How likely is a Myles Garrett trade to the Arizona Cardinals?

The Myles Garrett trade rumors are heating up this offseason after he publicly asked to be traded from Cleveland last week.

Considering the Arizona Cardinals’ pass-rushing situation as they enter a big Year 3 under their current coaching staff, it makes sense that fans and media are speculating about a possible fit for Garrett.

But how likely is it that Garrett ends up with the Cardinals?

Looking at what a potential Garrett trade could cost and the state of NFL teams, Bill Barnwell didn’t rule out Arizona as a possible destination. He placed the Cardinals in the “unlikely but plausible” category, along with eight other teams.

The Cardinals have taken their time with their rebuild over the past two years. Coach Jonathan Gannon, known for his strong defensive mind, has come up with creative pressures to generate a pass rush during this period. But he took over a defense that ranked 24th in expected points added (EPA) per play in 2022, then saw it drop to last place in 2023, before improving to 22nd in 2024.

To move forward and compete for a playoff spot, Arizona needs a strong edge rusher. They’ll get BJ Ojulari back after the 2023 second-round pick missed the season with a torn ACL, and they might re-sign free agent Baron Browning after acquiring him in a midseason trade.

However, Garrett would be the type of big move that could really help push the defense to the next level. While an 8-9 record might not scream championship contender, it’s often not difficult to convince players to sign with Arizona.

It’s no surprise the Cardinals need more pass-rushing help after seeing Zaven Collins lead the team with just five sacks last season. Dennis Gardeck had three sacks in seven games before a torn ACL ended his season early.

The outside linebackers’ performance, combined with an injury-plagued defensive line, caused Arizona to finish 28th in pass-rush win rate with a 33% mark.

Garrett himself posted a 22% pass-rush win rate last year, which was tied for the fifth-best mark among edge rushers.

What would a trade for Myles Garrett look like?

When considering what a trade for Garrett might look like, Barnwell pointed to a trade many in the Valley will remember: the DeAndre Hopkins-David Johnson trade.

Barnwell looked at players from the past 40 years who were named first-team All-Pro three times before being traded in their 20s and found the Hopkins deal, along with five other comparisons.

Hopkins was entering his 28th year and coming off a season with 1,165 yards and seven touchdowns. He had made his third straight first-team All-Pro appearance.

Although he wanted a new contract with three years left on his existing deal and eventually got more money from the Cardinals, the Texans gave up a superstar at a top position in his prime for a surprisingly low return. Ironically, this trade led to Watson wanting to leave Houston, which has now led to Garrett wanting to leave Cleveland.

While the Hopkins trade fits Barnwell’s criteria, the return Cleveland might get from a similar deal—trading a player Arizona was moving on from, along with a second- and fourth-round pick—doesn’t seem close to what Cleveland would ask for Garrett. This is even with the added possibility that the pass rusher would likely need an extension after the move.

At least the Cardinals are in the conversation.

While Barnwell has placed the Cardinals in the “plausible” category along with eight other teams, he has already ruled out 11 teams. On the other hand, Barnwell sees the Chicago Bears, Indianapolis Colts, and Washington Commanders as the best fits for a potential Garrett trade.

Below those teams, he has four “maybe” teams: the Buffalo Bills, Detroit Lions, and Los Angeles Chargers.