When the Miami Dolphins lost to the Buffalo Bills in Week 9, dropping their record to 2-6, most fans thought the team would focus on getting a high draft pick instead of hoping for a playoff spot.
However, under coach Mike McDaniel, the Dolphins have turned things around in the second half of the season. Since that loss to the Bills, they’ve gone 6-2, taking advantage of weaker opponents to get back in the playoff race.
Now, Miami has a real chance to make the playoffs as they enter Week 18 with an 8-8 record. They need to win and get some help, but their playoff chances are the second best among the final three teams fighting for a spot.
So, how can the Dolphins make the playoffs? Here’s what needs to happen for them to qualify for the postseason for the third straight year under McDaniel.
Dolphins playoff chances
Miami has a 19% chance to make the playoffs, according to The Athletic’s playoff prediction model. This puts them behind the Denver Broncos, who have a 74% chance, but ahead of the Cincinnati Bengals, who only have a 6% chance.
Dolphins playoff odds
BetMGM Sportsbook lists the Dolphins with +650 odds to make the playoffs. This gives them a 13.33% chance to qualify, which is a little more negative than The Athletic’s predictions.
In comparison, the Broncos have -700 odds to make the playoffs as the AFC’s No. 7 seed, while the Bengals are considered longshots at +1600.
How can the Dolphins make the playoffs?
Miami has a clear path to the postseason in Week 18. Here’s what must happen:
- The Dolphins must beat the New York Jets.
- The Broncos must lose to the Kansas City Chiefs.
While Miami’s path is simple, it won’t be easy. First, the Dolphins need to beat the Jets without starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who is out with a hip injury. Backup Tyler Huntley led the Dolphins to a win over the Cleveland Browns, but the Jets will be a tougher challenge.
Although the Jets lost 40-14 to the Buffalo Bills in Week 17, Aaron Rodgers could be extra motivated if this is his last NFL game. He’s one touchdown away from his 500th, and a strong performance from him could make it hard for the Dolphins to keep up.
Even if Miami wins their game against the Jets, they’ll need the Broncos to lose to the Chiefs. While this might usually seem like a good bet, Kansas City plans to rest its starters, including quarterback Patrick Mahomes, in Week 18.
The Dolphins will then hope for Carson Wentz to lead the Chiefs to victory over a strong Broncos defense. This won’t be easy, especially since Denver will have all its starters in a must-win game.
Dolphins potential playoff opponents
If the Dolphins manage to get the results they need to make the playoffs, they will be the AFC’s No. 7 seed. The Buffalo Bills have already secured the No. 2 seed in the conference after their Week 17 win over the Jets, so if Miami makes the playoffs, they will play against Buffalo.
The Bills have had a strong run against the Dolphins recently, winning six times in a row, including a 34-31 victory in the 2023 NFL playoffs. Tua Tagovailoa has never won an NFL game where the kickoff temperature was below 45 degrees, so the Dolphins might be the team the Bills would prefer to face among their three possible playoff opponents.
