Alex Ovechkin celebrates the goal with his teammates in the 2nd period
Wayne Gretzky’s records are not meant to be broken. He has nearly 1,000 more career points (2,857) than Jaromir Jagr (1,921, who is in second place) and over 1,200 more than the closest active player, Sidney Crosby (1,644). Gretzky also has more than 700 more assists (1,963) than second-place Ron Francis (1,249) and nearly 1,000 more than Crosby, the active leader (1,040).
For Alex Ovechkin to be just 21 goals away from tying Gretzky’s record of 894 is a huge achievement, and this chase has created a lot of excitement. As with any major historical moment, bettors are looking to get involved. It helps that the Washington Capitals captain is ahead of schedule in the goal race, and his team is performing unexpectedly well in the league.
During the 2023-24 season, the 39-year-old scored 31 goals in 79 games, averaging 0.39 goals per game, the lowest of his career. Many thought that Father Time had caught up with Ovechkin, and he would need at least two more seasons to catch Gretzky.
Sportsbooks still wanted to take advantage of the excitement around Ovechkin’s record chase but also acknowledged it was unlikely he would break the record during the 2024-25 season. BetMGM, DraftKings, and FanDuel offered a special bet on him breaking the record this season (scoring goal 895), opening with +1000 odds. Other sportsbooks like Caesars and ESPN BET didn’t offer this market at the start of the season because it seemed unlikely.
Ovechkin began the season with an amazing scoring streak, netting 15 goals in his first 18 games, averaging 0.83 goals per game. This would be his best rate for an entire season. The Washington Capitals also surprised everyone by performing well.
At the start of the season, they were ranked 75-1 to win the Stanley Cup, tied for 23rd in the league. But by mid-season, they were leading both the Metropolitan Division and the Eastern Conference with 63 points, tied with the Winnipeg Jets for the most points in the NHL.
“I didn’t think we’d be where we are today,” said Karry Shreeve, head of hockey at Caesars Sportsbook. “I certainly didn’t project the Capitals as a team to be where they are, and that reflects where we stand with some of our positions. So it also meant I didn’t expect Ovechkin to be near the record.”
Alex Ovechkin celebrates after scoring
The Capitals’ unexpected success caused trouble for sportsbooks, with BetMGM reporting that Washington was their second-largest liability to win the Cup, behind only the popular New York Rangers. Shreeve said his team didn’t “buy in” to the hot start and didn’t adjust the odds on the Capitals’ future bets until they had to. He added that “customers will do very well” if Washington wins the division, conference, or championship.
The Capitals’ great start has made them a profitable bet on most nights. A bettor who placed $100 on every game would have made $1,279 by backing Washington in every contest on the money line. However, Johnny Avello, sportsbook director at DraftKings, said Ovechkin’s scoring streak hasn’t affected how the sportsbook sets its lines.
Despite the team’s success, this season hasn’t been without problems. On Nov. 18, Ovechkin scored two goals against the Utah Hockey Club, just one night after recording his first hat trick of the season. But during the game, he collided with Utah’s Jack McBain and fractured his fibula, which kept him out for 16 games. This injury briefly slowed his record chase and increased the odds of him breaking Gretzky’s record this season after they had dropped earlier.
“Pre-injury, Ovechkin set the clock back a few years and was on track to break the record easily this year. Everyone was excited about it,” said BetMGM senior trader Matthew Rowe. “Since his return, his production has slowed a bit, and now we see more balanced action. The odds are still dropping on him breaking the record this season.”
Shreeve and his team at Caesars used Ovechkin’s time off to reevaluate the special bet. They reopened the market shortly after Ovechkin’s return, and after scoring five goals in 10 games back, his odds to break the record this season were set at +140 on Jan. 16.
“The goal is to make the ‘Yes’ side attractive to bettors,” Shreeve explained. “Until we’re forced by the numbers, we want to keep the odds as high as we can.”
Alex Ovechkin waves to the crowd after the game
ESPN BET opened its market at +120 in early January, and it has been very popular with bettors. Despite being available for a shorter time, this market has already received more bets and money than a special bet on Shohei Ohtani hitting 50-plus home runs and 50-plus stolen bases in the 2024 MLB season.
If Ovechkin can continue his strong performance, sportsbooks will focus on other related special markets, such as which team he will break the record against and how he will do it. FanDuel said that although the market for how he will break the record isn’t very popular, most bettors are picking him to do it on the power play, where Ovechkin is already the all-time leader with 317 goals.
The excitement around Ovechkin’s chase for the record isn’t just limited to special future bets. Whenever the Capitals play, his anytime goal-scorer bets have become very popular. On Jan. 7, Ovechkin was the most-bet anytime goal scorer in the league, with double the number of wagers compared to the next closest player. This is one of eight occasions this season where he has been the most popular anytime goal scorer at ESPN BET.
BetMGM reported that Ovechkin has received the second most total bets for anytime goal scorer in the NHL, and he has been the most-bet for the market in every Capitals game since returning from injury.
Shreeve emphasized that Caesars tries to offer appealing live odds for this market as much as possible since bettors seem to always be interested when they have the chance.
“We’re obviously trying to make a profit, but it’s great when he scores,” Shreeve said. “It keeps the momentum going, keeps customers happy, and they keep coming back. If he can keep up a good pace, it’s a win-win for everyone.”
The 2024-25 NHL season has been hard to predict. Some teams that were expected to be great haven’t lived up to those expectations, while other teams that were thought to be average have performed better than expected. As the season reaches its halfway point, there’s still time for things to change.
What we know so far this season is that there have been a lot of goals scored, and not just by Leon Draisaitl and Alex Ovechkin. After 649 games, the NHL has averaged 6.1 goals per game, marking the fourth consecutive season above six goals per game. This increase in scoring has made the season more unpredictable. According to the NHL, 44% of these games have been comeback wins, which is tied for the second-highest rate in history.
While the season hasn’t provided much clarity on which teams are the top contenders, the excitement from goals and fluctuating scores has made things interesting.
With that said, here are 20 NHL awards and superlatives for the midpoint of the season:
Best team: Winnipeg Jets
This could have been the Washington Capitals, who led the NHL standings after 44 games and played well despite losing their best goal scorer for 16 games. The Edmonton Oilers could also be in this spot, as they’ve been the top team in the NHL since October 31, overcoming a rough start following their Stanley Cup Final appearance.
However, the Jets take the spot for a few reasons. They had the best start in NHL history with 15 wins in their first 16 games. Although they couldn’t keep that pace going, they’ve settled into a solid performance, leading the Central Division by a comfortable margin while being among the top three teams in both offense and defense.
While they could be better at 5-on-5 play and less reliant on the league’s top power play, Connor Hellebuyck has been outstanding, covering up many of the team’s flaws. He looks like he could be on his way to becoming the first back-to-back Vezina Trophy winner since Martin Brodeur in 2006-07 and 2007-08.
Most disappointing team: Nashville Predators
There have been other disappointing teams this season, but we knew the Chicago Blackhawks would struggle. The Pittsburgh Penguins were a flawed team holding on to hopes of success despite their issues. The Seattle Kraken’s plans for Year 4 are still unclear.
However, true disappointment comes from failing to meet expectations. For example, the Boston Bruins are barely in the playoff picture after firing their coach, despite having a record-breaking 135-point season just two years ago. The New York Rangers went from Cup contenders to rebuilding their core in just a few months. The Predators are in a similar situation.
Nashville has been a disaster in the standings, with a .407 points percentage, even though they’ve shown some improvement recently. Their offense, which was strong last season, has been one of the worst in the league, with a significant drop in scoring. Players like Tommy Novak have seen their production fall sharply. Nashville ranks last in the NHL in 5-on-5 goals by a wide margin.
Still, they are just one strong stretch away from making a playoff push, as we saw last season.
Most valuable player: Leon Draisaitl
Before his injury, Kirill Kaprizov was in the running for this award as he was the main player driving the Minnesota Wild’s offense.
With Kaprizov out, Draisaitl is now the clear front-runner for the Hart Trophy. He’s on pace to score 31 goals in 43 games, which would rank among the top 10 goal-scoring seasons since 2005.
Leon Draisaitl Shines as Oilers Extend Streak, NHL Action Highlights Key Performances Across the League
Draisaitl leads the NHL in expected goals above replacement and has added 4.3 wins to the Oilers’ standing. This is despite playing alongside less well-known players like Vasily Podkolzin, Viktor Arvidsson, and Kasperi Kapanen.
Nathan MacKinnon of the Colorado Avalanche deserves a mention too, as his strong December put him in the running for a chance to become the first back-to-back Hart winner since Alex Ovechkin in 2007-09. Vancouver Canucks defenseman Quinn Hughes has also been crucial to his team’s success, and Connor Hellebuyck deserves recognition for his incredible goaltending.
Least valuable player: Jeff Skinner
On the opposite side of things in Edmonton is Jeff Skinner. The 32-year-old winger was a highly anticipated addition after being bought out by the Buffalo Sabres. Three years after a 35-goal season, fans were excited about him playing alongside Draisaitl and Connor McDavid.
However, Skinner hasn’t lived up to expectations. He has just seven goals and eight assists in 40 games, playing only 12:36 per game and sometimes being a healthy scratch. He has been a defensive liability and is far behind in goals scored above replacement.
This is not a good sign for the Oilers when their free-agent acquisition has just one more point than Corey Perry at the halfway point of the season.
Greatest on-ice achievement: Alex Ovechkin
The Washington Capitals captain, Alex Ovechkin, has made his pursuit of Wayne Gretzky’s career goals record (894) a main focus this season. As of Wednesday, Ovechkin has scored 873 career goals, thanks to 20 goals in 27 games. This is an amazing pace for a 39-year-old player. In fact, Ovechkin’s 17 goals in his first 20 games were his best start ever at any age.
This is his 20th consecutive season with 20 or more goals, a record only surpassed by Gordie Howe (22 seasons). If Ovechkin keeps up this pace, he could break Gretzky’s record by the end of March, even though he has missed some time due to injury this season.
A fun stat about Ovechkin, shared by Mike Callow of ESPN Radio in Washington, is that Ovechkin scored 848 goals during the time Washington’s NFL team went without a playoff win, from 2006 to 2025. While this might highlight the struggles of Washington football, it also shows just how incredible Ovechkin’s scoring has been.
Best trend: The rarity of shootouts
Shootouts are often seen as an unfair way to decide a game after 65 minutes of play. However, the good news this season is that shootouts have been rare. According to the NHL, 76.5% of games that went past regulation were decided in 3-on-3 overtime, the highest rate of overtime goals in NHL history. This trend is a positive one, and fans hope it continues.
Worst trend: Deferred money
Some NHL players, such as Jake McCabe from the Toronto Maple Leafs, Seth Jarvis from the Carolina Hurricanes, and Frank Vatrano from the Anaheim Ducks, have signed contract extensions with a large portion of their money being deferred until after they retire.
This helps teams manage their salary caps. While this is allowed under the CBA and has been done before, like when Arizona re-signed Shane Doan in 2016, it’s still something the NHL frowns upon. Many feel that creative accounting like this is unfair, as it helps teams get around salary cap limits in ways that hurt competitive balance.
Most inspirational story: Columbus Blue Jackets
The hockey world is still feeling the loss of Johnny Gaudreau, whose tragic death has impacted many. His memory continues to be honored, such as when the USHL Dubuque Fighting Saints, where Gaudreau played and was a minority owner, retired his jersey. But perhaps the most powerful tribute to him has been the Columbus Blue Jackets’ performance this season.
The Blue Jackets entered the season with a new GM, a new coach, and heavy hearts. Despite this, they finished the first half of the season as a strong playoff contender in the Eastern Conference. The team has been led by Zach Werenski’s strong performance, possibly worthy of a Norris Trophy, and a great season from Sean Monahan, who has been playing in a point-per-game pace.
The memories of Gaudreau are still present around Nationwide Arena, with his picture on the outside of the building and his locker stall preserved inside. His teammates have been processing their grief, and some of that has driven them to succeed. GM Don Waddell shared that they held many meetings to figure out how to honor Gaudreau’s memory.
As Waddell explained, the team has been repeating words from Gaudreau’s widow, Meredith, from the funeral: “Johnny would want you guys to go play hockey. I want you to go play hockey. Go play hockey.” These words have helped inspire the team throughout the season.
Most important rookie: Dustin Wolf
While rookies like Macklin Celebrini from the San Jose Sharks and Lane Hutson from the Montreal Canadiens have been impressive, the most important rookie performance this season is from Dustin Wolf of the Calgary Flames.
Celebrini has been impressive, with 0.91 points per game in 34 games, putting him in the top 10 for rookies since 2005. Hutson is also leading all rookies in points and improving with every game. Both players have been showing why they are top Calder Trophy candidates.
San Jose Sharks (NHL)
However, when it comes to the most important rookie, Dustin Wolf is the clear choice. In his first 23 games, Wolf had a record of 15-6-2, a .916 save percentage, and a 2.50 goals-against average, including two shutouts. He’s also contributed three assists. Wolf’s performance has been crucial for the Flames, who would likely be focused on their draft lottery chances right now if it weren’t for him. Instead, they are still in the wild-card race, thanks to his strong play in goal.
Most forsaken player: Connor Bedard
The last thing you want to see from your franchise player in his second NHL season is the kind of empty look that Connor Bedard has when talking about the direction of the Blackhawks, which right now seems like a rocket that isn’t working properly. Even in moments when he should be proud of personal accomplishments, like reaching 100 career points faster than any other teenager in NHL history, his thoughts often turn back to how poorly the Blackhawks are performing.
The Chicago Blackhawks rebuilt their roster to get a player like Bedard in the draft, but the team still doesn’t have much to show for it. Unlike some other top rookies, like Celebrini, who joined a team with talented players like William Eklund, Will Smith, and Yaroslav Askarov, Bedard doesn’t have nearly as much support.
Where’s the Evgeni Malkin to his Sidney Crosby? The Nicklas Backstrom to his Ovechkin? The answer is “in future drafts,” which likely isn’t what Bedard wants to hear.
Goal of the (half) year: Nazem Kadri
The 1992 romantic comedy The Cutting Edge – written by Andor showrunner Tony Gilroy – asks what would happen if a hockey player became an Olympic figure skater.
Well, this goal by Kadri from December is what it might look like if a figure skater became a hockey player. The Calgary Flames center leaped over a sprawled J.J. Moser, stayed balanced when hitting the ice, spun around 360 degrees, pulled the puck back, and somehow beat Tampa Bay Lightning goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy.
It might not be the highest technical score from the judges, but Kadri certainly nailed the presentation.
Save of the (half) year: Jacob Markstrom
It’s rare to see two save-of-the-year candidates in the same game, but that’s exactly what Jacob Markstrom did against the Seattle Kraken on January 6.
Markstrom made a fantastic glove save on a sure goal by Eeli Tolvanen. But even better was his amazing hand-eye coordination, where he stared at the puck before swatting it away. That save was absolute mastery.
Markstrom even made a third save in the game that would have been the best save of the night for most goalies, but not for him that night.
Coach of the (half) year: Spencer Carbery
In his first 125 games as a head coach, Spencer Carbery has a .608 points percentage. He coached the Capitals to an unexpected playoff spot last season and has had them near the top of the NHL this season. While last season was impressive, this year has really shown his coaching abilities. He’s kept the team strong, even without Ovechkin for 16 games due to injury, got the best performances from young players, and smoothly integrated veteran additions into the team.
Capitals GM Chris Patrick recently shared that Carbery’s open-mindedness has impressed him. Take Pierre-Luc Dubois, who is having a strong season with the Capitals. Other coaches might have hesitated to bring in a player who’s been on three teams in three years, but Carbery didn’t hesitate. He saw the talent and worked to help Dubois succeed.
Almost everything Carbery has done has worked, and this could lead to a Jack Adams Award by the end of the season — or even more recognition for Washington.
Best glow-up: Colorado Avalanche goaltending
The Avalanche started the season with a shaky goaltending trio: Alexandar Georgiev, Justus Annunen, and Kaapo Kahkonen, with Kahkonen joining after both Georgiev and Annunen had rough starts. Instead of letting his talented team be held back by weak goaltending, GM Chris MacFarland made some big moves to improve the situation.
Annunen was traded to the Nashville Predators for veteran Scott Wedgewood, who had a tough start with the team. Then came the biggest change: Georgiev, in his third year as the team’s starter, was traded to the San Jose Sharks in exchange for goalie Mackenzie Blackwood.
Mackenzie Blackwood- Colorado Avalanche
So far, MacFarland’s decisions have paid off. Blackwood has been excellent, with a 9-2-1 record, a .938 save percentage, and a 1.89 goals-against average. The Avalanche was so impressed with Blackwood that they gave him a five-year contract extension worth $5.25 million per season.
Most shocking move: The Jim Montgomery migration
The Boston Bruins firing Jim Montgomery was something I expected before the season began, since he was in the last year of his contract and the team’s performance had been declining. However, the timing of the firing 20 games into the season was a surprise. What followed was even more surprising.
The St. Louis Blues fired head coach Drew Bannister after just 22 games, despite him being promoted to the role in the offseason. The Blues then quickly hired Montgomery, who had been an assistant coach with them before.
Blues GM Doug Armstrong said, “I was willing to go through the peaks and the valleys with Drew until Monty became available.”
Most ruthless front office: New York Rangers
Despite all the negative talk about the Rangers this season, they are still close to the last wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference, caught in a group of teams with similar records.
It’s clear the team has problems, and it’s equally clear that ownership and management are willing to make moves to fix them, no matter the cost. This includes using waivers to pressure players into trades, like Barclay Goodrow in the summer and captain Jacob Trouba during the season. Trouba was even nearly traded during the offseason. The team also put veteran Chris Kreider’s name in an email to other general managers, saying they were “open for business” regarding trades.
Whether or not the Rangers make the playoffs, there are very few players on the roster whose future with the team is secure.
Best feud: J.T. Miller vs. Elias Pettersson
This season has had plenty of locker room drama. For example, Boston Bruins stars Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak recently had to deny rumors of a rift between them, with Marchand posting photos on Instagram to show they were fine, which felt very much like a celebrity scandal.
But that Boston situation is nothing compared to what’s happening across the country.
Canucks stars Elias Pettersson and J.T. Miller have had issues for years, according to former Vancouver coach Bruce Boudreau. The tensions started before his time with the team and were partly about who their linemates were.
This season, the issue became clear after a practice outburst where Miller allegedly called Pettersson a baby. Captain Quinn Hughes acknowledged the issue between them. While Miller and Pettersson both denied any feud, with Miller saying, “You guys are just wasting your time. I don’t care,” the rumors and trade speculations about the two players have continued.
What makes it more complicated is that Miller has a full no-movement clause, while Pettersson’s contract runs through 2031-32, and he doesn’t have trade protection. Additionally, general manager Patrik Allvin recently criticized Pettersson, saying, “He needs to mature and understand that there are certain expectations and it does not get easier. And you need to face the music when things don’t go well.”
This issue is bigger than just some Instagram posts.
Best comeback: Patrik Laine
For the first time in a while, Patrik Laine is healthy. It’s not just on the ice, where a knee injury and an illness have kept him to only 15 games this season, but off the ice as well. Laine went through the NHL/NHLPA player assistance program last summer before being traded to the Montreal Canadiens, focusing on his health and well-being.
In August, he and his fiancée Jordan Leigh launched a mental health initiative called From Us to You, inspired by the many people who shared their stories with Laine.
Patrik Laine Scores First Hat Trick with Canadiens in 6-1 Victory Over Struggling Sabres
When Laine has played, he’s been productive, scoring 10 goals in 15 games, with nine of them coming on the power play. He continues to be one of the NHL’s most open and unfiltered players, though this can sometimes give opponents extra motivation, as he did before his first game back in Columbus.
Best in (Utah Hockey) Club: Logan Cooley
The Utah Hockey Club started off strong, faced some challenges, dealt with injuries, and is now still fighting for a wild-card spot.
There have been some standout moments in the former Coyotes’ first season in Salt Lake City, like goalie Karel Vejmelka’s surprising performances and star forward Clayton Keller’s expected success (even though he was left off Team USA’s roster).
But not enough attention is given to Logan Cooley, the 20-year-old forward. He has 37 points in 43 games, including 12 goals. He ranks second in goals and wins above replacement, just behind Keller, according to Evolving Hockey. With their roster and future potential, Utah will soon become a strong team in the West. Cooley’s performance is just a glimpse of what’s ahead.
Most likely to continue an NHL record playoff drought: Buffalo Sabres
Unless something major changes in the second half of the season, the Buffalo Sabres are set to miss the playoffs for the 14th year in a row, extending their NHL record. They haven’t made the playoffs since the 2010-11 season. To put that in perspective, that season was the rookie year for players like Sergei Bobrovsky, Taylor Hall, and Ryan McDonagh.
After 43 games, Stathletes gave the Sabres just a 0.4% chance of making the playoffs, even though Buffalo brought back coach Lindy Ruff and showed promise as a team that could improve in the East. It’s just another disappointing season for the Sabres.
Hard as it might be to believe, the 2024-25 NHL season is already more than halfway over. The average team has played 53% of the regular season, which equals 43.1 out of 82 games. This means struggling teams don’t have much time left to turn things around, with the March 7 trade deadline just 52 days away.
There’s a hierarchy within the teams feeling the pressure: Some, like the Boston Bruins, are still in the playoff mix despite a rough start. Some, like the Pittsburgh Penguins, are hanging on and hoping their rivals slip up.
Others, like the Buffalo Sabres, are in a position where only a miracle can save their playoff hopes (or they may need to accept the reality that their playoff dreams are over).
Let’s look at 12 teams that hoped to make the playoffs this season but now have a playoff probability of 50% or lower. We’ll break them down into categories based on their current playoff chances and the level of panic within each group.
Can fix this
These teams have playoff odds around 50%, so they still have a chance, but they need to improve in the coming months.
Boston Bruins (22-19)
Playoff odds: 41%
After their record-setting 2022-23 season, the Bruins have taken a step back. They lost key players like Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci but still managed to do well last season. They entered this season with a young roster, but things have not gone as expected.
They fired former NHL Coach of the Year Jim Montgomery six weeks into the season. Under new coach Joe Sacco, the team showed signs of improvement but recently hit another slump that puts their playoff chances in danger.
Must improve: The power play. The Bruins are ranked third-to-last in power-play scoring (13.2%). Only David Pastrnak is in the top 60 for power-play goals. The team has been struggling to score overall, with many forwards performing below their usual levels, and their defensemen aren’t contributing much either. Even Charlie McAvoy is struggling, so they need to capitalize on power-play opportunities.
Special panic factor: They’ve already made a coaching change, which is often a sign that a team is running out of solutions.
New York Rangers (20-20)
Playoff odds: 47%
The Rangers are the biggest example of panic this season. They were looking good in mid-November, but a series of losing streaks and injuries caused their playoff odds to drop significantly.
A few recent wins and the return of star goalie Igor Shesterkin offer hope, but the Rangers are still well below the wild-card cut line. Their playoff odds are this high mainly because the team’s talent suggests they can bounce back in the second half.
Must improve: Big-name production. A team with players like Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider, and Adam Fox should not be ranked 20th in scoring with a negative goal differential. Except for Shesterkin, none of the key players have performed at their expected levels this season.
Special panic factor: The market size. Playing in New York, their struggles are under intense scrutiny.
Ottawa Senators (22-18)
Playoff odds: 48%
The Senators are a bit of an odd case. They haven’t made the playoffs since 2017, but they’ve spent a lot in recent offseasons to try to change that. They are currently outside the playoff picture and have been hurt by the absence of key goalie Linus Ullmark due to injury.
The frustration is real, but the team still has a lot of potential, with a positive goal differential on the season. Ottawa has a young core, and there’s still hope they could break through.
Ottawa Senators (NHL)
Must improve: Scoring output. The Senators’ offense ranks 20th in goals per game and 26th in goals per minute at 5-on-5. Tim Stutzle, Brady Tkachuk, and Drake Batherson have been solid, but the team needs more scoring from their forwards and defensemen. Ottawa is tied for 29th in points from defensemen, and Jake Sanderson is the only one on track to hit 40 points.
Special panic factor: Another stalled rebuild. Since making the 2017 conference finals, the Senators have gone through several cycles of rebuilding. Will they fall short of the playoffs again?
Vancouver Canucks (19-14)
Playoff odds: 53%
After spending most of last season looking like a potential Stanley Cup contender and playing well against the eventual Western Conference champion Oilers, the Canucks seemed to have a bright future in 2024-25. However, an inconsistent start to the season from everyone except Quinn Hughes led to a slump, with Vancouver losing 12 of 16 games at one point.
Now, they are barely holding onto the final wild-card spot in the conference. There are even reports of the Canucks considering trade offers for key players like J.T. Miller and Elias Pettersson. The good news is that Vancouver is still more likely to make the playoffs than not, and they’re a better team than their negative goal differential suggests, but they need to get back to form.
Must improve: Goaltending. Vancouver has fallen from sixth in save percentage last season to 22nd this season. Much of this drop is due to star goalie Thatcher Demko missing time, but even when he’s been available, he hasn’t been playing well with an .883 save percentage.
Special panic factor: The long slump. Spending about a month in a losing streak can cause teams to lose focus on the bigger picture.
Other teams that fall into this category:
Calgary Flames (21-15)
Playoff odds: 35%
Hanging on by a thread
This group has lower playoff odds than the first one. These teams might still have a chance to turn things around, but none of them has shown much movement up the standings yet.
Pittsburgh Penguins (18-20)
Playoff odds: 9%
The Penguins have missed the playoffs the past two seasons despite having veteran stars like Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang, and Erik Karlsson. They hoped to reignite the old magic with their aging core, and Crosby even signed a two-year extension in September. However, the results have been disappointing.
Pittsburgh Penguins (NHL)
While Pittsburgh’s power play has improved (ranking fifth after dropping to 30th last season), the team is ranked 16th in scoring and 29th in goal differential, with Malkin currently on injured reserve. The Penguins are still close to a wild-card spot, but they haven’t shown enough to look like a playoff team.
Must improve: Goal prevention. The biggest priority for the Penguins is to improve their defense and goaltending. They’ve allowed fewer than three goals just once since December 17. Their defense is one of the worst in the league, and the goaltending duo of Alex Nedeljkovic and Tristan Jarry has been shaky. Without improvement here, they won’t make the playoffs.
Special panic factor: The end of an era. Pittsburgh is the oldest team in the league by average age, and they’ll eventually have to face the reality of closing the Crosby era.
New York Islanders (17-19)
Playoff odds: 14%
The Islanders have been a consistent playoff team under both former coach Lane Lambert and current coach Patrick Roy in recent years. However, their current playoff odds suggest that streak may come to an end.
They’re right behind their metro rival Rangers in the standings, well below the playoff cutoff. Unlike the Rangers, the Islanders don’t have as much talent outside of goalie Ilya Sorokin, whose performance has been more average this season.
Must improve: Scoring. With Mathew Barzal missing a lot of the early season due to injury, the Islanders are ranked 26th in goals per game and have the league’s worst power play (10.6%). While Anders Lee has had some success scoring, and Barzal has been back for about a month, the team’s scoring hasn’t improved much.
The Islanders had success in the late 2010s and early 2020s with weak offense, but this version of the team isn’t strong enough defensively to sustain that style.
Special panic factor: Running out of time. The Islanders have the fourth-oldest roster in the league, and some key players like Brock Nelson and Kyle Palmieri will be free agents soon.
St. Louis Blues (21-20)
Playoff odds: 17%
After their surprising Stanley Cup win in 2019, the Blues will always be remembered for their incredible second-half comeback. This season, the Blues are not a bad team, but they are struggling. Since Jim Montgomery took over as coach in late November, the team has been 11-11, which is just average. Staying at .500 won’t be enough to secure a wild-card spot in the Western Conference.
St. Louis Blues (NHL)
Must improve: Special teams. Like the Minnesota Wild, Islanders, Bruins, and Ducks, the Blues are ranked 23rd or worse on both power play and penalty kill. Despite having solid offensive players like Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou, Dylan Holloway, and Pavel Buchnevich, only two players have more than two power-play goals. Goalie Jordan Binnington, while decent, has the seventh-worst save percentage on the penalty kill.
Special panic factor: Franchise expectations. The Blues are a proud team, and if they miss the playoffs this year, it will be their second three-year playoff drought in team history.
Detroit Red Wings (20-19)
Playoff odds: 21%
The Red Wings used to make the playoffs for 25 straight seasons, but they haven’t made it in the last eight years. This season, their chances have slowly decreased, and they are currently around a 20% chance of making it. It’s surprising that a team with players like Lucas Raymond, Alex DeBrincat, Dylan Larkin, and Moritz Seider is fighting for a playoff spot.
Must improve: Depth. While the Red Wings have strong players, their depth outside the top five players is lacking. They have the 10th-fewest goals from players outside their top five of any team.
Special panic factor: Impatience. Fans and team management are getting frustrated, especially after general manager Steve Yzerman’s recent outburst when asked about the team’s long rebuild. The Red Wings have been rebuilding for years, and it’s surprising they haven’t broken through yet under the “Yzerplan.”
Other teams in this category:
Utah Hockey Club (18-18)
Playoff odds: 13%
Philadelphia Flyers (19-20)
Playoff odds: 6%
Resigned to their fate
These teams had some hope before the season started but have since accepted that making the playoffs is unlikely.
Chicago Blackhawks (14-28)
Playoff odds: < 1%
The Blackhawks didn’t have high playoff odds to start the season, but there was hope that with Connor Bedard, the team could outperform expectations. Unfortunately, coach Luke Richardson was fired in December, the new players haven’t lived up to expectations, and Bedard has faced unfair criticism as the team continues to struggle.
Must improve: Driving play. One of the main problems for the Blackhawks is that they haven’t been able to control the game. They have ranked last in their share of total shot attempts at 5-on-5 for two straight seasons.
Special panic factor: Bust worries. Much of the criticism of Bedard comes from impatience, with some fearing he might not live up to his “generational prospect” status. However, Bedard is performing well, currently on pace for the eighth-most adjusted points as a teenager in NHL history.
Seattle Kraken (19-23)
Playoff odds: 1%
The Kraken have been compared to their older expansion team brothers, the Golden Knights, who had an immediate success. Seattle tried to follow in their footsteps by making it to the second round in their second season, but they have struggled in their third season under new coach Dan Bylsma. Recently, they went through a tough stretch of three wins in 13 games, which has almost completely ruined their playoff chances.
Must improve: Talent development. The Kraken made some early moves to compete right away, bringing in prime-aged players, but that hasn’t worked out as planned. Some of their younger talents, like 2023 Calder Trophy winner Matty Beniers, haven’t developed as expected. Seattle might need a new strategy for building their team in the future.
Seattle Kraken (NHL)
Special panic factor: Return to expansion woes. Back in 2021, people wondered if the success of Vegas was a fluke or if future expansion teams could be just as competitive. Right now, Seattle is struggling, and it raises concerns that the Vegas model might not be something other expansion teams can replicate.
Nashville Predators (14-22)
Playoff odds: 3%
Nashville had high hopes after adding big-name players in the offseason, including future Hall of Famer Steven Stamkos. On paper, the team looked like a contender, but the decision to bring in several older players and form one of the oldest rosters in the league has not worked out. Aside from solid play from goalie Juuse Saros, the Predators have not met expectations.
Must improve: Approach for 2025-26. Unless there’s an incredible turnaround, the Predators are unlikely to make the playoffs this season. However, they still have many of the same players under contract for the next few years. Nashville will need to figure out how to use its salary cap effectively or make a better plan to get more out of their talent moving forward.
Special panic factor: Fear of the washed vet. Steven Stamkos, at 34 years old, is having one of the worst seasons of his career, and there’s a real concern when a team gives a four-year, $32 million contract to a veteran whose performance drops off.
Buffalo Sabres (16-22)
Playoff odds: 3%
The Sabres have had a long playoff drought, now looking likely to reach 14 years without a postseason appearance. They were in good shape for a while and seemed ready to end the streak, but a shocking 13-game losing streak has almost completely ruined their chances.
Must improve: Defense and goaltending. The Sabres have some talented forwards like Tage Thompson, Jason Zucker, and Alex Tuch, and skilled young defensemen like Rasmus Dahlin, Bowen Byram, and Owen Power. However, the team needs to improve on defense.
They rank 27th in goals allowed per game, 26th in scoring chances allowed per minute, and 28th in save percentage. This lack of defense has been a major reason why Buffalo hasn’t made the playoffs in years.
Special panic factor: Will it ever end?? The longer a playoff drought goes on, the more pressure builds to end it. This can lead to poor decision-making and weigh heavily on the franchise, as seen with teams in the past. The Sabres may need a special group of players to overcome this history, like the 2004 Boston Red Sox or the 2016 Chicago Cubs did.
