No Lionel Messi. No Cristiano Ronaldo.
When the Ballon d’Or is presented at a ceremony in Paris on Monday, it will mark the beginning of a new chapter in soccer. There is also a feeling of emptiness now that one of the sport’s most exciting rivalries seems to have ended.
“It’s interesting that as it starts to come to an end, we are sort of saying, what’s the next equivalent rivalry going to be,” soccer writer Jonathan Wilson told The Associated Press. “As if that kind of rivalry was a natural state. But there’s never been a rivalry like that before.”
Messi and Ronaldo combined won soccer’s top individual award 13 times over a 16-year period of remarkable dominance. Neither of them has been nominated this year.
Instead, Real Madrid winger Vinicius Junior is favored to be named the world’s best player and could be the first winner born this century.
He showcased his skills this week with an amazing hat trick in the Champions League against Borussia Dortmund.
“Vinicius had an incredible season where he was a key player… he proved he’s the best player in the world,” said his Madrid teammate Lucas Vazquez.
But rather than Vinicius leading a new era of success, it seems likely the award will go back to a time before Messi and Ronaldo, when multiple winners were not common.
For example, French legend Zinedine Zidane won it only once, as did Ronaldinho, Rivaldo, Luis Figo, and George Best. Originally, the award was only for European players, so it was never won by Pele or Diego Maradona.
Before Messi, the last player to win the award back-to-back was Dutch striker Marco van Basten in 1988 and ’89.
Messi won an eighth Ballon d’Or last year, extending his record after he led Argentina to victory in the 2022 World Cup. Wilson, who wrote about the history of Argentinian soccer in his book “Angels With Dirty Faces,” does not see anyone who can replace the Barcelona star, who is now at Inter Miami.
“Messi’s been phenomenal for 17, 18 years,” he said. “It’s not a pure tallying process, but in terms of greatness over a long time, Messi is the greatest there has ever been by quite some margin.”
“I don’t think there’s anybody in the world now who has anything remotely close to that talent.”
Because of the strong presence of Messi and Ronaldo, not only would Vinicius Junior be the first winner born this century, but there has never been a winner born in the ’90s either.
Vinicius Junior, whose goals helped Madrid win their 15th European Cup last season, is part of a new generation of stars emerging as Messi and Ronaldo near the end of their careers.
Kylian Mbappe, Erling Haaland, Jude Bellingham, and Lamine Yamal are all strong contenders who could compete for many years.
Manchester City midfielder Rodri is the second favorite to win this year and would be the first player born in the ’90s to receive the award.
Mbappe, who has often been viewed as the next top player after Messi and Ronaldo, was born in 1998. This means that eventually, there will likely be a winner from that decade, even if Rodri does not win this year.
Since Ronaldo won his first Ballon d’Or in 2008, the only other winners have been Luka Modric in 2018 and Karim Benzema in 2022, both of whom were born in the 1980s.
The award was not given in 2020, even though Robert Lewandowski was widely considered the best player that year; he was also born in the ’80s. Neymar, who was born in 1992, finished third two times.
The Ballon d’Or was created by France Football magazine and has been awarded since 1956. Journalists from the top 100 countries in the FIFA rankings vote for it.
Each journalist selects 10 players in order of preference, with points given based on their rankings. The player with the most points wins.
The strong presence of Messi and Ronaldo, especially during the age of social media, has increased the visibility of the award.
Players now express their dreams of winning it similarly to how they used to talk about winning the Champions League and World Cup.
The chance to win the Ballon d’Or is often mentioned during transfer talks, with clauses added to contracts that require a buying club to pay extra if a player becomes the best player in the world.
While Vinicius seems to be the favorite this year, a rivalry between Mbappe and Haaland could emerge for the award, especially since they play for Real Madrid and Manchester City, which are the top teams in Europe lately.
“That whole idea of rivalries and sort of head-to-head, one-v-ones is just such a big part of football now,” soccer author Matt Oldfield told The Associated Press. “People want to be able to simplify it to one-v-one, and I think the Mbappe-Haaland debate will be the leading one.”
Oldfield writes children’s books about soccer and often talks to kids at schools to see which players they like.
His latest series is “The Football GOAT (greatest of all time).”
The first book was about Messi and Ronaldo, while the next will focus on Mbappe and Haaland: “We’re kind of moving beyond Messi and Ronaldo now,” he said.
