Brothers and head coaches are the main story on Monday night with the much-anticipated “HarBowl” in Los Angeles.
For the first time since Super Bowl XLVII nearly 12 years ago, the Harbaugh brothers face each other again as John leads his Baltimore Ravens (7-4) into California to challenge the Chargers (7-3).
Both teams are competing for a playoff spot in the AFC, and this game is important for the wildcard race. Whether they win or lose, both teams are in good shape for a playoff spot. However, the game could serve as a potential tiebreaker for seeding, as they fight for the No. 5 seed and the first wildcard position.
At the moment, no team on the playoff bubble has better than a 20% chance of making the playoffs, so a loss in this game doesn’t necessarily end the playoff hopes for either team.
–Pressure is low on Monday night
The Ravens are currently the No. 6 seed in the playoff standings, just one spot behind the Chargers.
The Chargers have played one fewer game due to a bye week in Week 5. Right now, none of the nine teams outside the AFC playoff picture have more than six wins this season.
Even if either team loses on Monday night, they still have an 85% or better chance of making the playoffs.
These circumstances should allow both teams to play without feeling too much pressure.
The Ravens already have one of the top offenses in the league, ranking first in the FTN Fantasy Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) metric. But their defense has been a weak point, ranking 25th in allowing 362 yards per game.
–Prop Stop: RBs raised by Ravens
The Ravens have allowed over 320 passing yards five times in 11 games. Their defense struggles on third downs, and when they are on the field for more than 65 plays, they can wear down. This gives opposing teams the chance to grind out long drives, which hurts the Ravens’ secondary in the second half.
A strong running game led by former Ravens players J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, now with the Chargers, will force Baltimore’s defense to focus on stopping the run. The Chargers average 121.6 rushing yards per game, which will challenge the Ravens’ defense.
However, the Ravens’ secondary struggles even more when they have to bring a safety closer to the line to stop the run. This opens the door for big plays in the passing game.
Quarterback Justin Herbert has thrown six touchdown passes this season on plays over 25 yards. He excels with play-action, having passed for over 700 yards and three touchdowns off run fakes since Week 6, the most in the NFL.
Expect Herbert to have another strong game, with a chance to go over 300 passing yards for the second time this season.
Prop pick: Herbert over 300 passing yards (+220, Fan Duel)
–Chargers can hurt Ravens through the air
According to Pro Football Focus, the Ravens’ secondary has the lowest grade of all three levels of their defense (63.0). They also allow the second-most explosive passing plays of 20 or more yards (50) in the league.
Because of this, the Chargers have a good chance to attack the Ravens through the air. Justin Herbert is known for pushing the ball downfield.
Herbert ranks ninth in intended air yards, averaging 8.6 yards per attempt. This stat shows the average distance of his passes from behind the line of scrimmage, even before reaching the receiver.
The Chargers don’t rely much on short, quick passes, and Herbert has been very accurate this season, with only one interception.
Although the Chargers prefer a more controlled offense, they can also keep up in high-scoring games. They proved this last week in a 34-27 win over the Bengals, even though Herbert only completed 17 of 36 passes for 297 yards. This shows how aggressive the Chargers’ offense can be, which could be effective against the Ravens’ pass defense.
The Chargers’ offense is worth watching because they have a strong chance to score points — teams have been scoring on the Ravens this season. The Chargers’ team total for points is set at 23.5 at DraftKings, and I believe they can exceed that.
Pick: Chargers team total over 23.5 (-125)
