The Steelers have been tough for Jackson over the years, with the two-time MVP posting a 28.9 QBR against them, compared to a 70.6 QBR against other teams. Jackson’s playoff struggles are well-known, but this time he has Derrick Henry to help take pressure off. Henry ran for 162 yards when the Ravens beat the Steelers in Week 16 to take control of the AFC North. I expect Henry to be the main focus again in a tough Baltimore win.

Prediction: Ravens 20, Steelers 9

(5) Los Angeles Chargers at (4) Houston Texans
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET on CBS
Spread: LAC -3 (42.5)

Even though the Texans are division champions and will host the Chargers, Jim Harbaugh’s team is a three-point favorite. Houston went 1-5 against playoff teams and was outscored by an average of 11 points in those games. Their only win against a playoff team was against Buffalo. Los Angeles, on the other hand, faced what ESPN’s Football Power Index considers the easiest regular-season schedule of any team.

This isn’t a good matchup for either team on offense. Starting with the Texans, they have struggled all season and are likely the most disappointing offense in the league. Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik has had trouble getting the offense going on early downs, which has left C.J. Stroud in long third-down situations. The Texans have faced third-and-9 or longer 91 times this season, the second-most in the league. The NFL converts just over 20% of those situations.

Relying on third-down conversions is not a good plan against any team, especially not against Los Angeles, which leads the league in defensive success rate on third downs this season. The Texans have also struggled in the red zone, ranking 26th in touchdown rate. The Chargers have prevented touchdowns on 55% of their red zone possessions, the best rate in the NFL.

The Chargers’ defense, under new coordinator Jesse Minter, relies heavily on zone coverages, using them at the fourth-highest rate in the league. Stroud has struggled against zone defenses this season, ranking 27th in QBR against them, the worst of any starting quarterback in the playoffs.

Stroud does better against man coverage, but Los Angeles is less likely to use man coverage after losing Elijah Molden to injured reserve. Asante Samuel Jr. (shoulder) has also missed most of the season, but the Chargers have managed with contributions from Tarheeb Still and Cam Hart. They also recently got back safety Alohi Gilman from injured reserve. Stroud will need to hit big plays against zone coverage if he wants to make this game competitive.

On the Chargers’ side, Justin Herbert has been good at protecting the football this season, but his lower interception rate has led to more sacks. He has been sacked 7.7% of the time on dropbacks and 24.1% of the time when pressured, both below the league average.

The Texans have strong edge rushers in Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr., but the Chargers’ offensive tackles, Rashawn Slater and rookie Joe Alt, have been excellent. The middle of the line could be the key, as Denico Autry has not looked like his usual self after serving a PED suspension and missing Week 18 with a knee injury.

Herbert has had the most success throwing to slot receivers, with a QBR of 89.4, ranking fourth. Houston has had the best defense against slot receivers this season, but their top two defenders, Jalen Pitre and Jimmie Ward, are both injured and out for the postseason. The logical matchup would be to put Derek Stingley Jr. on Los Angeles’ top wideout Ladd McConkey, but Stingley has only played 12 snaps in the slot this season. He has two interceptions in those snaps, both against the Dolphins, but he is more comfortable outside.

McConkey’s play in the slot could make the difference in this game. The Texans rely heavily on their stars, like Nico Collins, but they don’t match up as well with the Chargers outside of him. If the Chargers’ tackles can hold their ground against Hunter and Anderson, it might be enough for Los Angeles to win.

Prediction: Chargers 23, Texans 17

Super Bowl LIX

(7) Green Bay Packers vs. (1) Kansas City Chiefs
This game has a lot of interesting storylines. Kansas City is aiming for its third straight title. It’s also a rematch from the very first Super Bowl. Andy Reid, who might be in his last game as a head coach, is facing the team where he started his coaching career in the 1990s as a tight ends coach.

Jordan Love will get a chance to get revenge on the team that beat him in his first career start, where he went 19-of-34 for 190 yards in a 13-7 loss in 2021. The Chiefs are the higher seed and have the better record, but according to metrics like DVOA and ESPN’s FPI, the Packers were the better team during the season.

Even so, I believe the Chiefs will win easily. This is a tough matchup for the Packers because their weaknesses match the Chiefs’ strengths, and the Chiefs’ weaknesses match the Packers’ strengths.

I’ve mentioned Love’s struggles with the blitz this season. Well, guess who likes to blitz? Chiefs coordinator Steve Spagnuolo loves bringing heavy blitzes, and he will have two weeks to prepare new pressures for Love and head coach Matt LaFleur. Love is a talented player, and the Chiefs don’t have the same level of defense as they did last year with L’Jarius Sneed, but the best way to attack Kansas City is by throwing deep down the sidelines. The player best suited for that role, Christian Watson, tore his ACL in Week 18.

Another way to attack the Chiefs is through the run game. The Packers do run the ball a lot, but Josh Jacobs hasn’t been as effective as some might think. He’s great at breaking tackles, and some of his best runs stand out in memory, but he has fumbled four times and often gets stopped for losses or minimal gains, which puts the Packers in difficult situations.

His success rate is below average, and he ranked 25th out of 31 running backs by EPA per rush attempt. The Packers actually performed better when Jacobs was off the field (0.10) compared to when he was on it (0.06). If they can’t get Jacobs going on early downs, they’ll end up in third-and-long situations, which is where Spagnuolo can really pressure Love with blitzes.

On the other hand, while the Packers are excellent at preventing big plays, teams that are patient and can steadily move the ball down the field tend to succeed against them. Even though Green Bay ranks fourth in EPA per play allowed, they are 21st in success rate on defense. The type of team the Packers don’t want to face is one that can stay on schedule, take what’s available, and avoid trying to make big, explosive plays.

That’s the kind of offense the Chiefs run, which ranks sixth in success rate and 11th in EPA per play. The Packers can limit big plays and are good at handling scramble situations, which should slow down Patrick Mahomes’ ability to improvise, but Mahomes is still very capable of picking apart a defense by moving the chains on third downs and throwing short passes for six yards at a time. What might seem like an unsustainable way of moving the ball for other teams is a regular trend for the Chiefs.

There are ways the Packers could win, of course. They have the best defense in the league when they can pressure the quarterback, and even with D.J. Humphries at left tackle, the Chiefs might not feel fully comfortable with Mahomes’ blindside. Jacobs is a talented player and could break off some big runs.

The Packers have enough skilled receivers to create mismatches against Christian Roland-Wallace or Joshua Williams in the Chiefs’ secondary, and Love is capable of identifying and attacking those mismatches. Also, while Andy Reid is a great game planner, LaFleur might be just as good. What LaFleur did to adjust the offense after Love’s early-season knee injury was some of the best coaching all season.

All of this is true, but I’ve picked the Chiefs to win the past two seasons. I’m not stopping now.

Prediction: Chiefs 27, Packers 13