Even if you feel like taking a break from football, the league won’t let you rest for long after the Super Bowl. The new year kicks off on March 12, bringing the free-agent signing period that will keep us busy until the draft. And with so many players available, where some of them end up could change the future of entire teams.
Take Miami’s passing game, for instance.
Changing your social media picture to match a wide receiver who forced his way out of town is a bold move. But after a disappointing season, I can understand Tyreek Hill’s frustration.
Last year, Hill was on track for 2,000 yards until an ankle injury hurt his regular season and limited him in the playoffs. He finished third in targets among all wide receivers and had his fourth consecutive 1,000-yard season. But in 2024, Hill had one of his worst seasons as a pro.
Receiving Yards: 959, 3rd-fewest
Yards per Route Run: 1.75, Career-low
Receiving Touchdowns: 6, Tied for Career-low
Some of this drop-off can be attributed to quarterback play. Tua Tagovailoa missed six games, and the Dolphins scored 20 points or fewer in every game without him. But even after Tua returned, Hill barely stood out as the top wide receiver.
Jonnu Smith (20.4% target share) and De’Von Achane (17.9%) stepped up in the receiving roles Miami needed, while their running game struggled (ranked 31st in EPA per Rush). Even worse for fantasy, both had more red-zone catches than Hill. Hill’s situation is a good example of how we need to adjust our expectations.
To be fair, Hill’s agent has been working to manage the situation. The star wide receiver is just frustrated. But at the end of the day, he remains committed to Miami. This comes after a recording of Hill “quitting” during a game circulated on social media. At least Hill’s camp and the Dolphins are trying to repair the relationship. Still, there’s some uncertainty as we head into the offseason.
Fantasy production depends on both talent and situation. In 2023, Hill had both, with 3.82 yards per route run on 167 targets. He delivered in both real life and fantasy. But as Hill gets older, any potential new situation should be carefully considered before placing him as an early-round pick.
Now, let’s look at another receiver in a similar situation.
If Tee Higgins ends up leaving the Bengals, he’ll leave Paycor Stadium as a star. Despite missing five games, Higgins set career highs in targets (9.1), receptions (6.1), and total touchdowns (10). But Higgins wasn’t just the third option by chance. Joe Burrow noticed Higgins’ absences during the season.
Passing Yards per Game: 267.0 (without Higgins), 298.6 (with Higgins)
EPA per Dropback: 0.07, 0.19
Yards per Drive: 33.8, 35.1
Luckily for the Bengals, Burrow has made it clear he wants to keep the core group together. Higgins now shares an agent with Ja’Marr Chase, and everything seems to be falling into place for Cincinnati to make another championship run. However, teams in need of a wide receiver, like the Patriots or Commanders, might have seen Week 18 as the last time we’ll see this elite trio.
On the other hand, I think this running back in L.A. will stick around for at least another year.
Who else doubted J.K. Dobbins’ potential after yet another season-ending injury?
I did, too.
I thought the Chargers would focus on their running game with coach John Harbaugh bringing in Greg Roman as offensive coordinator. This kind of system would naturally lead to a lot of carries for someone, so I passed on Dobbins, who had torn his Achilles tendon the year before, and instead picked Kimani Vidal and Gus Edwards.
Dobbins made me regret that decision.
Explosive Rush Rate: 9.2%, 9th
Forced Missed Tackle Rate: 17.2%, 23rd
Adjusted Yards After Contact per Attempt: 3.2, 25th
Dobbins’ explosive rush rate is impressive. In 2022, he posted a 19.6% forced missed tackle rate for the Ravens. So, it wasn’t surprising to see him keep his balance and gain yards after contact. However, his breakaway speed seemed to be slowing down while he was still in Baltimore.
Despite that, he had more runs of 10 yards or more than Bijan Robinson (2.1 to 2.0) on a per-game basis. Even after spending time on injured reserve, Dobbins still set new milestones for rushing yards and ranked as a top-five pass-blocking running back, according to PFF.
Drafting RBs in 2025
If you focused on running backs early in your draft, you were probably the envy of your league. Running backs really mattered this year, with two players rushing for more than 1,900 yards, marking the only time in NFL history this has happened. Still, it’s important to understand why before we head into the 2025 draft. Ted Nguyen from The Athletic pointed out some reasons for this change, and a few of his points are worth noting:
From 2016 to 2021, defenses used nickel (five defensive backs) 57% of the time. From 2022 to 2024, that number went up to 64%.
We don’t have data on two-high safety usage before 2019, but it’s been rising each year and is at its highest this season. This shift in defensive schemes is largely due to the popularity of Vic Fangio’s and Mike Macdonald’s systems.
It’s great to see good teams adjust to defensive trends, and it’s good when coaches find ways to counteract them. But it’s not like this trend has taken over the league.
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Running backs, in general, averaged 21.7 carries per game this year, which is about the same as last year (21.6) and the year before (21.8). There hasn’t been much change in the number of attempts, but what has changed is how effective those runs are. The EPA (Expected Points Added) per rush has improved to -0.06, up from -0.10 in the previous three years.
The explosive rush rate has also gone up from 6.8% to 7.6%. For some teams, these adjustments worked really well. As a result, early mock drafts are predicting that we’ll see a similar level of rushing performance next year, with 10 running backs being picked in the first two rounds. However, I’m still not fully ready to invest in the position with my high picks.
Number of top-24 RBs with a non-early-round ADP: 7 (2024), 9 (2023), 7 (2022)
Number of top-24 RBs with at least a 10.0% target share: 12, 13, 10
Number of top-24 RBs with at least 50.0% of their team’s carries: 17, 12, 15
The last few seasons have shown that we can find good value later in the draft. Sometimes a split backfield turns into one lead rusher. As the season progresses, we often see a coach decide to make one player the starter. Finding out who will get the most touches in any offense has been key to filling your RB spots in fantasy. So, instead of following the crowd, compare each running back to players at other positions before drafting them.
Bounceback Offenses to Target
I usually take a top-down approach when drafting players. For example, I called the Lions “America’s team” in Week 7, and they ended the year as the highest-scoring team in the league (32.4 points per game). More points mean more fantasy options. So, I tend to favor players on better teams.
But I know that things change from year to year. If I had to pick a team that could improve in 2025, I’d start with the Panthers.
If Saquon Barkley’s “Backwards Hurdle” was the top moment of the season, Bryce Young’s “no-look touchdown” celebration would be a close second. Think about where Young was at the start of the year. He didn’t even throw a touchdown for the Panthers until the end of October. But after the Panthers gave him the starting job back, it was like he was a different player, almost like he had returned from college.
Pressure-to-Sack Ratio (since Week 8): 5th
Completion Percentage Over Expected: 13th
EPA per Dropback: 15th
Importantly, Young and head coach Dave Canales have shown that their offense can work. Since Young returned as the starter, the Panthers are scoring 23.1 points per game, just behind the Vikings.
So, if we have more confidence in the passing game, we can start looking at their skill players for our 2025 fantasy rosters. As Adam Thielen thinks about retirement, Jalen Coker could be a sleeper pick for 2025. Coker was the only other Panthers receiver with a slot snap rate above 50%, ranked second in explosive play rate, and would take over Thielen’s role if Thielen retires.
Both Coker and Young should be late-round favorites, but the Falcons also made a case for fantasy managers to keep an eye on them this offseason.
The late-season quarterback change meant the Falcons missed the playoffs, but I don’t blame Michael Penix Jr. for that. He threw another unlucky interception, which led to Young’s game-tying touchdown just a few plays later. However, Atlanta ran more plays (77) and had the most dropbacks (40) in a game since Week 13. This is a small sample, but the takeaway for 2025 is simple: the Falcons might be a team to watch.
Bonus: Drake London Should Be in the Top 12 WR Discussion
Drake London doesn’t need to be a WR5 or have first-round value. However, averaging 15.5 targets per game is impressive. Reaching 3.81 yards per route run (YPRR) is also something we should notice. While many will focus on Bijan Robinson as the top player benefiting from Penix’s first full season as the starter, the value on London in the draft will be the smarter move this summer.
