A Week 14 game between the Bengals and Cowboys seemed interesting when the schedule was first announced.
Few expected these teams to be near the bottom of the playoff race. According to NFL.com’s playoff predictor, Cincinnati (4-8) and Dallas (5-7) have only a 2% chance of making the playoffs.
With their slim playoff chances, both teams’ defenses could be weak, setting the stage for a high-scoring game, which explains the total of 49.5 points.
The Bengals have a better offense and could be in a better position if not for some bad luck. Here’s why the Bengals might get off to a fast start on Monday night:
Joe Burrow has been exceptional According to TeamRankings, the Bengals have had the second-worst luck this season, suggesting that they could have had about 2.4 more wins with a little better fortune.
Burrow has played at an elite level, leading the league with 30 touchdowns and only five interceptions. His performance has been so good that he ranks second in Total QBR with a 74.2 rating. It’s rare to see a quarterback with such a high rating on a team with a losing record.
It’s also important to mention that Burrow has played without one of his top receivers, Tee Higgins, for five games. Now that Higgins is back, the Bengals’ offense should improve.
Prop Play The game will feature two top receivers: CeeDee Lamb from Dallas and Ja’Marr Chase from Cincinnati. Lamb had some injury concerns but is ready to play against a Bengals defense that lacks a true No. 1 cornerback. He will be targeted early, and a good bet is for Lamb to have two or more catches on the first drive (+350).
While there are many factors at play, both teams will likely gain a lot of yards, making a two-player prop bet on Lamb and Chase a good choice.
Prop pick: CeeDee Lamb 70+ receiving yards; Ja’Marr Chase 90+ receiving yards (+285, FanDuel)
Bengals’ offense is key to their success Due to Burrow’s strong performances, the Bengals rely on him to lead the offense. Cincinnati has the fourth-highest pass-play rate (64.3%) in the league, mainly because their defense is very weak.
The Bengals’ defense is the fourth-worst by DVOA, especially when it comes to defending the pass. The Cowboys will look to exploit this, especially after winning two games in a row to break a five-game losing streak.
Dallas also has the third-highest pass-play rate (64.9%), so both teams will likely focus on the air game. While Cowboys backup quarterback Cooper Rush has played better recently, he’s no match for Burrow.
The Bengals’ defense has been poor, so they can’t afford to take their foot off the gas on offense. They should have success against a Cowboys team that struggles to stop opponents in the red zone, allowing touchdowns on a league-worst 76.9% of red zone trips.
Cincinnati also has the second-best red zone offense (71%), so the Cowboys’ defense could be in for a long night.
Another key stat: The Cowboys’ defense allows an average of 20.7 points in the first half against visiting teams, making the Bengals’ first-half team total of 13.5 points a good bet.
Best Bet: Bengals 1st half team total over 13.5 (-118 at DraftKings)
