The Denver Broncos’ 10-7 record and playoff appearance brought relief after eight years without postseason action. The team saw a strong debut from rookie quarterback Bo Nix, who completed 66.3% of his passes for 3,775 yards, 29 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. The defense also performed well, leading the NFL with 63 sacks.
However, their 31-7 loss to the Buffalo Bills in the wild-card round exposed the gap between the Broncos and top teams in the AFC. Coach Sean Payton acknowledged this after the game, saying, “We need to have a good offseason.”
As the Broncos look ahead to the offseason, here are the major questions they face.
How should we view the Broncos’ 2024 season? And what was the biggest surprise?
Ending their playoff drought made the season feel successful. After a rough 0-2 start, the Broncos won nine of their next 12 games, setting themselves up to need just one win in the final three games to secure a playoff spot.
They did that, earning their first postseason berth since their Super Bowl 50 victory in 2015. The team finished well above the 6.6 wins that ESPN’s Football Power Index projected for them in the preseason.
Despite that, the Broncos struggled against top teams. Only two of their 10 wins came against playoff teams, and one of those was in Week 18 against a Chiefs team that rested their regular players for the playoffs. The other win over a playoff team was against the NFC South champion Buccaneers in Week 3.
When looking deeper, six of the Broncos’ 10 wins came against teams ranked in the bottom 10 of the league. They also had trouble against the AFC’s top quarterbacks, with an 0-6 record (including playoffs) when facing Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, and Josh Allen. However, the team did show improvement by winning games they were expected to win.
The biggest surprise was that Payton couldn’t find a consistent run game despite his playcalling experience. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, the Broncos were 24th in the league for rushing yards over expected per play (-0.06) and had trouble finding a reliable running back.
Five different players led the team in rushing yards during games, and top back Javonte Williams finished with just 513 yards. This forced Nix to throw the ball more, as he finished sixth in the NFL with 567 pass attempts, more than other top quarterbacks like Herbert, Allen, and Jackson. Payton often mentioned that a solid run game would benefit Nix, but that never materialized.
Where do the Broncos stand in the AFC hierarchy after the playoff breakthrough?
While the season was a big improvement, the Broncos still face a major challenge in the AFC West: Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs’ star quarterback, a two-time MVP and three-time Super Bowl MVP, has led the Chiefs to a 13-1 record against the Broncos in games he’s started, and he’s only 29 years old.
This roadblock isn’t likely to go away soon. The Broncos were also swept by Herbert and the Chargers, so they have plenty of work ahead in their own division to compete in the AFC.
“One of the things we learned early on is we’ve got to find a way to play these [playoff] games at home,” Payton said after the Buffalo loss. “That’s another thing that’s at work.”
The Broncos have pulled ahead of the rebuilding Raiders, but until they can start beating the Chargers and Chiefs, they will remain in third place in the AFC West.
“We know the way you get home games [in the playoffs] is to win your division,” said wide receiver Courtland Sutton.
What’s next for Nix’s development?
During his rookie season, Bo Nix showed impressive self-awareness and took responsibility for both the good and the bad. He was quick to acknowledge his mistakes and successes.
When asked about areas to improve, Nix pointed to the red zone and third downs. “Those are the most important parts of the game,” he said. “I feel like the red zone and third down areas are where I can make growth, be a little bit more aware of certain situations.”
What to know for the NFL offseason:
- Team-by-team offseason guide (ESPN+)
- Ranking the top 25 free agents (ESPN+)
- Draft order | Reid’s mock draft (ESPN+)
- Coaching hires | Free agency | Draft
The Broncos had the third-highest percentage of three-and-out possessions in the league (26.3%), only behind the 3-14 Giants and 5-12 Panthers. Despite ranking seventh in red zone efficiency, scoring touchdowns 62.5% of the time inside the opponent’s 20-yard line, the Broncos struggled with short possessions that left their offense inconsistent.
This issue wasn’t just on Nix. The running game struggles also contributed to the three-and-outs. Accuracy and footwork were occasional problems. Nix had a QBR of 56.9 (18th in the NFL) despite having one of the best pass-blocking offensive lines in the league.
His in-pocket QBR of 53.9 ranked 23rd in the NFL. This is understandable for a rookie QB in an offense that lacked a reliable tight end and had only one wide receiver, Courtland Sutton, with more than 41 receptions. Nix needs more support to succeed.
Who might not be back in 2025?
It’s still unclear how many changes Coach Sean Payton will make to his staff. Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph interviewed for the Jets’ head coach job and is being considered for other head-coaching openings. While Joseph has said he enjoys coaching the Broncos’ defense and isn’t seeking another head coach position, he also hopes the right opportunity will come along.
Quarterbacks coach Davis Webb is another person to watch, as he’s being considered for other positions in the league. Webb may want to leave for a job with more play-calling responsibilities, so it will be interesting to see how Payton handles any interviews or offers for Webb.
The list of pending free agents includes key players like running back Javonte Williams, defensive tackle D.J. Jones, and both starting inside linebackers Cody Barton and Justin Strnad. Backup quarterbacks Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson are also set to be unrestricted free agents.
What are some of the biggest offseason priorities?
One of the Broncos’ top priorities is finding Payton’s “joker,” a versatile player like Alvin Kamara, Reggie Bush, or Darren Sproles, who could play both running back and receiver. The team needs to focus on adding skill-position players at running back, receiver, and tight end to support Nix’s development and make the most of their strong, veteran offensive line.
However, the Broncos still have salary cap issues. They have $33.4 million in dead money for 2025, the third-most in the NFL, with $32 million from the release of quarterback Russell Wilson in March. How they manage this money could determine if their playoff appearance was a brief moment or the start of sustained success.
To create cap room in 2024, the Broncos added voidable years to several expensive contracts, allowing them to have $61 million in cap space for 2025, which is the eighth-highest in the league.
In 2024, the Broncos were aggressive with extensions, signing All-Pro cornerback Pat Surtain II, All-Pro guard Quinn Meinerz, outside linebacker Jonathon Cooper, and offensive tackle Garett Bolles to four-year deals. The team could continue this trend in 2025, with edge rusher Nik Bonitto as a priority.
Nik Bonitto had 13.5 sacks in 2024 and could be the next Broncos player to receive a long-term extension. He broke out in his third season, setting a franchise record for sacks. He was selected for his first Pro Bowl and named second-team All-Pro. Bonitto is entering the final season of his rookie contract, and the Broncos will likely need to offer him a top deal to prevent him from hitting free agency.
What positions could the Broncos target in the draft?
Payton is committed to developing Nix and has already strengthened the offensive line, so the next step is adding help around the young quarterback. Skill positions will be a focus in the draft, especially tight end, as the Broncos’ leading tight end, Adam Trautman, only had 13 receptions for 188 yards and two touchdowns.
Inside linebacker is another position to watch, even with the expected return of Alex Singleton, who tore his ACL in Week 3. The team may also look to improve at safety. Opposing offenses took advantage of the Broncos’ nickel defense, especially during the Bills’ 210 rushing yards and 41:43 time of possession in the wild-card loss.
