The Week 14 game between the Bengals and Cowboys caught attention when the schedule was first released. At that time, not many expected these teams to be so far down the playoff race.
Cincinnati (4-8) and Dallas (5-7) have only a 2% chance of making the playoffs, according to NFL.com’s playoff predictor. Given their poor chances, both teams’ defenses could be vulnerable in this matchup. As a result, it’s expected that the offenses will have a good game, with the total set at 49.5.
The Bengals have a stronger offense and could be in a better position if not for some bad luck. We’ll look at why bettors should expect Cincinnati to start strong on Monday night.
– Joe Burrow’s Performance
According to TeamRankings, the Jets (-2.7) have had worse luck than the Bengals (-2.4). This suggests that with a little more luck, Cincinnati could have won two or three more games.
Burrow has been playing at a high level, leading the league with 30 touchdowns and only five interceptions. He also ranks second in Total QBR with a 74.2, which is impressive considering his team’s record.
Even though one of his top wide receivers, Tee Higgins, missed five games, Burrow has still put up great numbers. Now that Higgins is back, it should boost Cincinnati’s offense.
– Prop Play
This game will focus on the wide receivers, especially CeeDee Lamb for Dallas and Ja’Marr Chase for Cincinnati.
Lamb missed some practice time but will be active and will be targeted early. Against a Bengals defense with no clear No. 1 cornerback, Lamb is a good pick for two-plus catches on the first drive (+350).
However, due to the unpredictable play of backup quarterback Cooper Rush, we’re holding off on this early bet. Both offenses are expected to rack up yards and throw the ball a lot, so the two-player prop for these wide receivers is a solid option.
Prop pick: CeeDee Lamb alternate receiving yards, 70-plus; Ja’Marr Chase alternate receiving yards, 90-plus (+285, FanDuel)
– Bengals’ Offense is Their Best Defense
Given Burrow’s strong play, the Bengals will rely heavily on him to run their offense. Cincinnati has the fourth-highest pass-play rate (64.3%) because their defense struggles to stop teams.
In fact, the Bengals have the fourth-worst defense in the league, especially when it comes to defending the pass. This is something the Cowboys will try to exploit, especially after their recent back-to-back wins.
Dallas also has the third-highest pass-play rate (64.9%), so both teams are likely to focus on passing. While Cooper Rush, the Cowboys’ backup quarterback, has improved in recent games, Burrow is on another level.
Because of their weak defense, the Bengals can’t afford to take a break on offense. They should find success against a Dallas team that allows opponents to score touchdowns on 76.9% of red-zone trips, the worst in the league. Cincinnati, with the second-best red-zone offense (71%), will likely take advantage of this.
One key stat stands out: the Cowboys give up an average of 20.7 first-half points per game at home. This makes the Bengals’ first-half team total of 13.5 points a good bet for Monday night.
Best Bet: Bengals 1H team total over 13.5 (-118 at DraftKings)
