This week, the College Football Playoff selection committee made a surprising suggestion: the Georgia Bulldogs, who have won two of the past three national championships and began the season as the preseason No. 1 in the AP poll, might not make the final 12-team playoff field.
If you were to plug in the teams from this week’s CFP rankings into a bracket, you would find that No. 12 Georgia is actually the first team left out.
Instead, No. 13 Boise State would secure the 12th seed, with the fifth highest-ranked conference champion guaranteed a spot.
However, these rankings are not final; they are meant for television and there are many more data points to be gathered before Selection Sunday on December 8, when the true playoff field will be revealed.
The scrutiny the committee is facing shouldn’t be surprising. Deciding between teams in the 5-12 range is far more challenging than simply ranking the top four, as it has been for the past decade.
When it comes to bubble teams, there are always clear flaws to address. This particular chaotic regular season only highlights those difficulties.
Nevertheless, seeing the Bulldogs as the first team out of the bracket was a shock—especially considering they just came off an 18-point loss to Ole Miss, marking their second loss of the season.
Quarterback Carson Beck has struggled for over a month, leading the SEC in turnovers, and even the defense, typically a hallmark of Kirby Smart’s teams, has been vulnerable at times this year.
It makes sense that a two-loss Georgia team could miss the Playoff.
This week’s projected bracket includes four SEC teams, so it’s not as though the conference is being overlooked, even though Southeastern fans may feel slighted given that the Big Ten has four teams ranked in the committee’s top five.
On the other hand, the ACC and Big 12 are in danger of being one-bid leagues.
So why the uproar over Georgia? A large part of it is the fact that it’s Georgia. With Nick Saban’s retirement, Kirby Smart has become the standard-bearer of college football, with his consistent success and recent championships setting a new benchmark.
Additionally, Georgia has faced the toughest schedule in the nation, according to ESPN’s strength of schedule metrics.
Their two losses (and near-loss to Kentucky) have come against some of the hardest opponents, and fans want that to factor into the committee’s assessment.
“Their offense hasn’t been consistent — the committee discussed that,” said selection committee chair Warde Manuel.
“They’ve struggled with some turnovers. The defense has been solid, although in the loss to Ole Miss, we felt that that plays a factor into with the offense struggling; their defense was on the field quite a bit.”
Manuel also noted that due to the committee’s principle of prioritizing head-to-head results, Georgia was placed behind the two teams it lost to (Alabama and Ole Miss), which is a reasonable approach.
Still, this has led to an existential crisis for Georgia fans and those who believe the SEC is the nation’s top conference.
They want to believe a two-loss Georgia team is a lock for the CFP, and some even think a three-loss Georgia could still make it in.
We still don’t know how conference championship games will impact the final bracket.
CFP executive director Rich Clark and his staff have indicated they don’t expect teams losing in their conference title games to be penalized, as they would have played an additional game compared to the other teams in the at-large pool.
In theory, if Georgia beats Tennessee this weekend and makes it to the SEC championship game, it could suffer a third loss.
But would that be treated as a third loss? Or could the committee overlook that? It sounds plausible, but it’s hard to believe the committee won’t take note of that third loss when reviewing Georgia’s profile.
Moreover, if losing a conference championship game doesn’t penalize one team, should it really be different for the losers of the Big 12 and ACC title games?
If Miami and BYU are comfortably in the bracket heading into their respective championship games, why wouldn’t a loss in those games disqualify them from at-large consideration?
Much of the current CFP debate revolves around the value of brand recognition. The conversation about Georgia is happening because it’s Georgia. Similarly, we’re discussing two-loss SEC teams because they come from the SEC.
If another team had Georgia’s resume, a turnover-prone quarterback, and a generally downward trajectory, it would be much easier to accept them being on the wrong side of the bubble.
If SMU had Michigan’s helmet and the same resume—a top-20 win and a close loss to the nation’s No. 6 team—it’s likely that SMU would still be in the playoff conversation, much like teams such as Texas, Penn State, and Indiana, who are ranked in the top six despite lacking signature wins.
It’s still unclear if any of these teams could survive a loss and remain in the final bracket.
Ultimately, this season is testing our patience. With a new format and a process that remains somewhat opaque, much remains unknown.
But this is what everyone agreed to when the 12-team bracket was introduced in the era of megaconferences.
Georgia being left out of the field is something no one would have predicted back on Labor Day, but in a season filled with surprises, this could be one we should have seen coming.
